The great melt down: Rapidly melting glaciers reinforce the need for action at emission level and for water conservation
Glaciers hold 69 per cent of the world’s freshwater and are melting at a rapid rate. As the roof tops of the world melt away, the consequences are many.
This year’s theme for the United Nation’s World Water Day, celebrated on March 22, is Glacier Preservation. From this year, March 21, will be recognised as the World Day for Glaciers.
In December 2022, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers' Preservation and the setting up of an International Trust Fund for the Preservation of Glaciers. This initiative was supported by the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, and includes an international conference on glacier preservation to be held in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan in May this year. The concern by the President holds relevance for the world, and the implications of rapid glacier melting for his country and Central Asian region represent global scenarios.
Various reports have found that the cryosphere – regions on Earth covered by snow and ice – are among the worst affected by climate change. UNESCO, which monitors some 18,600 glaciers across 50 of its World Heritage Sites says one-third of those are set to disappear by 2050, whatever the temperature rise scenario. In the Hindukush Himalayas (HKH), alone, glaciers occupy approximately 73,173 sq km. These glaciers are melting at an unprecedented rate and the HKH could lose up to 75 per cent of their volume by the end of this century. Scientists warn of dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly two billion people who live downstream of the rivers that originate in the mountain region. Researchers found that Mount Everest’s glaciers have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years.
The 2023 report Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HI-WISE) from the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) mapped out for the first time the linkages between cryosphere change with water, ecosystems and society. Alarming findings of this report include:
- The average temperature in the region has increased by 0.28°C per decade between 1951 and 2020. The glaciers lost a mass of 0.28 metres of water equivalent per year (m.w.e) between 2010 and 2019 compared to 0.17 m.w.e. per year between 2000 and 2009 because of increased temperature.
- Nine out of 12 river basins have witnessed increased warming rates at higher elevations. The strongest impacts are being felt in the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Yangtze, and Indus Basins. Contribution of water from glaciers to the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus will increase through 2050 and then decrease by 2100.
- A quarter of snow cover could be lost under a high emissions scenario. The report quoted a study that predicted a decline in snowfall by 30-50 per cent in the Indus Basin, 50-60 per cent in the Ganges, and 50-70 per cent in the Brahmaputra between 2070 and 2100 compared to the average snowfall between 1971 and 2000.
- Ice and snow in the HKH are an important source of water for 12 rivers that flow through 16 countries in Asia. The availability of fresh water would be affected for the 240 million people who live in the Himalayan region as well as a further 1.65 billion who live downstream of the 12 rivers that originate in the mountains.
- Flash floods and avalanches will grow more likely in coming years if greenhouse gases are not sharply reduced.
Other findings are equally alarming.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the globe, and scientists are concerned that the thawing permafrost – a ground that remains permanently frozen – could potentially set free ancient bacteria and viruses, and pave the way for a host of new potential pathogens. Rivers in Alaska are turning orange as permafrost is melting and releasing frozen metals such as zinc, iron and copper into the waters.
Why is Tajikistan’s concerned?
Are the melting glaciers of Tajikistan representational of challenges the world will face due to climate change?
In June 2024 the authors travelled to Tajikistan via Uzbekistan to understand the situation of melting glaciers and how this accelerated melting is affecting the country and the region. We travelled to the Haftkul or Seven lakes in Zarafshan hills. Each lake has its own name: The lowest and first lake, is Nezhigon, then Soya, Hushyor, Nofin, Khurdak, the largest Marguzor, and the last Hazorchashma, all glacier-fed.
The Republic of Tajikistan is a young country with a population of 10 million, which emerged after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. It is the smallest of the five Central Asian countries that were formed. The country is landlocked, surrounded by China in the East, Uzbekistan in the West, Kyrgyzstan in the North and Afghanistan in the south. It is also the poorest member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and despite considerable income growth ranks 125 out of 189 in the Human Development Index (UNDP, 2019). The economy remains heavily dependent on Tajik labour migrants, whose remittances contributed around 30 per cent of GDP in 2019; making Tajikistan one of the most remittance dependent countries in the world.
A major part of this beautiful country is mountainous – almost 93 percent. The Pamir mountain ranges and the Alay mountain ranges are the source of many glacial fed streams and rivers that have supported agriculture and other water needs since ancient times. Three mountain chains found in the lower mountainous region - The Turkestan, Zarafshan, and Hisar mountains. These mountains too are the source of several glacial fed streams and rivers. The Fann mountains are part of the Pamir-Alay mountain ranges and are home to several beautiful lakes. There are 1,449 natural lakes in Tajikistan: Some 80 per cent of these lakes are located at in mountainous and highland areas, and are glacier fed.
Our research and interaction with the Tajiks help us understand the seriousness of the problem. Almost six per cent of Central Asian waters originate from glaciers and snow reserves of Tajikistan. Up to 500 cubic kilometers of water are accumulated in glaciers and snows of this country. Climate change is causing rapid glacier melting in the mountainous regions here. In a meeting at the Wilson Centre in Washington, Tajikistan’s ambassador shared that more than 1,000 of the 30,000 glaciers in his country have already melted. By 2050, this figure may drop by a third, which threatens flash floods from bursting ice lakes, and subsequent water scarcity.
Every year the country suffers from floods, avalanches and other water-related disasters. The mountainous regions of the country generate 98 per cent of the electricity through hydropower and so this situation is a point of concern on several levels.
Melting of glaciers in Tajikistan will lead to irreversible climate changes in Central Asia, desertification, agricultural crisis, decline of entire regions due to water shortage, complete destruction of the Aral Sea and may lead to a huge crisis due to water and food shortages due to reduced harvests. The main consumer of water in Tajikistan is irrigated agriculture, varying from 85 to 90 per cent of the total volume of water used. Irrigated agriculture is strategically important for food security and the economy, since it provides up to 90 per cent of agricultural production and contributes about 20 per cent of the national GDP, ensuring employment for the rural population, which constitutes more than 70 per cent of the total population.
According to World Bank’s Lilia Burunciuc, Tajikistan's annual economic losses due to floods and earthquakes amount to 400 million dollars and affects 500, 000 people. Central Asian countries lose 10 billion dollars annually to natural disasters.
From future tense to future secure
For the people living in the mountains, who have little role to play in climate change, adaptation measures need to escalate.
But melting glaciers will affect us all at different levels: Physical, economic, social, environmental, psychological, as this accelerated melting will affect access to water, increase conflict and impact peace.
Increasing glacier melting increases flows into lakes they feed in the upper mountainous regions and can cause floods. Increased flow in rivers can also cause flood. As the rivers run out of this glacial flow, drought will increase. Coupled with depleting groundwater levels, water resources will dry up.
Major action is needed for (a) Reducing emissions and (b) Decentralised water conservation that will help mitigate both, flood and drought.
Decentralised rainwater conservation will add to river flows and help in replenishing groundwater resources, thus improving chances of water security. These structures will also help reduce the intensity of floods.
Humans need to act rapidly, if they want to save their water towers, and themselves. Stakeholders working on bringing down emissions and net zero and those working on water need to work together to address the crisis. What happens in the hills and mountains will no longer remain restricted to these areas alone: disturbing ripples will be felt in the plains below and right up to the seas.
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*Indira Khurana is the Chairperson, Indian Himalayan River Basins Council. Ashok Khurana is Director General (Retd), CPWD
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