The farmer's burden: How oil, war, and climate are rewriting the price of food

By Vikas Meshram 

The scorching flames of the Middle East conflict are now slowly reaching the kitchens of ordinary people. The true price of this war is paid in daily markets, vegetable shops, and in the shattered minds of farmers. Expensive crude oil, skyrocketing fertilizer prices, and rising agricultural costs are together creating the conditions for global food inflation — and this crisis is directly tied to what people eat and drink every day.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued an important warning in its latest report. The Global Food Price Index rose for the second consecutive month, reaching 128.5 points in March 2026 — a full 2.4 percent higher than February. Compared to a year ago, this figure is more than one percent higher. Although it remains about 20 percent below the record levels of March 2022, the renewed upward trajectory is concerning. Markets behave like a pendulum — once they gain momentum, it becomes difficult to stop them.

If we trace the roots of this rise, the answer lies in one place: crude oil. The conflict in the Middle East has brought instability to energy markets. As the clouds of war darken, oil becomes expensive, and when oil becomes expensive, an invisible wave runs through the entire economy. Running tractors becomes expensive. Producing fertilizers becomes expensive. Transporting goods becomes expensive. Agriculture is the one sector whose costs rise from multiple directions simultaneously — and yet the price a farmer receives remains at the mercy of the market. When farming costs rise, the burden ultimately falls on the consumer's plate. This is as simple as elementary economics.

The first commodity to absorb the shock in this chain is wheat. Wheat prices globally rose 4.3 percent in March. In the United States, drought dashed crop expectations, while in Australia, farmers are considering reducing sowing due to expensive fertilizers. Corn prices rose 0.9 percent, because expensive oil increases the likelihood of greater ethanol demand, and weather uncertainties in Brazil and the United States have put pressure on supply. Rice prices fell somewhat, with a three percent decline in paddy prices — but experts believe this decline is temporary, as rising transportation costs continue to squeeze markets in exporting countries.

Vegetable oil prices surged dramatically, climbing to 183.1 points — a full 13.2 percent higher than a year ago. Palm oil reached its highest level since 2022. In April, this index surged further to 193.9 points — the highest level since July 2022. Behind this rise lies a complex chain of causation. Rising crude oil prices are increasing demand for biofuels worldwide. When producing ethanol from soybean oil becomes profitable, soybean oil prices shoot up. Supply from the Black Sea region has been disrupted due to the war, making sunflower oil expensive. Fear of declining production in Southeast Asia has sent palm oil prices skyward. Palm, soy, sunflower, and rapeseed — all four oils have become expensive simultaneously.

Sugar prices have also been caught in this storm. They rose 7.2 percent in March, largely because Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, is increasingly using its sugarcane to produce ethanol as biofuel demand rises. Sugar prices had reached their highest level since November 2025. In April, prices fell 4.7 percent on expectations of good production in India, Thailand, and Brazil — but no one can guarantee that this decline will hold.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero stated clearly: "The effects of the energy crisis and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are now reaching food markets. Expensive fuel and fertilizers are raising the cost of farming, and the burden of all this is ultimately falling on ordinary people." He further warned that if the conflict prolongs and fertilizer and energy prices remain elevated, farmers will have to make hard decisions — less fertilizer, less sowing, and a shift toward lower-cost crops. These consequences are not immediately visible, but in the next season they will deliver a powerful blow to production. And that is when food prices will truly explode.

The deepest wound of this crisis is felt in the lives of poor and middle-class families. In households where a large portion of income is already spent on food, a rise in the prices of flour, rice, oil, and lentils means less food on the plate. The wealthy see inflation — the poor must endure it. If the energy crisis, war, and climate change continue at this pace, food insecurity and malnutrition in the world's most vulnerable countries could deepen further. Food, milk, and oil — even the most basic human needs — are beginning to move beyond the reach of millions of people. This is not merely an economic crisis. It is a human crisis.

One side of the global food crisis is visible in the markets, but the other side lies within agriculture itself — and that side is far more painful. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) recently released its report, "Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India 2024." The findings are devastating: in the single year of 2024, a total of 10,546 people connected to the agricultural sector ended their lives. This represents 6.2 percent of the country's total 1,70,746 suicides. On average, nearly 28 farmers and agricultural laborers were dying by suicide every single day. This number is slightly lower than 2023, when 10,786 people died. But this marginal decline offers little comfort, because the ground reality has not changed. Looking at the cumulative trend of the past five years, one truth stands out starkly: approximately one farmer in India gives up on life every hour.

Another deeply troubling reality is hidden within this year's figures. Of the 10,546 people who died by suicide, a staggering 5,913 — that is 56 percent — were agricultural laborers. This proportion is the highest in the last five years. In 2020, it stood at 47.75 percent, meaning it has risen by eight percentage points in four years. Agricultural laborers rarely enter public discourse. When we speak of farmer suicides, we mostly think of landowning farmers. But the person who owns no land, who toils in someone else's fields, whose wages are inadequate against rising inflation — the suffering of that agricultural laborer remains hidden from society's view.

There is an important economic reason behind this shift. Over many years, the average farming family's income from agricultural production has been declining, while dependence on wage labor has been increasing. When farming profits cannot sustain a household, family members go out in search of wage work. But as fertilizer prices and fuel costs rise, even landowners begin giving laborers fewer days of work. Income proves insufficient, debt keeps growing, and a kind of deadlock emerges from which the path out becomes invisible.

Looking at state-wise figures, Maharashtra stands at the top. In 2024, it recorded 3,824 suicides by farmers and agricultural laborers — a full 36.26 percent of the country's total. That Maharashtra, considered the most progressive and economically powerful state in the country, consistently tops this grim chart raises fundamental questions about society's basic priorities. In 2024, floods and heavy rainfall damaged at least 20 lakh 37 thousand hectares of crops in Maharashtra — nearly half of the total 40 lakh 72 thousand hectares affected by extreme weather events across the entire country. Crops were lost, income was lost, debt remained — and the farmer's dam of endurance burst.

After Maharashtra, Karnataka recorded 2,971 agricultural suicides, Madhya Pradesh 835, Andhra Pradesh 780, Tamil Nadu 503, and Chhattisgarh 486. In terms of rate of increase, Karnataka leads with a 22.61 percent rise compared to the previous year. Rajasthan saw a 14 percent rise and Madhya Pradesh 7.46 percent. Andhra Pradesh, however, recorded a 15.67 percent decline — a small measure of relief. But the overall picture remains dark.

There is only one way forward: making farming viable. Adequate subsidies on fertilizers and seeds, guaranteed water availability, assured prices, and a system through which farmers receive fair value for their produce — these things sound simple but are in practice extremely difficult. Stopping wars, bringing energy prices under control, and solving climate change are beyond the capacity of any single country. But domestic policies can at least give the farmer one assurance: that the debt they have taken will not starve their family, and that even if their crop fails, they will not be broken.

The crises of malnutrition and food security could deepen further in the coming period if the energy crisis, geopolitical tensions, and the effects of climate change continue as they are. In countries and households where millions of people are already struggling with hunger, any further rise in food prices becomes a question of survival. And this question does not exist only in remote villages — it stands with equal intensity in the slums of cities and the laborer settlements of small towns. But no one takes notice of this most fundamental question.