Skip to main content

Coral adaptation unlikely to keep pace with global warming, says a team of international scientists

By Aishwarya Singhal, Lubna Das
 
A team of international scientists has discovered how coral adaptation to ocean warming and marine heatwaves will likely be overwhelmed without rapid reductions of global greenhouse gas emissions.
In a groundbreaking study led by Dr. Liam Lachs, researchers from Newcastle University have revealed that coral heat tolerance adaptation via natural selection could keep pace with ocean warming, but only if Paris Agreement commitments are realized, limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius.
“The reality is that marine heatwaves are triggering mass coral bleaching mortality events across the world’s shallow tropical reef ecosystems, and the increasing frequency and intensity of these events is set to ramp up under climate change”, said Dr. Lachs.
“While emerging experimental research indicates scope for adaptation in the ability of corals to tolerate and survive heat stress, a fundamental question for corals has remained: can adaptation through natural selection keep pace with global warming? Our study shows that the scope for adaptation will likely be overwhelmed for moderate to high levels of warming”.
The international team of scientists studied the corals of Palau in the western Pacific Ocean, developing an eco-evolutionary simulation model of coral populations.
This model incorporates data on the thermal and evolutionary biology of common yet thermally sensitive corals, as well as their ecology. Published today in Science, the study simulates the consequences of alternative futures of global development and fossil fuel usage that were created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Prof. Peter Mumby, a co-author of the study based at The University of Queensland, explains that “our world is expected to warm by 3-5 degrees by the end of this century if we do not achieve Paris Agreement commitments. Under such levels of warming, natural selection may be insufficient to ensure the survival of some of the more sensitive yet important coral species”.
“We can still have fairly healthy corals in the future, but this requires more aggressive reductions in global emissions and strategic approaches to coral reef management”.
Dr. Lachs explains that “with current climate policies, we are on track for a middle-of-the road emissions scenario – leading to around 3 °C of warming – in which natural selection for heat tolerance could determine whether some coral populations survive.”
“From modelling this current emissions scenario, we expect to see profound reductions in reef health and an elevated risk of local extinction for thermally sensitive coral species. We also acknowledge that considerable uncertainty remains in the “evolvability” of coral populations”.
Study co-author Dr. James Guest, who leads the Coralassist Lab, says there is an urgent need to understand how to design climate-smart management options for coral reefs. He mentions, “we need management actions that can maximise the natural capacity for genetic adaptation, whilst also exploring whether it will be possible to increase the likelihood of adaptation in wild populations."
“One such option, still at the experimental stages to date, would be the use of targeted assisted evolution interventions that, for instance, could improve heat tolerance through selective breeding,” Dr. Guest said, referring to a separate paper recently published by the Coralassist Lab.
Coral reefs are remarkably diverse and critically important marine ecosystems. “Taken together”, says Dr. Lachs, “the results of our models suggest that genetic adaptation could offset some of the projected loss of coral reef functioning and biodiversity over the 21st Century, if rapid climate action can be achieved”.

Comments

TRENDING

Workers' groups condemn Gujarat Ordinance increasing working hours, warn of statewide agitation

By A Representative   At a consultation organised today by the Asangathit Shramik Hit Rakshak Manch at Circuit House in Ahmedabad, leaders of major trade unions and labour rights organisations strongly opposed the Gujarat government’s recent ordinance amending the Factories Act and the draft rules notified under the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) Code, 2020. Around 50 representatives from central trade unions, independent unions, and labour welfare organisations participated in the meeting.

The myth of population decline: India’s real challenge is density, not fertility

By N.S. Venkataraman*   India’s population in 2025 stands at approximately 1.4 billion. In 1950, it was 359 million, rising sharply to 1.05 billion by 2000. The population continues to grow and is projected to reach around 1.7 billion by 2050.

How natural and organic farming can be a key to combating the climate crisis

By Raj Kumar Sinha*  On July 9, while addressing the “Sahkar Samvad” in Ahmedabad with women and workers associated with cooperatives from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, Union Home Minister Amit Shah emphasized that natural farming is essential for both our health and the health of the soil. This is a significant statement in the context of addressing the climate change crisis. Natural farming can play a crucial role in combating climate change. Also known as organic farming, it is a system of agriculture that can increase food production without harming the environment. Natural farming has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 35% to 50%.

Another 'honor' killing in Tamil Nadu: Caste pride has murdered love, again

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat*  Once again, Tamil Nadu has witnessed a brutal so-called 'honor' killing. This time, it is Kevin Selvaganesh, a 27-year-old software engineer from the Scheduled Caste community, who has been hacked to death by the family of the girl he loved since childhood. Kevin, a brilliant student employed at Tata Consultancy Services, was in a relationship with Subashini, his schoolmate and girlfriend. The couple, both well-educated and professionally qualified, had plans to marry. Yet, that love story ended in bloodshed — sacrificed at the altar of caste pride.

From Kailasa to Lodonia: The business of inventing nations in India

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat*  This is the story of India—and the 'ideas' and 'imagination' that shape it. Some years ago, someone announced the creation of the 'United States of Kailasa,' a fictional nation 'founded' by Swami Nithyananda, who remains wanted in multiple criminal cases in India, including rape and murder. Remarkably, representatives of this fabricated country even managed to 'participate' in various United Nations events, including sessions of CEDAW in Geneva.

The GMO illusion: Three decades of hype, harm, and false hope

By Sridhar Radhakrishnan  Three decades of hype, billions of dollars spent, and still no miracle crop. It's time to abandon the GMO biotech fairy tale and return to the soil, the seed, and the farmer. “Trust us,” they said. “GMOs will feed the world.” Picture a world where there is plenty of food, no hunger, fields grow without chemical pesticides, children are saved from malnutrition, and people live healthily.

'Bengali Muslim migrant workers face crackdown in Gurgaon': Academic raises alarm

By A Representative   Political analyst and retired Delhi University professor Shamsul Islam has raised serious concerns over the ongoing targeting and detention of Muslim migrant workers from West Bengal in Gurgaon, Haryana. In a public statement, Islam described the situation as "brutal repression" and accused law enforcement agencies of detaining migrants arbitrarily under the pretext of verifying their citizenship.

Deaths in Chhattisgarh are not just numbers – they mark a deeper democratic crisis

By Sunil Kumar  For a while, I had withdrawn into a quieter life, seeking solace in nature. But the rising tide of state-sponsored violence and recurring conflict across India has compelled deeper reflection. The recent incidents of killings in central India—particularly in Chhattisgarh—are not isolated acts. They point to a larger and ongoing crisis that concerns the health of democracy and the treatment of marginalised communities.

100 yrs of RSS as seen by global media house: Power, controversy, push for Hindu-first India

By Rajiv Shah  On a blistering summer evening in Nagpur, nearly a thousand men in brown trousers, white shirts, and black caps stood in formation as a saffron flag was raised, marking a graduation ceremony for Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) workers. This vivid scene, described in a recent FT Weekend Magazine article, “A hundred years after it was founded, India's Hindu-nationalist movement is getting closer to its goal of a Hindu-first state,” captures the enduring presence of the RSS, a century-old Hindu-nationalist organization.