At the upcoming G7 summit in Canada, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited as a special guest, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau citing two main reasons: India’s rise as the world’s fifth-largest economy and its status as the most populous nation. While economic growth is undoubtedly a point of pride, the latter distinction—India’s population—raises an important question: should this be seen as a strength or a source of growing concern?
India has not conducted a national census since 2011, leaving the current population figures largely speculative. Estimates place the population at around 1.4 billion, with projections reaching 1.8 billion by 2050. Despite modest declines in fertility and death rates, the annual population growth remains between 1.5% and 2%. The next census, scheduled for 2026, will provide a more accurate demographic picture, but until then, policymaking remains uninformed by crucial data.
Over the past eleven years, the government under Prime Minister Modi has largely neglected population control as a policy priority. Rather than initiating serious national debate or programs on population stabilization, the issue seems to have been left to chance—or divine intervention. A recent decision by the Andhra Pradesh government to offer financial incentives for larger families stands in stark contrast to global trends, where population stabilization is considered vital for sustainable development.
Supporters of population growth often argue that India’s growing economy can absorb and even benefit from a larger labor force. Indeed, India's food security has improved dramatically: it is now the world’s largest rice producer, with more than 38 million tonnes of stockpile, far exceeding the buffer norm. Government schemes distribute this surplus to millions of low-income citizens, reinforcing the idea that population size is not yet a strain on resources.
However, the key challenge is not food—but employment.
Despite strong GDP growth, India continues to struggle with job creation, especially for its vast youth population. The problem is poised to worsen with the advance of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and drone technology. These technologies threaten millions of traditional jobs in manufacturing, services, and administration. While new sectors will emerge, they are unlikely to absorb the displaced workforce at the scale required.
With AI systems now capable of writing software, generating business presentations, or even creating film-quality videos through simple text prompts—as seen in Google’s recent launch of Veo 3—many white-collar jobs are also at risk. This technological shift, when combined with population growth, risks leading to large-scale unemployment, which could fuel social unrest despite material improvements in food distribution and infrastructure.
Facing domestic employment constraints, increasing numbers of Indians are seeking opportunities abroad. India now leads the world in outbound migration, with an estimated 2.5 million people emigrating annually.
While Indian migrants are generally seen more favorably than others due to higher skill levels, the growing scale of this migration is beginning to raise concerns in the West. Countries like the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia—historically popular destinations for Indian students and workers—are gradually tightening immigration norms.
Recent years have seen increasing resistance to immigration in the West, particularly in Europe and North America. These regions are already grappling with the political and cultural implications of earlier migration waves, especially from countries with sharply differing religious and social norms. The experience of Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel—whose open-door policy led to widespread social tensions—is a cautionary tale.
Canada, long seen as a haven for migrants, is now witnessing backlash as it faces internal debates over rising migration levels, their impact on public policy, and even allegations of hosting separatist elements. In the US, strong opposition to undocumented migrants—especially from Mexico and Latin America—has become a central issue in national politics.
Although Indian migrants are generally perceived as law-abiding and skilled, they are not immune to this changing sentiment. As their numbers grow and demographic impacts become more visible, Indian migration too could face increasing restrictions.
Western nations are beginning to view India’s unchecked population growth as not merely a domestic issue but a global one. As migration pressure intensifies, the demographic impact on smaller population bases in Europe and North America will be significant—economically, culturally, and politically. This could eventually influence foreign policy decisions and bilateral ties.
It is crucial for Indian policymakers to recognize that population management is no longer just a matter of internal resource planning—it has global ramifications. Ignoring this reality not only puts strain on India’s own economic and social fabric but also risks complicating its relationships with countries that are vital partners in trade, education, and geopolitics.
India’s population is both an asset and a liability. The challenge lies in ensuring that it becomes a demographic dividend, not a burden. For that, clear-headed policy, data-driven governance, and long-term planning are essential. The time for passive indifference is over. India's leaders must treat population stabilization as a national priority—before it turns into an unmanageable crisis with global consequences.
---
*Trustee, Nandini Voice for the Deprived, Chennai
Comments