UNEP report on how climate crisis is impacting displacement, global conflicts, declining health

By Shankar Sharma* 

A recent report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), titled "A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing," warrants urgent attention from our country’s developmental perspective. The findings, detailed in the report, should be a source of significant concern not only globally but especially for our nation, which has a vast population and limited natural resources. 

The UNEP report highlights that the world is now confronting a different reality compared to just ten years ago. While some issues remain unchanged, the rapid pace of transformation—fuelled by technological advancements, frequent natural disasters, and a volatile geopolitical climate—has created a new environment where nations can be destabilized more easily and frequently. 

The report points to a "triple planetary crisis" encompassing climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, all of which exacerbate ongoing human crises, including territorial conflicts, displacement, and declining health. 

This report is crucial for our leaders to consider. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres underscored the urgency of addressing these challenges during World Environment Day in June 2024, stating: "The battle to secure the planet's future will be won or lost in the next 18 months." Timely and effective action on climate change is imperative, and India's target for net zero emissions by 2070 has been criticized as woefully inadequate. 

The report delivers several key messages that our country must heed: 

1. We may have entered an era of "Polycrisis," characterized by overlapping crises that amplify and synchronize global challenges, including resource competition and social inequities, presenting severe environmental consequences. 
2. Despite efforts to tackle the environmental crisis, degradation continues. Essential factors driving this decline include increased resource extraction and fossil fuel consumption, leading to extreme weather events and biodiversity loss. Projections indicate a potentially catastrophic temperature rise by 2100, compounded by risks such as ancient microbes being released from thawing permafrost. 
3. The growing demand for critical minerals needed for net zero targets—alongside digital transformation—introduces new tensions affecting both planetary health and human wellbeing. This increasing demand could quadruple by 2040, leading to greater pressures on ecosystems and vulnerable communities. 
4. While artificial intelligence presents opportunities for growth, it also poses environmental challenges. Effective governance should incorporate environmental considerations and encourage sustainable practices within the AI sector. 
5. Rising armed conflicts are contributing to environmental degradation that will have long-lasting consequences, including pollution and resource scarcity that disproportionately impact vulnerable communities. 
6. Forced displacement, currently affecting one in every 69 people worldwide, leaves an environmental footprint and strains recovery efforts—significantly affecting public health and sanitation in various nations. 
7. Addressing these shifts requires a new social contract focused on inclusivity, engagement with diverse stakeholders, and redefining success beyond GDP metrics. 
8. Agile and adaptive governance can help accelerate progress on climate and biodiversity targets, allowing for shorter-term goals that adapt to the changing landscape. 
9. To enhance governance, accessible data and knowledge must be integrated, supporting better decision-making and effective responses to environmental changes. 
10. Embracing foresight is critical to making informed decisions that lead to a sustainable future, preventing the repetition of harmful past choices. 

Monitoring emerging risks and trends will help harness positive changes and mitigate negative impacts. In light of our country's large population and its vulnerable segments, along with the pressing strain on natural resources—evidenced by deteriorating health indicators due to pollution and declining freshwater sources—urgent discussions are essential regarding the UNEP findings. 

With a growing number of high-impact projects requiring land and water resources all sectors, we must critically review these developments and explore alternative approaches. Specifically, in the electric power sector, the proposed expansion of traditional energy sources could have devastating environmental impacts. Plans, such as the proposed addition of nuclear reactors and the expansion of hydro capacity, could exacerbate current environmental challenges. 

Therefore, the implications of these choices should be reassessed to prioritize sustainability. It would be a tragedy if officials at the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) and NITI Aayog are unaware of the alarming UNEP findings and fail to address these pressing concerns with our leadership. 

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*Power & Climate Policy Analyst. This article is based on the author's representation to the Chairperson and Vice Chairperson of NITI Aayog, New Delhi