Taiwan strait at a crossroads: Navigating internal strains and external pressures

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra* 

The Taiwan Strait—widely recognized for its role in global technology supply chains, including semiconductor and artificial intelligence chip production—has become an increasingly contested space in the broader Indo-Pacific strategic environment. As geopolitical competition intensifies, particularly involving China and the United States, the strait appears to be facing growing external pressure alongside internal political and infrastructural challenges.

Military exercises by China around the strait have become more frequent, contributing to regional security concerns. These maneuvers, often accompanied by aerial and naval operations, signal Beijing’s continued interest in asserting its claims over Taiwan. China’s leadership, under President Xi Jinping, has reaffirmed its intent to pursue reunification under the "One China" policy, which remains at odds with Taiwan's current political and social trajectory. While Taiwan’s population largely supports democratic governance and autonomy, Chinese information campaigns have aimed at influencing public sentiment, though their overall impact remains limited.

Taiwan’s strategic partnership with the United States has also undergone shifts, especially during the Trump administration, which emphasized an “America First” approach. This policy encouraged partners like Taiwan to increase defense spending as a condition for sustained U.S. support. In response, the Taiwanese leadership has sought to boost defense allocations. However, internal political divisions have complicated budget approvals, potentially undermining timely responses to evolving security threats.

The domestic political landscape in Taiwan has become increasingly polarized. The longstanding rivalry between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) has deepened, with each accusing the other of compromising Taiwan’s interests. The DPP alleges that the KMT is overly conciliatory toward Beijing, while the KMT criticizes the DPP for authoritarian tendencies. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), the third-largest political force, has expressed concerns over what it describes as politically motivated investigations. Recent political tensions have led to confrontations in the legislature and delayed policy implementation, including crucial decisions on defense appropriations. This climate of distrust has extended into society, where partisanship has increasingly shaped public discourse. Such fragmentation raises concerns about whether Taiwan's political institutions can maintain coherence in the face of external challenges.

Energy dependence presents an additional layer of vulnerability. In May, Taiwan decommissioned its last nuclear reactor, completing a long-term shift away from nuclear power that began during its transition from military rule to democracy. This move, influenced by sustained anti-nuclear sentiment, has significantly reduced domestic energy production. With roughly 98 percent of its energy now imported—mainly in the form of oil, gas, and coal—Taiwan is increasingly exposed to disruptions in global supply chains. Given China’s strategic position and naval capacity, there is concern that in a conflict scenario, maritime access could be restricted, posing significant risks to energy security.

At the same time, Taiwan’s energy infrastructure is under strain. Demand from its high-tech manufacturing sector is growing, yet blackouts have become more common due to limited generation capacity, aging power grids, and inadequate energy storage systems. These issues further complicate efforts to ensure economic and national resilience.

The Taiwan Strait today stands at the intersection of major strategic, political, and infrastructural fault lines. While external pressures, particularly from China, continue to shape its geopolitical environment, internal divisions and resource vulnerabilities play an equally critical role in determining the island’s readiness and resilience. Addressing these domestic challenges will be essential if Taiwan is to navigate the increasingly complex regional landscape with confidence and autonomy.

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*Senior Lecturer in Political Science, SVM Autonomous College, Jagatsinghpur, Odisha