India’s population in 2025 stands at approximately 1.4 billion. In 1950, it was 359 million, rising sharply to 1.05 billion by 2000. The population continues to grow and is projected to reach around 1.7 billion by 2050.
The gravity of India’s population challenge becomes clear when considering its population density—464 people per square kilometer. In contrast, China has a density of 151, the USA 90, and Russia just 9 people per square kilometer. These comparisons show that India's population density is at an unacceptably high level. Some critics go so far as to describe the country as “overflowing with people.”
A few economists argue that with India’s large land area, natural resources, and strong agricultural base, the country would have been better off—economically and socially—if the population were around or under 1 billion. In this context, what India truly needs is a gradual reduction in population, not an increase.
However, in recent years, India’s population debate has taken a surprising turn. Despite earlier efforts by the government to control population growth, there is now a growing narrative—supported by some policymakers and commentators—suggesting concern over declining birth rates. Analysts warn that India may be approaching the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman and could soon fall below it. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan still have averages above three children per family, while states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala report averages below two. These are broad estimates.
Proponents of population increase warn of consequences such as an aging population and a shrinking workforce. They cite examples from Japan, South Korea, and China—countries grappling with the effects of low birth rates. China’s earlier one-child policy, which was later reversed, is often referenced as a cautionary tale. These analysts argue that India should learn from such international experiences and, to avoid similar issues, promote a three-child norm.
However, India’s situation is fundamentally different due to its high population density. Continued population growth could lead to severe socio-economic problems. One of the most pressing is unemployment. Despite a reasonably strong economy, India struggles with high unemployment. The issue is compounded by the fact that automation, mechanization, and technologies such as AI, robotics, and drones are reducing the need for manual labor, even in agriculture—the backbone of India's economy. Tractors, mechanized harvesting tools, and drone-based pesticide spraying have decreased agricultural employment opportunities, prompting migration from rural areas to already overcrowded cities.
Food security is another growing concern. A joint OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook report (2025–2034) notes that India is expected to contribute nearly 30% of the global increase in wheat output by 2034 and to surpass China as the largest rice producer. However, rising domestic demand could turn India into a net wheat importer. With agricultural land declining due to infrastructure and urban expansion, and unpredictable weather patterns caused by climate change, food supply could become increasingly fragile if population growth remains unchecked.
Some argue that fears of an aging population are exaggerated. Many people remain active well into their 70s, thanks to technological and healthcare advancements. Also, even with a declining fertility rate, increasing life expectancy has led to a continued rise in overall population. Thus, population growth persists in many areas despite a fall in the average number of children per family.
India’s high population has also contributed to a growing trend of outward migration, as many Indians seek better opportunities abroad. This has led to concerns in host countries about demographic shifts, and even to anti-immigrant violence in places like Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United States. These tensions reflect the broader implications of overpopulation.
It is worth noting that the push for larger families has mainly come from a few political leaders, such as the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, and others from states where fertility rates are falling. These views often reflect a limited regional perspective rather than a comprehensive understanding of the national scenario.
There is an urgent need for the Government of India to develop a clear population policy. This includes determining an optimal population size that ensures reasonable economic and social opportunities for all citizens. A figure around one billion may be a more sustainable target. Achieving and maintaining this level would require a gradual population decline, stabilizing later at the replacement level of 2.1 children per family.
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*Trustee, Nandini Voice for the Deprived, Chennai
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