India's ambition to achieve great power status and expand its influence beyond South Asia has sparked extensive academic discourse and fervent debate, along with vigorous rhetoric from political leaders and scholars. Anticipated changes in India's domestic and foreign policy, which could arise from a coalition government at the center, are expected to be predominantly positive.
This shift is seen as a means to implement checks and balances on the centralizing tendencies and right-wing leanings of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration. Such changes may further enhance Modi's accomplishments related to international engagement and economic growth while reinforcing India's standing in the global arena, particularly as coalition partners from the BJP celebrated India becoming the fifth-largest economy during Modi's previous term.
However, many scholars express skepticism about India's capacity to attain global power status, citing various challenges associated with its rise, including democratic erosion under Modi's centralized leadership.
Critics have highlighted a weakening of federal principles enshrined in the Indian Constitution during Modi's administration, pointing out that the central government has encroached on state powers, particularly in areas like agriculture, which is constitutionally reserved for the states. The formation of a coalition government could counteract the centralizing trends of Modi's government.
Hindutva
A notable rise in divisive tendencies, spurred by the Hindutva ideology promoted by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its affiliates, such as the RSS and Bajrang Dal, reinforces a model of majoritarian governance where smaller identities are expected to assimilate into a broader Hindu identity. This contrasts sharply with India's historical "salad bowl" approach, which celebrates unity in diversity.
The central government's failure to address violence in Manipur and the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019 have raised concerns regarding their ideological implications, leading skeptics to argue that the recent revocation of Kashmir's special status and its reclassification as a union territory might have temporarily quelled unrest, but at the cost of long-term stability.
Any perceived relaxation in security measures could provoke further violence, although a coalition government post-2024 elections could potentially moderate the BJP's Hindutva-driven agenda.
Political turmoil in Bangladesh
The issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh and the rise of radical Islamism near India's northeastern borders has gained urgency in light of recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, leading to the fleeing of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and subsequent communal violence. Bangladesh's border with India spans five states—West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura—making political instability in Bangladesh a pressing concern for India's security.
Rise of freebie politics
During election seasons, both the central and state governments typically engage in offering promises of free benefits as a means of electoral appeal. While such practices do not empower citizens through actual income or employment generation, they place a substantial financial burden on the government's coffers. The BJP-led NDA government previously made several populist announcements that may not serve the broader interests of society.
Insufficient domestic reforms
Despite the promotion of initiatives like "Make in India" and "Atmanirbhar Bharat," numerous economists contend that India’s domestic reforms remain inadequate to transform it into a manufacturing hub. They point to cumbersome regulations surrounding land acquisition and insufficient reforms of labor laws.
In comparison, India's economic contribution to global GDP stands at only 7 percent, while China's accounts for 18 percent. Despite its market-friendly policies, China is likely to maintain its pivotal role in global supply chains and production networks, while India's growth does not effectively translate into comprehensive development.
The distinction between quantitative growth and qualitative development highlights the need for better resource redistribution to improve citizens' quality of life. Although the Modi administration has introduced reforms in infrastructure, markets, and social sectors, it continues to be perceived as disproportionately pro-capitalist by many.
Heavy reliance on natural resource imports
India ranks among the largest importers of energy resources, facing challenges as its population grows and its industrialization relies heavily on conventional energy sources. Consequently, India often adopts a reactive foreign policy in response to the volatility of energy politics. The remarks of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar regarding accusations that India indirectly finances Russia's war underscore this issue.
He noted that "I have a country that has a per capita income of two thousand dollars," emphasizing the inability of many to afford higher energy prices. Jaishankar's comments highlight the urgent need for resource redistribution and a swift transition to alternative energy. Although the Modi government has made commitments toward renewable energy, progress has been slow and costly.
Ideological contradictions
Skeptics observe a disconnect between Prime Minister Modi's rhetoric and the ideology upheld by his party and its affiliates. They argue that while India's integration into the global economy invites foreign direct investment, the BJP’s ideology appears to favor isolationist strategies over structural integration with the global marketplace.
South Asian dynamics
Some critics argue that India has failed to assert its leadership in South Asia, let alone extend its influence beyond the subcontinent. Neighboring countries, once part of the Indian subcontinent, are increasingly redefining their identities in ways that often take on anti-Indian sentiments. When these smaller countries engage with China, which seeks to expand its influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, India’s security concerns diminish as Beijing becomes their favored partner.
The poor performance of organizations like SAARC and SAFTA, along with instances where New Delhi’s infrastructural efforts have been rejected, underscores smaller countries' hesitance to recognize India's leadership role. In conclusion, India is often perceived as a swing state rather than a central power around which others gravitate, like China.
Nevertheless, the country possesses the potential to emerge as a significant global player. To fully realize this potential, it must address the myriad concerns raised by skeptics. A coalition government may ameliorate some criticisms by curbing Modi’s centralizing and right-wing tendencies, but it cannot resolve all issues.
To become a true global power, India needs the capability to influence foreign policy directions globally, not merely adhere to its own policy objectives in response to global power dynamics.
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*Lecturer in Political Science, SVM Autonomous College, Jagatsinghpur, Odisha
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