Is Russia’s global influence waning following prolonged entanglement with Ukraine?

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra* 

The dominance of strongman Vladimir Putin on Russia’s political stage since the turn of the century marked a decisive shift away from the post-Soviet era’s pro-Western foreign policy. Putin openly criticized Soviet leaders like Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin for their role in the USSR’s dissolution and their reliance on Western integration as a path to progress. Under Yeltsin, Russia had sought closer political and economic ties with Europe and the U.S., but Putin viewed this as a betrayal of Russia’s historical grandeur. Determined to restore Moscow’s lost glory, he pursued a strategy of reuniting former Soviet territories—often through coercion.  

Yet Putin was pragmatic. Before flexing Russia’s geopolitical muscles, he prioritized consolidating power at home and securing strategic partnerships abroad. He cooperated with the U.S. on shared interests, such as the Global War on Terror and countering Iran’s nuclear program, while championing authoritarian stability as an antidote to the chaos of the Arab Spring. His disdain for Western-backed democratization movements allowed him to cultivate ties with rival Middle Eastern regimes—from Iran and Syria to Israel and Saudi Arabia—even mediating between adversaries. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, many regional players, including Israel and the Trump administration, initially hesitated to condemn Moscow.  

The Unraveling of a Strategy

However, Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine has become a tipping point, eroding the influence Putin painstakingly built. As Moscow diverted military and economic resources to the conflict, neighboring states in the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe began asserting greater autonomy, diversifying trade and security partnerships to reduce dependence on Russia.  

The Middle East, once a showcase of Putin’s diplomatic prowess, now highlights his overextension. Israel’s devastating campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah—and its direct strikes on Iranian assets—placed Putin in an impossible bind. He refused to condemn Hamas, framing it as a “national liberation” movement, yet stopped short of endorsing Israel’s retaliation, alienating both sides. Meanwhile, Syria’s embattled Assad regime, long propped up by Russian support, faces existential threats, raising doubts about Moscow’s ability to shield its allies.  

Most damningly, when Iran—a critical partner that supplied drones and weapons for Russia’s war in Ukraine—pleaded for support against Israeli and U.S. strikes, Moscow offered only feeble mediation. This impotence has fueled anger in Tehran, where officials increasingly question the value of alignment with a patron stretched thin by its Ukrainian quagmire.  

A Pyrrhic Pursuit of Empire?

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was meant to resurrect Russia’s Soviet-era sphere of influence. Instead, it has accelerated its decline. The war has exposed Moscow’s dwindling capacity to simultaneously wage a large-scale conflict, maintain regional hegemony, and uphold strategic alliances. As resource shortages and battlefield losses mount, even traditional partners are recalibrating their ties with a diminished Russia.  

The central question now is whether Putin’s obsession with territorial reconquest has backfired—sacrificing long-term influence for short-term gains. The answer, increasingly, appears to be yes.  

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*Senior Lecturer in Political Science, SVM Autonomous College, Jagatsinghpur, Odisha