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Why Israel has failed to achieve its objective of vanquishing Hamas despite heavy casualties

By Sandeep Pandey* 
During the 7 October, 2023 attack by Hamas, 1195 Israelis were killed and 251 taken as hostages. There was worldwide condemnation of the ‘terrorist’ attack carried out by Hamas. In response Israel has killed approximately 70,000 Palestinians, which includes about 15,000 missing or presumed dead, close to 60% of whom are women, children and elderly and still continues to kill Palestinians on one pretext or the other.
Before the 2023 war began, 5200 Palestinian prisoners were in Israeli jails or captivity. The numbers increased to 10,000 by November, 2023. There is a category called Administrative Detention which allows Israel to keep Palestinians without any charge or trial indefinitely. Since 1967, 10 lakhs Palestinians have been in Israeli jails, which is 18% of the total Palestinian population. 40% male Palestinian population has been to Israeli jails at some time or other.
Soon after the war began Hamas offered a deal ‘everyone for everyone,’ implying release of all hostages held captive by Hamas in exchange for all prisoners in Israeli jails. In November 2023, Israel released 240 prisoners in exchange for Hamas releasing 81 Israeli, 23 Thai and 1 Filipino hostages, who had come to Israel to work as labourers. However, this 6 day truce worked out by Qatar after negotiations with Israel and Hamas did not last long and war resumed with Israel bent upon getting the hostages released through military action.
Israel continues its policy of detaining Palestinians. For every Palestinian released Israel arrested another Palestinian. More Palestinians were arrested than were released. That is how the numbers in Israeli captivity doubled. On 24 January, 2024 Isreal re-arrested a teenager who was released in violation of the terms of  agreement for swap. Whereas much hue and cry was made of hundreds of Israeli hostages, the thousands of Palestinian detainees were not being considered as hostages.
More death and destruction followed in Gaza as well as in West Bank in 2024. The suffering of Palestinians has always been disproportionate to that of Israelis.
Finally, a truce was arrived at by the intervention of Qatar, Egypt and US. It was going to be implemented in three phases. As part of first phase starting on 19 January, 2025, Hamas agreed to release hostages in eight stages in exchange for prisoners to be freed from Israeli captivity. This was to be accompanied by Palestinians returning to North Gaza and an increase in humanitarian aid. As part of second phase more hostages were to be released in exchange for more prisoners and Israeli Army was supposed to completely withdraw from occupied areas of Gaza. In the third phase reconstruction of Gaza was to be undertaken. Wounded Palestinians were allowed to go to Egypt for the first time since war began in the first phase itself.
The first phase has been successfully completed. On 19 January, 2025, 3 Israeli female hostages were released in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners and aid trucks with food and fuel were allowed to enter Gaza through the Rafa crossing. On 25 January, 4 Israeli female soldier hostages were released in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners. On 30 January, 3 Israeli hostage were released in exchange for 110 Palestinian prisoners. On 1 February, 3 Israeli hostages were released for 183 Palestinian prisoners. On 8 February, again 3 Israeli hostages were exchanged for 183 prisoners from various Israeli jails. On 15 February, 3 Israelis were freed in return for 369 Palestinians freed from Israeli jails. On 20 February, bodies of 3 Israeli hostages were released, however, the fourth body was discovered to be not that of Shiri Bibas, as was claimed earlier, and hence was returned to Hamas. On 22 February, 6 Israeli hostages were released but Israel went back on its word and did not release any Palestinian prisoners as body of Shiri Bibas was not yet handed over. Subsequently, the same day body of Shiri Bibas was located and handed over to Israel. On 27 February, bodies of 4 hostages were exchanged for 620 prisoners released from being detained in Gaza or from Israeli jails.
While Israel took objection to the publicised events at which Israeli hostages were being released, Israeli military was raiding houses of Palestinians who were set to be released.
Among the Palestinians released some had been in Israeli jail for two decades. For example, Bilal Yassin, 42 years, was released after being 20 years in Israeli jail.
In first phase, which was a 42 days truce, 33 hostages, including 8 bodies, were freed in exchange for about 1,755 prisoners and detainees. Total of 141 hostages have been released in the 2023 and 2025 ceasefires, of whom 114 are Israelis. In exchange, 1,995 Palestinians have been released. 59 Israeli hostages yet remain to be freed, some of whom are presumed to be dead.
Among the Israeli hostages who have died, some were slain by their captors, yet others were killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza.
However, the casualties on both sides could have been much less had Israeli government not been headstrong and continued the ceasefire in  November 2023 and completed the hostage-prisoner exchange then itself. History has shown that Israel has always had to release disproportionate number of Palestinian or Arab captives in exchange for a few Israelis. For example, when Hamas captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2006, he was released in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners in 2011. In 1985 as part of Jibril Agreement, named after Ahmed Jibril, leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command, 1,150 Palestinians were released in exchange for three Israelis kidnapped by his group. In 1983 more than 4,500 Palestinian prisoners were released in exchange for six Israeli soldiers kidnapped by Fatah in the 1982 Lebanon war.
Hence even if Israel might have had an upper hand in the wars against Palestine or the neighbouring Arab nations, it has invariably ended up releasing thousands of prisoners in exchange for tens of its citizens or soldiers, live or dead.
In the just concluded war, hopefully there will be no relapse, Israel has failed to achieve its objective of vanquishing Hamas and in the end has to agree to all the conditions that Hamas has laid out from release of prisoners to withdrawal of its forces to reconstruction of Gaza. From this perspective it is Hamas which has emerged victorious even though after paying a heavy price over which it had no control.
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*General Secretary, Socialist Party (India)

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