Election bells ringing in Nepal: Can ousted premier Oli return to power?

By Nava Thakuria*

Nepal is preparing for a national election necessitated by the collapse of KP Sharma Oli’s government at the height of a Gen Z rebellion (youth uprising) in September 2025. The polls are scheduled for 5 March. The Himalayan nation last conducted a general election in 2022, with the next polls originally due in 2027.

However, following the dissolution of Nepal’s lower house of Parliament last year by President Ram Chandra Poudel, the electoral process began under the patronage of an interim government installed on 12 September under the leadership of retired Supreme Court judge Sushila Karki. The Hindu-majority nation of over 29 million people will witness more than 3,400 electoral candidates, including 390 women, representing 68 political parties as well as independents, vying for 165 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives.

At least four former prime ministers remain in the fray, while three mayors are also expected to try their luck in the electoral battle. Deposed premier Oli, 74, who leads the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), will face a key challenge from Balendra Shah in the Jhapa-5 parliamentary constituency in eastern Nepal.

Balendra Shah, 35, who recently resigned as mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City and joined the Rastriya Swatantra Party, is an engineer-turned-rapper-turned-politician. He was among the prominent figures in last year’s anti-government protests and is seen by local political observers as a formidable challenger to the four-time prime minister.

Oli, who resigned as prime minister on 9 September, has recently claimed that foreign forces instigated the uprising that led to the overthrow of his government in Kathmandu. He alleged that the unrest, which resulted in the deaths of 77 people and damage to government and private property worth NPR 84 billion (about Rs 52 billion), was unusual and orchestrated through meticulous planning.

Oli further suggested that after Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Nepal had been targeted by elements seeking to undermine democracy in the South Asian nation. On several occasions, he also made anti-India remarks and remained critical of New Delhi’s foreign policy towards Nepal, which also borders Tibet, now under China.

The other three former premiers contesting the election are Pushpa Kamal Dahal, popularly known as Prachanda, 71, of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre); Baburam Bhattarai, 71, of the Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party; and Madhav Kumar Nepal, 72, of the Nepal Communist Party. Two former prime ministers, Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress and Jhala Nath Khanal of the NCP, have opted not to contest the polls.

Deuba was reportedly compelled to stay out following a split in his party under the mentorship of Gagan Thapa, now recognised as the leader of the Nepali Congress. Besides Balendra Shah, two other candidates with mayoral backgrounds—Harka Sampang of Dharan Sub-Metropolitan City and Renu Dahal of Bharatpur Metropolitan City—are also in the race.

Renu Dahal is the daughter of Prachanda, who led Nepal’s decade-long Maoist movement. The hardline communist leader played a decisive role in abolishing the Hindu monarchy in 2008. Nepal’s last king, Gyanendra Shah, who now lives the life of a common citizen but retains visible support bases across the country, recently criticised Nepal’s political leadership for adopting what he described as an increasingly imbalanced foreign policy and conduct against national interests.

Addressing the nation on the occasion of the 304th birth anniversary of Prithvi Narayan Shah, his forefather, and National Unity Day, the former monarch blamed successive political leaders for plunging the country into persistent crises over the past two decades.

India, responding to requests from the government and various political parties, continues to extend logistical support to Nepal. Recently, the world’s largest democracy handed over more than 60 double-cab pickup vehicles along with other supplies to support Kathmandu’s election preparations. These were formally received by Nepal’s Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal from Indian diplomat Rakesh Pandey.

Thanking New Delhi, Aryal said the assistance reflected the depth of trust and friendship between the two neighbours, according to The Kathmandu Post. Since 2008, India has been providing election-related assistance to Nepal, and this time more than 600 vehicles are expected to be delivered.

China has also expressed its commitment to provide all possible support for the successful conduct of Nepal’s general elections. During a recent interaction with editors and journalists, Chinese diplomat in Kathmandu Chen Song said Beijing was working in close coordination with the interim government and placed high priority on Nepal’s political stability, development, and prosperity.

Amid the electoral fervour, hardcore supporters of the deposed king are demanding the restoration of the monarchy, arguing that self-serving politicians have failed the citizens—especially the younger generation—and that the return of King Gyanendra is the only alternative to safeguard Nepal and its people.

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*Senior journalist based in Guwahati

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