Myanmar prepares for elections widely seen as a junta-controlled exercise

By Nava Thakuria* 

Trouble-torn Myanmar (also known as Burma or Brahmadesh) is preparing for three-phase national elections starting on 28 December 2025, with results expected in January 2026. Several political parties—primarily proxies of the Burmese military junta—are participating, while Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) remains banned. Observers expect a one-sided contest where junta-backed candidates are likely to dominate.

The Southeast Asian nation of nearly 55 million people is currently engulfed in civil war, with the military regime continuing to fight multiple people’s militias. Thousands of opponents remain imprisoned, including President Win Myint and Nobel Peace laureate Suu Kyi, after the February 2021 military coup. Polling will take place in only 274 of 330 townships (loosely equated to constituencies), raising serious doubts about the credibility of the exercise among the global community.

Myanmar’s Union Election Commission (UEC) is moving ahead with the process, with the second and third phases scheduled for 11 and 25 January 2026. The UEC has already deregistered several major political parties citing failure to meet requirements such as minimum membership numbers and functioning offices. Over 1.12 million Myanmar nationals now live abroad, and Thailand alone hosts an estimated five million Myanmarese refugees and migrant workers, both legal and undocumented. Their participation appears unlikely, further contributing to expectations of an extremely low voter turnout.

The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar on 19 November reported that the military regime has enacted a new election law imposing penalties of up to seven years in prison for speech, protest, distribution of leaflets, or incitement against the electoral process. Heavy punishment has also been introduced for damaging ballot papers or polling stations, and for intimidating candidates, election workers, or voters. Many citizens who criticized the process on social media have already received long prison sentences, and the number is expected to rise.

“Thousands have been killed and millions displaced across Myanmar in the last four years; many political opponents along with journalists are languishing in jails. Several prominent leaders have fled the country as Myanmar faces a severe economic crisis caused by financial mismanagement by the military rulers,” said a political activist based in Rangoon, requesting anonymity. He added that the Min Aung Hlaing-led junta aims to consolidate control through elections with little credibility, allowing fewer than ten parties to contest nationwide and 51 parties to contest in regional assemblies.

An editorial in the Mizzima newspaper, regarded as widely circulated and influential in the Land of Golden Pagodas, argued that since seizing power in 2021 the junta has worked “to consolidate its rule through a veneer of electoral legitimacy.” The continuing crackdown on dissent ahead of polling reveals the authoritarian foundation of the regime, it said.

“From the outset, the proposed election has been widely regarded as an attempt by the junta to legitimize its seizure of power through controlled and deeply compromised political processes. The military has promised a return to ‘disciplined democracy,’ a phrase long used to justify its enduring dominance,” the editorial stated. Critics and observers inside and outside Myanmar argue that under current conditions no election can be free, fair, or credible. Since the coup, thousands of activists, journalists, and civilians have been arrested, with many tortured or killed. Dissent has been met with violent repression, and the NLD has been dissolved under restrictive laws designed to prevent meaningful opposition.

The exile National Unity Government (NUG), formed by elected representatives who were denied office, continues to struggle for survival. It has urged the international community to denounce the elections as a sham and to refrain from sending observers. ASEAN states, seen as weak in their stance toward the junta, have called for cessation of violence but declined to send election monitors.

Neighboring countries, including India, have expressed concern about instability along border regions and the influx of migrants from Myanmar. Political observers believe the upcoming elections are unlikely to restore civilian rule under parliamentary norms while the military retains absolute power. The Tatmadaw chief could become the new President and appoint a trusted ally as commander-in-chief, while Parliament—under the military-drafted 2008 Constitution—may remain largely powerless in matters concerning military authority.

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*Senior journalist based in Guwahati