'A billion could die': Why a South Asia ceasefire must lead to nuclear disarmament

By Bharat Dogra

The announcement of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan is a welcome and much-needed development. It offers a crucial pause in a region fraught with volatility, where even a minor escalation could spiral into catastrophic consequences. But while this temporary calm brings relief, it should also serve as a stark reminder of what remains at stake.

Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed nations with a combined arsenal of approximately 340 nuclear weapons. Their population densities far exceed the global average—331 per square kilometre in Pakistan and 483 in India, with some urban centers like Karachi Central exceeding 55,000 per square kilometre. In such environments, even conventional warfare would be disastrous. The use of nuclear weapons would be nothing short of apocalyptic.

While the possibility of nuclear conflict may seem remote, it cannot be entirely dismissed—especially when tensions flare. This is why the ceasefire must be seen not just as a diplomatic win but as a vital opportunity to reflect on the urgent need for de-escalation and disarmament.

Eric Schlosser, a leading writer and researcher on nuclear weapons, has warned:

“The latest studies suggest that a relatively small nuclear exchange (relative to the total number of nuclear weapons that exist in the world) would have long-term effects across the globe. A war between India and Pakistan, involving a hundred atomic bombs like the kind dropped in Hiroshima, could send five million tons of dust into the atmosphere, shrink the ozone layer by as much as fifty percent, drop worldwide temperatures to their lowest point in a thousand years, create worldwide famines, and cause more than a billion casualties.”

This chilling assessment underscores that the consequences of a South Asian nuclear war would not remain confined to the subcontinent. The environmental and humanitarian fallout would reverberate globally, disrupting ecosystems and economies far beyond the region.

Some military thinkers continue to advocate for tactical nuclear weapons as a more “manageable” option. But such thinking is dangerously flawed. As history has shown—particularly during NATO's Cold War-era war game “Carte Blanche”—even tactical nuclear weapon use could cause more civilian casualties than entire previous wars. Moreover, such weapons increase the risk of decentralized control, raising fears that extremist elements could access them. In Pakistan, where concerns about links between segments of the security apparatus and militant groups persist, this is a terrifying prospect.

The notion that tactical nuclear weapons are somehow "less dangerous" is an illusion. Any use of nuclear arms—strategic or tactical—crosses a line from which humanity may never return. The only truly safe course is total nuclear disarmament. Accidents, miscalculations, or unauthorized launches remain ongoing risks as long as these weapons exist.

The recent ceasefire must not be seen as the end, but rather the beginning of a serious commitment to long-term peace and nuclear risk reduction. The time to act is now—while diplomacy has momentum, and before a future crisis pushes the region back to the brink.

We must seize this opportunity to move decisively toward a world free of nuclear weapons. For ourselves, our children, and all life on Earth, there is no other path to safety.

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The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071, Earth without Borders, and Man over Machine—A Path to Peace

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