Trump’s tariff offensive and the strategic dilemma facing India

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra*

India will face tariffs of 25 per cent on its exports to the United States effective from August 7, as per an executive order issued by President Donald Trump. His displeasure is not confined to the high tariffs India maintains against the US; he also criticized New Delhi’s defence deals and energy purchases from Moscow, dismissed the BRICS forum of which India is a member, and even called India a “dead economy.” These statements raise an important question: is the tariff hike purely a trade measure, or does it reflect deeper strategic dissatisfaction with India’s approach to its relationship with the US?

Prominent American officials and strategic experts such as Ashley J. Tellis and Lisa Curtis argue that despite India’s economic liberalization since 1991 and its military modernization, including procurement of arms and technologies from major powers, it still lags far behind China on nearly all indicators of national power—and is likely to continue doing so for decades. Even with India's massive investments in emerging technologies, matching China’s superiority in fields like artificial intelligence, cyber and space technologies, and energy innovation remains a distant goal. These experts believe that India’s foreign policy, centered on multipolarity, leaves it vulnerable to Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and South Asia. They contend that India’s approach ultimately helps reinforce the positions of China and Russia in the global order and undermines the US-led rules-based system. Therefore, they advocate that India abandon its long-standing policy of strategic autonomy and fully align with the United States through a tighter security framework.

While Indian experts highlight India’s growing alignment with the US through defence agreements and cooperation on critical technologies, US experts note India’s parallel engagements with Russia and even China. India continues to support Global South multilateralism, which often positions itself as an alternative to US-dominated institutions. According to American perspectives, India’s multi-alignment strategy dilutes US influence and obstructs efforts to create a more unified anti-China front.

India, however, sees pitfalls in aligning too closely with the United States. Such alignment could create moral or legal obligations to support US actions that contradict India’s own values or strategic interests. American foreign policy has often served its global ambitions without consistency in moral principles—supporting authoritarian regimes in Central Asia during the 1990s while promoting democracy in the Middle East during the Arab Spring, for instance. The US has also shown a double standard in its unwavering support for Israel, despite allegations of genocide in Gaza, while advocating for Ukraine’s sovereignty.

India’s stance on issues of war and peace is informed by its own developmental history, strategic limitations, and cultural values. Its continued dependence on Russian defence supplies and discounted oil imports is rooted in longstanding ties and current economic needs. Moreover, India’s foreign policy promotes coexistence with various systems of governance, making it unwilling to support American-style democracy promotion globally.

India also views the QUAD not as a formal military alliance but as a platform for broader cooperation. American policymakers may wish India to commit more strongly to its military aspects, but India remains wary of provoking China or escalating regional tensions. This caution has deep historical roots. India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, attempted peaceful coexistence with China through the 1954 Panchsheel Agreement, and even after the 1962 border war, efforts continued to normalize relations and maintain trade. India still believes peaceful coexistence with China is possible and fears that a tight alliance with the US could foreclose that option permanently.

President Trump’s “America First” approach, which sidelines long-standing partnerships, signals that India cannot expect to resolve the tariff issue merely by aligning more closely with the US. The larger divergence in values, interests, and strategic worldviews means that India must tread carefully, maintaining its autonomy while navigating an increasingly polarized global order.

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*Senior Lecturer in Political Science, SVM Autonomous College, Jagatsinghpur, Odisha

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