South Asia cannot afford a war: The enormous human and nuclear risks of escalation

By Bharat Dogra

South Asia, with just 3% of the world’s land area but home to over 2 billion people, holds nearly 25% of the global population. This makes it one of the most densely populated regions on Earth. While the global average population density is about 60 people per square kilometre, South Asia’s is approximately 303—over five times higher.

In urban areas, this density skyrockets. For instance, Karachi Central has a density of 55,396 people per sq. km, and Kolkata has 24,252. Such extreme density makes the region particularly vulnerable to large-scale devastation in the event of a modern war, especially one involving advanced and highly destructive weapons.

To understand the stakes, consider this comparison: war-ravaged Ukraine has a population density of just 67, and Sudan only 29. In contrast, South Asia’s much higher density means that any war here could lead to far greater civilian casualties.

Amid growing concerns about rising tensions between India and Pakistan, it is crucial to remember that the region has previously stepped back from the brink of war. If both nations managed to avoid conflict in the past, they can do so again—if their leaders act with wisdom and maturity.

Both India and Pakistan are heavily armed, and both possess nuclear weapons—estimated at a combined total of around 340. In a hypothetical scenario where a conventional conflict escalates, a desperate situation could push one side to consider nuclear weapons. Even if unlikely, this risk cannot be entirely dismissed—and the consequences would be catastrophic for the region and the world.

The danger is compounded by the current global context. With major powers distracted by other conflicts, international mediation has weakened. The United Nations' influence has waned, and bilateral conflict-prevention mechanisms between India and Pakistan remain inadequate.

Now more than ever, both countries must take deliberate steps to de-escalate tensions. Their leaders have a responsibility not just to their own citizens, but to all of South Asia. A commitment to peace today will be remembered as a turning point that saved millions from misery.

Cultural and historical ties bind the people of both nations. Sacred sites, shared heritage, and deep familial connections should be reasons to build bridges, not wage wars. Improving relations can unlock economic and social benefits for both sides.

As the world reels from ongoing wars and crises, igniting a new conflict between two nuclear-armed nations would be a tragedy of unthinkable proportions. No war poses a greater risk than one involving nuclear weapons.

South Asia faces urgent development challenges. A war would derail progress, devastate economies, and scar generations. Even neighboring countries uninvolved in the conflict would feel the fallout—economically, socially, and environmentally.

There is only one responsible path forward: a swift, joint effort to step away from the brink and choose peace over peril.

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The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071, and Man over Machine—A Path to Peace

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