A new study from the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad suggests that television in India is far from fading away amid the digital boom, but is instead poised for significant growth, potentially reaching a staggering 1 billion viewers by 2029. Titled "Future of TV in India," the report by Professors Viswanath Pingali and Ankur Sinha challenges the notion of TV's decline, arguing that it is "quietly preparing for its next expansion" driven by rising internet penetration, economic improvements in rural and low-income areas, and demographic shifts.
The researchers examined a wide array of factors influencing TV viewership, including population structure, economic conditions, and the digital ecosystem. Through a regression-based analysis, they identified four key indicators: internet subscribers, gross state domestic product (GSDP) per capita, literacy rate, and dependency ratio. "Internet subscribers are the strongest and most consistent driver of TV audience growth across India—in overall, rural, and low-income regions," the study states, noting that a rise in internet penetration is "associated with a significant increase in TV viewership."
Contrary to expectations that the internet might erode TV's dominance, the findings reveal a complementary relationship. For instance, in their all-India regression, a 1 million increase in internet subscribers is estimated to boost TV audiences by approximately 2 lakh viewers, with the effect being statistically significant at a 95% confidence level. The authors explain this synergy: "As internet subscribers increase in the market, TV becomes more attractive," potentially motivating more households to acquire TVs while also expanding access to diverse content.
Income growth emerges as a crucial factor, particularly in underserved areas. The study highlights that "income growth matters primarily in rural and low-income states," where rising incomes lead to sharp increases in TV audiences. In rural India, a ₹1 lakh increase in GSDP per capita is projected to add about 170 lakh viewers, a statistically significant impact. For low-income states—defined as those with GSDP per capita below ₹1,14,100 from 2016 to 2024, such as Bihar/Jharkhand, Odisha, and Rajasthan—the effect is even stronger, with a similar income rise adding roughly 250 lakh viewers. "As incomes rise in these regions, TV audience increases sharply, while the effect is weaker and statistically insignificant in relatively affluent states," the report notes.
Demographic elements also play a role. Higher literacy rates and dependency ratios (the proportion of dependents like children and the elderly to the working-age population) are positively correlated with TV viewership in most models. A 1 percentage point increase in literacy rate could add 6 lakh viewers nationwide, while a similar uptick in dependency ratio adds 3 lakh. These factors are especially influential in rural areas, where literacy improvements yield 2.6 lakh additional viewers per percentage point. The study attributes this to TV's proven social impact, citing examples like same-language subtitling on Bollywood songs, which has "significantly improved literacy rates, especially in rural India." It also references research showing TV's correlation with women's empowerment, including "greater awareness of autonomy, greater financial independence, less unwanted pregnancy, negative attitude toward beating, a lower tendency of giving birth, a smaller family, and a lower preference level for sons."
The methodology drew from diverse sources, including TV audience data from industry reports, internet subscriber figures from the Department of Telecommunications, GSDP data from the RBI, and demographic stats from the Periodic Labor Force Survey. The authors used fixed-effects regressions to account for state-specific variables, ensuring robust predictions. In conclusion, the study asserts that "TV audience will continue growing steadily," with growth in urban and high-income areas fueled by literacy and ageing demographics, while rural and low-income regions will see boosts from income rises and internet access.
This optimistic outlook underscores TV's enduring role as "an authentic and trusted source of entertainment and news," even as digital platforms proliferate. The report, supported by the Brij Disa Centre for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, calls for recognizing TV's potential in fostering social change amid India's evolving landscape.
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*Freelance writer
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