Bangladesh after Hasina: The BNP's win and the India question

Mohd. Ziyaullah Khan* 

Bangladesh's latest parliamentary elections have delivered a sweeping mandate to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), marking one of the most consequential political shifts in South Asia in recent years. The party secured 212 of 300 parliamentary seats with close to 50 percent of the vote — a commanding victory that signals a dramatic reset in the country's political landscape.

The outcome was closely watched across the region, particularly in India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to BNP leader Tarique Rahman to congratulate him on his victory — Rahman had returned to Bangladesh after 17 years in exile — even before the formal declaration of final results.

Nearly 60 percent of voters turned out — a significant figure given the turbulence preceding the polls. The high participation reflected a strong public desire for political change after years of mounting dissatisfaction.

The elections came after a period of political upheaval. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced out of office in August 2024 following massive nationwide protests against her governance. Her party, the Awami League, was barred from contesting the election, and Hasina — now in exile in India — had called for a boycott.

Ironically, it was the very opposition space that had been curtailed during her tenure that ultimately swept to power. However, the transition is far from straightforward. BNP leaders have called for Hasina's extradition from India to face charges linked to the violent crackdown on protesters — an episode in which many lost their lives. A court in Bangladesh has sentenced her to death, intensifying the diplomatic sensitivity of the issue. The BNP has also urged India not to allow her to make political statements from Indian soil. This extradition question could become an early test of Dhaka–New Delhi relations.

The BNP's victory does not mean unchallenged dominance. The National Citizen Party, led by student leaders who spearheaded the anti-Hasina agitation, adds another layer of political pressure. The memory of young protesters killed during the unrest remains raw, and public expectations for accountability are high. Bangladesh's politics has long been deeply polarised, and without moderation and institutional strengthening, instability could resurface.

Victory at the ballot box is one thing; governing a strained economy is another. Rahman inherits an economy facing serious structural challenges: external debt exceeding $100 billion, public debt rising toward moderate risk levels, external obligations accounting for roughly 39 percent of GDP, foreign exchange reserves significantly depleted, non-performing loans above 24 percent of the banking system, and poverty edging back to 20–21 percent. A World Bank assessment warned that nearly two million people slipped back into poverty during the recent economic slowdown.

Youth unemployment remains particularly pressing. More than 650,000 graduates enter the job market annually, many struggling to find stable employment. Economic frustration was a key trigger for the protests that reshaped the country's politics. This election, therefore, is not merely about power — it is a test of whether political legitimacy can translate into economic renewal.

Previous elections in Bangladesh had been criticised or boycotted over fairness concerns. This vote was framed by the BNP as a battle to restore democratic institutions. A constitutional referendum was also held alongside the polls, with reports suggesting strong support for governance reforms. The electorate's message was clear: accountability, institutional reform, and a reset of the political system. Rahman's challenge now is to shift from oppositional politics to statecraft — requiring inclusion, administrative discipline, and economic realism.

For India, the new political order in Dhaka presents both risks and opportunities. Over the past decade, New Delhi had drawn closer to Sheikh Hasina's government. Security cooperation deepened, particularly after her administration acted firmly against Indian insurgent groups operating from Bangladeshi soil. Connectivity projects expanded, trade grew, and India benefited strategically from transit access to its northeastern states through Bangladesh.

History, however, tempers optimism. During the BNP's earlier tenure from 2001 to 2006, India had expressed concerns about insurgent groups operating from across the border. New Delhi will closely watch whether security cooperation remains robust under the new dispensation. Sensitive issues remain on the table: water sharing of the Ganga and Teesta rivers, protection of minorities — especially Hindus — border management, trade imbalances, and connectivity projects. Encouragingly, the BNP campaign avoided anti-India rhetoric, and senior advisers have indicated that Bangladesh seeks to reset ties with India on a balanced and pragmatic footing.

There is also a broader geopolitical dimension. Bangladesh's strategic location in the Bay of Bengal makes it central to regional power dynamics. Both China and the United States have welcomed the new government. Rahman will need to balance major powers carefully, while India must engage without appearing overbearing.

Tarique Rahman's political journey reflects Bangladesh's turbulent history. The son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and the late President Ziaur Rahman, founder of the BNP, he has long been a controversial figure. Convicted in corruption cases under the previous government — charges his supporters describe as politically motivated — he spent years in exile in London. Within the BNP, he consolidated control during years of repression, reshaped party leadership at the district level, and kept the organisation intact. His return signals a generational shift, and he now holds both a mandate and a moment.

If Rahman governs inclusively, strengthens institutions, and prioritises economic revival alongside regional cooperation, Bangladesh could regain growth momentum and restore investor confidence. If political polarisation deepens and reforms falter, old tensions may resurface quickly — creating space for external actors, including China and Pakistan, to complicate India's strategic calculus.

For Bangladesh, this is a test of democratic renewal. For India, it is a moment requiring steady, interest-based engagement rather than personality-driven diplomacy. The outcome will shape not only bilateral ties but also the strategic balance of South Asia in the years ahead.

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*Freelance content writer and editor based in Nagpur; co-founder, TruthScape