Why India-U.S. friction and India-China bonhomie will be short-lived

By N.S. Venkataraman* 

Many opinion makers argue that in international relations there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies. They point to the current strain in India–U.S. ties, noting that only a few years ago Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then U.S. President Donald Trump went out of their way to display personal warmth and friendship. 

Similarly, they highlight the present display of cordiality between India and China during the meeting before the SCO event, when Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of working together for mutual benefit, even though the two countries have fought bitter wars in the past where lives were lost on both sides.

This view, however, overlooks an essential truth: genuine and lasting friendship between nations requires the absence of fundamental conflicts of interest. Temporary setbacks can be resolved when such conflicts are absent, but when they exist, even periods of bonhomie are unlikely to endure.

In the case of India and the United States, the present friction appears to be short-lived because the two nations do not have deep-seated conflicts of interest. Both are committed to democracy and personal liberty, and many Indians admire the prosperity, technological strength, and freedoms enjoyed by Americans. The openness of American society, which welcomes people from across the world as residents and citizens, further adds to this admiration. At the same time, many Americans respect India’s cultural and civilizational traditions, which have evolved over centuries.

The recent strain has stemmed largely from President Trump’s decision to impose heavy tariffs on Indian exports, a move whose logic remains unclear and has been questioned by political observers, U.S. politicians, and informed citizens alike as shortsighted. Since this is not rooted in a fundamental clash of interests, the tension is expected to ease sooner rather than later. Indeed, Prime Minister Modi and his government have wisely chosen not to overreact to the White House’s abrasive rhetoric, treating it as transient rather than transformative.

India’s relationship with China, on the other hand, is burdened by inherent conflicts. China continues to occupy thousands of square kilometers of Indian territory seized during the 1962 war and maintains its claim over Arunachal Pradesh. Beijing’s proposal to construct massive dams in Tibet, with potential consequences for water flow into India, is viewed with deep suspicion. Many Indians also sympathize with Tibet, which China annexed by force, turning thousands into refugees. The Dalai Lama is revered in India, but vilified by Beijing, creating another source of distrust.

Indians also remember how Prime Minister Nehru, despite his trust in China, was betrayed in 1962. Today, China’s global ambitions and its desire for regional supremacy in Asia put it at odds with India, which Beijing sees as a stumbling block. China has not hesitated to criticize India at global forums, reinforcing the sense of mistrust. A faith deficit runs deep among Indians with regard to China, and many urge Prime Minister Modi to tread carefully, recognizing that current gestures of friendliness may mask long-term hostility. There is widespread concern that China will continue to press its territorial claims and may again adopt a more aggressive posture, especially once India’s relationship with the U.S. stabilizes.

History repeatedly demonstrates that the precondition for smooth and enduring ties between nations is the absence of conflicting interests. Where such conflicts exist, friendship is fragile and temporary. The India–U.S. relationship, despite present irritants, is fundamentally sound, while India’s relationship with China is inherently fraught.

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*Trustee, Nandini Voice For The Deprived, Chennai