India to witness 43% rise in extreme rainfall by 2030, 2.5-fold surge in heatwave days: Study

By Rajiv Shah

A groundbreaking study released by IPE Global and Esri India has warned that India is on course to experience a 43% increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events and a 2.5-fold rise in heatwave days by 2030. Titled "Weathering the Storm", the study paints a stark picture of the country becoming simultaneously hotter and wetter due to the accelerating impacts of climate change.

The research, launched at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, reveals that metropolitan cities including Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna and Bhubaneswar will see a twofold increase in heatwave days. Extended heat conditions are expected to drive more frequent and erratic rainfall events, with eight out of ten Indian districts likely to face such extremes by the end of the decade.

Data from the study indicates that between 1993 and 2024, India witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heatwave days during the March-to-September period, with a 19-fold increase recorded in the past decade alone. The monsoon season, too, has shown signs of transformation, marked by prolonged summer-like conditions and greater unpredictability in rainfall.

Lead author Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability at IPE Global, stressed that climate extremes are set to intensify further with tier-I and tier-II cities bearing the brunt. "Around 72% of these urban centres are likely to face increased heat stress and rainfall extremes, accompanied by storm surges, lightning, and hailstorms. We must adopt hyper-granular risk assessments and establish climate-risk observatories to safeguard our agriculture, industry, and infrastructure,” he said.

The study identifies Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur as particularly vulnerable, with over 80% of districts in these states projected to suffer from both heat stress and extreme rainfall events. Coastal districts are also at high risk, with 69% likely to experience extended summer discomfort by 2030, a figure expected to rise to 79% by 2040.

Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, noted that the findings echo the recent global warnings on extreme heat. “Nearly all countries of the Global South, including India, must now grapple with improving living standards while urgently addressing climate threats. This study is a clarion call to act—leveraging innovation and preparedness to turn risk into resilience.”

The study also found a clear linkage between areas experiencing frequent heatwaves and those witnessing incessant rainfall, especially in the JJAS season. Many of these districts are undergoing a 63% change in land use and land cover, driven by microclimatic disruptions such as deforestation, mangrove loss, and wetland encroachment.

Agendra Kumar, Managing Director of Esri India, highlighted the critical role of geospatial tools in addressing climate challenges. “The intensifying climate extremes are no longer anomalies—they are now patterns. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology enables data-driven planning, infrastructure resilience, and public preparedness. We are committed to helping India and its institutions build a sustainable, climate-adaptive future.”

The study proposes several strategic interventions, including the establishment of a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) for real-time monitoring and forecasting of chronic and acute heat and rainfall risks. It also recommends the development of risk-financing instruments and the appointment of heat-risk champions within district disaster management authorities to localize and accelerate mitigation efforts.

Offering a first-of-its-kind district-level assessment of heat and rainfall extremes in India, the study argues for more localized climate risk modeling. Global models alone, it says, are insufficient to address the complex and non-linear dynamics of climate change on the ground.

Using a dynamic ensemble of climate models and spatial analyses, the research presents projected scenarios for 2030 and 2040, offering empirical evidence of exposure to extreme events across India. It underscores that identifying, monitoring, and managing climate risks at a hyper-local level is not just a scientific imperative, but a developmental one.

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