Early indicators suggest a slowdown in economy, warns IIM-A survey of 1300 businesses

By Rajiv Shah

The latest Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) of the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A) has suggested that while business inflation expectations have decreased significantly by 29 basis points, falling to 4.21% in July 2024 from 4.50% in June 2024, and the average inflation expectation among firms over the past 12 months stands at 4.44%, overall, "early indicators suggest a slowdown in the economy."

The survey, carried out monthly at the Misra Centre for Financial Markets and Economy, IIM-A, said, the sales expectations for July 2024 continue to show a subdued trend. Also, approximately 64% of firms reported ‘somewhat lower than normal’ or diminished profits in July 2024, an increase from of 59% reported in May and June 2024. Approximately 1,300 companies -- primarily from the manufacturing sector -- participated in the survey.

The BIES claims to be a tool to assess economic slack by surveying business leaders about their short and medium-term inflation expectations. The monthly survey focuses on year-ahead cost projections and the factors impacting price fluctuations, such as profit levels and sales volumes. The survey targets businesses -- the price-setters -- rather than consumers, offering insight into their price level expectations.

A key benefit of the BIES is said to be its ability to provide a probabilistic evaluation of inflation expectations, which also reflects the uncertainty surrounding them. Additionally, it indirectly gauges overall economic demand conditions. The findings from this survey are claimed to be instrumental in grasping business inflation expectations and supplementing macroeconomic data essential for policy formulation.

According to the survey, the cost perception data for July 2024 suggest a moderation in cost pressures; however, the percentage of firms experiencing significant cost increases (over 10%) has slightly risen to 15%, up from about 13% in June 2024. The percentage of firms reporting moderate to significant cost increases (3.1% to 10.0%) has decreased to 46% in July 2024, down from 49% recorded in June 2024, it said.

At the same time, the survey regretted, sales expectations remained lacklustre in July 2024, with about 32% of firms reporting ‘much less than normal’ sales, a rise from 28% in June 2024. Additionally, approximately 56% of firms have indicated ‘somewhat less than normal’ or lower sales in July 2024, an increase from 54% during the March to June 2024 period.

The survey noted, around 64% of firms report ‘somewhat lower than normal’ or reduced profits in July 2024, an uptick from 59% noted in May and June 2024. Here, 'normal' refers to the average profit levels observed over the previous three years, excluding the Covid-19 period. "Overall, expectations regarding profit margins remain subdued in July 2024", it concluded.

Comments

The soundtrack of resistance: How 'Sada Sada Ya Nabi' is fueling the Iran war

By Syed Ali Mujtaba* The Persian track “ Sada Sada Ya Nabi ye ” by Hossein Sotoodeh has taken the world by storm. This viral media has cut across linguistic barriers to achieve cult status, reaching over 10 million views. The electrifying music and passionate rendition by the Iranian singer have resonated across the globe, particularly as the high-intensity military conflict involving Iran entered its second month in March 2026.

Kolkata dialogue flags policy and finance deficit in wetland sustainability

By A Representative Wetlands were the focus of India–Germany climate talks in Kolkata, where experts from government, business, and civil society stressed both their ecological importance and the urgent need for stronger conservation frameworks.

Beyond Lata: How Asha Bhosle redefined the female voice with her underrated versatility

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* The news of iconic Asha Bhosle’s ‘untimely’ demise has shocked music lovers across the country. Asha Tai was 92 years young. Normally, people celebrate a passing at this age, but Asha Bhosle—much like another legend, Dev Anand—never made us feel she was growing old. She was perhaps the most versatile artist in Bombay cinema. Hailing from a family devoted to music, Asha’s journey to success and fame was not easy. Her elder sister, Lata Mangeshkar, had already become the voice of women in cinema, and most contemporaries like Shamshad Begum, Suraiya, and Noor Jehan had slowly faded into oblivion. Frankly, there was no second or third to Lata Mangeshkar; she became the first—and perhaps the only—choice for music directors and all those who mattered in filmmaking. Asha started her musical journey at age 10 with a Marathi film, but her first break in Hindustani cinema came with the film "Chunariya" (1948). Though she was not the first choice of ...

Lata Mangeshkar, a Dalit from Devdasi family, 'refused to sing a song' about Ambedkar

By Pramod Ranjan* An artist is known and respected for her art. But she is equally, or even more so known and respected for her social concerns. An artist's social concerns or in other words, her worldview, give a direction and purpose to her art. History remembers only such artists whose social concerns are deep, reasoned and of durable importance. Lata Mangeshkar (28 September 1929 – 6 February 2022) was a celebrated playback singer of the Hindi film industry. She was the uncrowned queen of Indian music for over seven decades. Her popularity was unmatched. Her songs were heard and admired not only in India but also in Pakistan, Bangladesh and many other South Asian countries. In this article, we will focus on her social concerns. Lata lived for 92 long years. Music ran in her blood. Her father also belonged to the world of music. Her two sisters, Asha Bhonsle and Usha Mangeshkar, are well-known singers. Lata might have been born in Indore but the blood of a famous Devdasi family...

Maoist activity in India: Weakening structures, 'shifts' in leadership, strategy and ideology

By Harsh Thakor* Recent statements by government representatives have suggested that Maoism in India has been effectively eliminated, citing the weakening of central leadership and intensified security operations. These claims follow sustained counterinsurgency efforts across key regions, including central and eastern India. However, available information from security agencies and independent observers indicates that while the organizational structure of the CPI (Maoist) has been significantly disrupted, elements of the movement remain active. Reports acknowledge the continued presence of cadres in certain forested regions such as Bastar and parts of Dandakaranya, alongside smaller, decentralized units adapting their operational strategies.

46% own nothing, 1% own 18%: The truth about India’s land inequality

By Vikas Meshram * “Agriculture is the backbone of India” — this is what we have been hearing for generations. But there is a pain hollowing out this backbone from within: the unequal distribution of land. On one hand, news of farmer suicides, indebtedness, and rural migration keeps coming; on the other, agricultural land across the country continues to concentrate in the hands of a few wealthy individuals.

US study links ultra-processed diets to preterm birth, sparks concern in India

By Jag Jivan A growing body of scientific evidence linking ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption during pregnancy to adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes has sparked fresh concern among public health experts, with Indian nutrition advocates warning of serious implications for the country’s already strained maternal health landscape.

From Manesar to Noida: Workers take to streets for bread, media looks away

By Sunil Kumar* Across several states in India, a workers’ movement is gathering momentum. This is not a movement born of luxury or ambition, nor a demand for power-sharing within the state. At its core lies a stark and basic plea: the right to survive with dignity—adequate food, and wages sufficient to afford it.

Midnight weeping: The sociology of tragic vision in Badri Narayan’s poetry

By Ravi Ranjan* Badri Narayan, a distinguished Hindi poet and social scientist, occupies a unique position in contemporary Indian intellectual life by bridging the worlds of creative literature and critical social inquiry. His poetic journey began significantly with the 1993 collection 'Saca Sune Hue Kaï Dina Hue' (Truth Heard Many Days Ago). As a social historian and cultural anthropologist, Narayan pioneered a methodological shift away from elite archives toward the oral traditions and folk myths of marginalized communities. He eventually legitimized "folk-ethnography" as a rigorous academic discipline during his tenure as Director of the G.B. Pant Social Science Institute.

Search This Blog