Bihar elections: Realignments, challenges, and the shifting political landscape

By Sanjay Parate

The uncertainty surrounding leadership within Bihar’s opposition alliance has been resolved following the Mahagathbandhan’s announcement that Tejashwi Yadav would be its chief ministerial face if the alliance wins the upcoming assembly elections. In contrast, the BJP-led NDA has stated that its chief minister will be chosen only after the elections. While Nitish Kumar continues to represent the NDA’s public face, questions remain over whether he would retain the position in the event of an NDA victory.

Observers note that Nitish Kumar’s political maneuvering options have significantly narrowed, with the BJP appearing intent on consolidating its influence over the JD(U). Political analysts suggest that, irrespective of the electoral outcome, Nitish Kumar’s leadership future may be limited. Public sentiment in Bihar also reflects growing fatigue with his frequent political realignments over the years.

In the previous assembly elections, the NDA secured a narrow victory, with the Mahagathbandhan losing by margins as small as 12,000–13,000 votes in several constituencies. Allegations of irregularities in vote counting and voter list manipulation surfaced then, which opposition parties continue to cite. The Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls has once again raised concerns about potential disenfranchisement of disadvantaged groups, particularly Dalits, Adivasis, and backward communities. The Supreme Court’s intervention in related matters has somewhat reduced the possibility of large-scale irregularities this time, but mistrust of institutional neutrality persists.

The Mahagathbandhan’s electoral strategy appears more cohesive this year, particularly after lessons learned from the previous contest. Analysts note that Congress’s earlier decision to contest 70 seats—winning only 19—had weakened the alliance’s performance, while Left parties, with fewer seats, recorded higher strike rates. This time, cooperation within the bloc appears stronger, and the Left’s visibility on the ground is more pronounced.

The Mahagathbandhan’s manifesto prominently features social justice and land reform—issues long championed by Left parties. It pledges redistribution of surplus land under ceiling laws to landless and poor farmers, a reform first proposed under Nitish Kumar but never implemented. If executed, such measures could expand rural purchasing power and potentially stimulate industrial and employment growth. The manifesto also places unemployment, education, healthcare, and agriculture at the center of its economic vision.

Meanwhile, the BJP has largely refrained from contesting the election on its development record. According to the NITI Aayog’s 2021 report, Bihar continues to face significant socio-economic challenges: around 65 million people live in multidimensional poverty, and the state ranks among the lowest in India on key human development indicators such as nutrition, education, and health. UNDP’s 2022 data placed Bihar at 0.609 on the Human Development Index—below the national average of 0.644.

Social data highlight persistent inequality. Nearly 41% of women in Bihar are married before the age of 18, while the state ranks near the bottom in infant and child health metrics. School dropout rates remain high, with low college enrollment and limited access to health insurance coverage. Political violence during the campaign period has further raised questions about the state’s governance record.

The Mahagathbandhan views the current elections not only as a state contest but as an opportunity to strengthen the INDIA Bloc’s national presence after the bloc’s partial success in the Lok Sabha elections. The bloc’s performance in Bihar could thus shape the trajectory of opposition politics across India. For this, alliance partners—including the Congress—will need to align their strategies around broader socio-economic concerns rather than partisan calculations.

Nitish Kumar’s political future appears uncertain, while the BJP’s credibility faces tests amid declining economic and social indicators. The Mahagathbandhan’s success will depend on how effectively it converts popular discontent into a unified mandate. The outcome in Bihar, therefore, may serve as both a verdict on state governance and a bellwether for the evolving national opposition landscape.

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The author is Vice President of the Chhattisgarh Kisan Sabha, affiliated with the All India Kisan Sabha

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