The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), which came into force in 2014 amidst high hopes, has not lived up to expectations over the past decade. The global proliferation of arms and ammunition continues to fuel genocidal violence, civil wars, and crimes against humanity. Terrorist groups have acquired heavy weaponry in several regions, and illicit arms markets and trafficking networks remain active and profitable.
One significant reason for the treaty’s limited impact is that 53 countries have not joined it. These include several major players in the global arms trade, such as North Korea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Indonesia, Myanmar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen. Additionally, 26 countries have signed the treaty but have not ratified it—thus not being legally bound by its provisions. This group includes key countries such as the United States, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Ukraine, Angola, Rwanda, and Bangladesh. The absence of such influential nations undermines the ATT’s core objectives: to curb illicit arms transfers and ensure that legal arms transfers do not end up fueling atrocities or human rights abuses.
Other compounding factors include the presence of powerful arms traffickers with deep connections and the vast profits involved in the trade. The broader international environment—marked by geopolitical power struggles and support for violent regimes by powerful states—further weakens the treaty’s effectiveness. If the goal is to halt both illegal arms trading and the broader proliferation of weapons, the ATT alone, with its limited scope, is insufficient.
The recent escalation of armed conflicts and the spread of terrorist and criminal networks—sometimes supported by state actors or hostile governments—has driven demand for both legal and illegal weapons. This has also contributed to the resurgence of landmine usage, despite past international campaigns to ban them.
While heavy weapons attract more attention, much of the actual destruction in conflicts is caused by "small arms and light weapons"—a category that includes revolvers, pistols, rifles, carbines, machine guns, grenades, landmines, and explosives. Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan remarked in 2000, “The death toll from small arms dwarfs that of all other weapons systems and in most years greatly exceeds the toll of the atomic bombs that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In terms of the carnage they cause, small arms, indeed, could well be described as ‘weapons of mass destruction.’ Yet there is still no global non-proliferation regime to limit their spread.”
A joint report by Amnesty International and Oxfam, Shattered Lives, highlights that more injuries, deaths, displacements, and acts of torture are committed with small arms than with any other weapon. At the time of the report, there were an estimated 639 million small arms globally, with civilians owning nearly 60%. Each year, 8 million new small arms are produced, and in 2001 alone, at least 16 billion rounds of military ammunition were manufactured—enough for more than two bullets per person on Earth.
The World Report on Violence and Health (WRVH) by the World Health Organization notes that firearms are a major factor in various forms of violence, including youth violence, collective violence, and suicide. Technological improvements in weapons have only increased their lethality. For example, an AK-47 can fire up to 30 rounds in under three seconds, each bullet potentially lethal at over one kilometer.
In South Africa, gunshot wounds account for 46% of all homicides and 16% of violent injuries treated in hospitals. In the United States, guns are used in over 70% of youth homicides and in more murders of women than all other weapons combined.
The WRVH also highlights the alarming prevalence of weapon-carrying among school-age youth. In Cape Town, 9.8% of male and 11.3% of female secondary school students reported carrying knives to school in the previous month. In Scotland, 34% of boys and 8.6% of girls aged 11–16 said they had carried a weapon at least once. In the Netherlands, 21% of secondary students admitted to possessing a weapon, with 8% bringing one to school. In the U.S., a national survey found that 17.3% of students in grades 9–12 had carried a weapon in the previous 30 days, and 6.9% had brought one to school.
Guns are also frequently used in suicides. In the U.S., firearms are involved in about two-thirds of all suicides. In rural Australia, gun-related suicides are also common. The WRVH emphasizes that the method chosen significantly affects the likelihood of a suicide being fatal—making gun access a major risk factor.
In post-conflict settings, the availability of small arms increases the risk of renewed violence, especially where disarmament and reintegration programs are lacking. In Cambodia, 36,000 people have lost limbs due to accidental landmine detonations—one in every 236 people. In Afghanistan, over 30 million landmines were laid during the 1980s.
The successful campaign to ban anti-personnel landmines, culminating in the Ottawa Treaty of 1999, shows that focused international advocacy can yield results. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) played a pivotal role in this process. One ICRC staffer later reflected that documenting the effects of weapons is not enough—such information must be communicated compellingly to influence both policymakers and the public.
As Ugandan surgeon Olive Kobusingye has noted, it’s not enough to “mop the floor” (address consequences); one must also “turn off the tap” (address root causes). This means regulating arms trade while simultaneously improving community safety and stability.
The WRVH recommends building on recent efforts to integrate small arms monitoring into broader early-warning systems for conflict. Suggested interventions include legislation to regulate gun sales and ownership, weapon collection and decommissioning programs, demobilization of combatants, and better weapon storage practices. The effectiveness of these measures should be further studied, but success will depend on cooperation among legislative, law enforcement, and public health agencies.
The report also emphasizes the link between global drug and arms trades, both of which drive violence across societies. Progress in either area would significantly reduce the suffering of millions. Yet, despite global attention, little real progress has been made. Public health approaches can help mitigate these problems and deserve a more prominent role in international policy discussions.
The concept of the Arms Trade Treaty was initially proposed by 18 Nobel Peace Prize laureates from over a dozen countries. The treaty stipulates that all international arms transfers must be authorized by the relevant state authority, and that governments must ensure such transfers do not violate international law or contribute to human rights abuses, war crimes, or political instability.
Yet, far more sustained and holistic efforts are needed—at national and international levels, legal and illegal fronts—to address the global proliferation of arms and ammunition.
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The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Saving Earth for Children, A Day in 2071, Planet in Peril, and Man over Machine: A Path to Peace
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