Navsarjan Gujarat? Assembly elections saw Dalit-Adivasi-Muslim "anger" against BJP, some visible, some silent

By Martin Macwan*
Elections in Gujarat may be over, yet Navsarjan (resurgence, a term used by Congress during its electoral campaign) for Congress, and worries for BJP, appear to be far from over. Fighting as representatives of deprived communities, Alpesh Thakor, the well-known OBC leader who joined Congress ahead of the just-concluded Assembly polls, and Dalit leader Jignesh Mewani, fighting as Congress-backed Independent, won with comfortable margin, despite aggressive and low level of campaign that the BJP undertook to defeat both.
Despite its tall claims of getting 150 seats, the BJP had to be content with less than 100 seats, even though it successfully ensured defection of 14 Congress MLAs during the Rajya Sabha elections this August. The operation is said to have been carried out by former BJP leader Shankarsinh Vaghela, who crossed over to Congress in late 1990s after splitting BJP in 1996. BJP hoped, Vaghela's influence would work, but it was unsuccessful. Several of these defectors contested this time on BJP symbol, but lost.
While it will take some time to ascertain the voter base lost by the BJP, the fact is, the Congress has snatched away 27 seats which were previously with the BJP, and the Congress, has lost 8 seats to the BJP.
Gujarat Assembly has 13 reserved seats for Scheduled Castes (SC) of which 10 were with the BJP in 2012. Congress has double its tally of SC reserved seats from 3 to 6. Indeed, BJP paid a price for the wounds it afflicted on Dalits, especially after the public flogging of Dalit youths at Una on July 11, 2016. Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, claiming to be a Dalit leader, unsuccessfully tried to help the BJP by describing Una as ‘not-so-serious’ incident. Yet, less than 7% Gujarat's Dalit population has made a visible political statement.
Notably, two BJP ministers on SC reserved seats -- Ramanlal Vora and and Atmaram Parmar -- lost as there was strong Dalit protest against them for ignoring Dalit interests and harassing Navsarjan Trust, the largest organization in Gujarat working on Dalit rights.

Gujarat Assembly has 26 reserved seats for Scheduled Tribes (STs). In 2012 Congress won 16, while the BJP won 9. One seat went to Chhotubhai Vasava contesting from undivided the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U). Vasava played the trumpcard during the crucial Rajya Sabha polls in August -- his sole vote ensured the victory of Congress leader Ahmed Patel after a whopping 14 MLAs left the Congress.
During the Assembly polls, the Congress allied with Vasava, who is no more with JD(U). This alliance helped Congress+ to increase its tally to 18, with the BJP losing two seats. There has been some change, too. Both the Congress and the BJP lost two of their previously held seats.
OBC leader Alpesh Thakore joining the Congress has been a gain for the party on other seats as well. Ganiben Thakore has created a stir by defeating BJP minister Shakersinh Choudhry. His Thakore Sena played an important role in helping Jignesh Mevani to win. Thakore votes have also helped the Congress win some other seats as well.
Patidar leader Hardik Patel has been able to make lesser impact. In Surat, where his roadshows were impressive, there has been no change, as all the seats have gone to the BJP. Some marginal impact can be seen in Saurashtra, though.
Though Muslims constitute about 8.5 percent population in Gujarat, the BJP maintained its tradition of not giving a single seat to them. It was looking for the slightest opportunity to trap the Congress with minority appeasement. The Congress stayed away from mentioning Muslims, but gave them five seats, one less than last time. Muslims have won three seats, a significant representation after a very long time.
The election campaign in Gujarat was launched accidentally with the slogan which went viral ‘vikas gando thayo chhe’ (development has gone crazy). Although it subdued after some time, it left the BJP speechless with little option but to officially defend "vikas. However, it was not successful in focusing its campaign on development and sidetracked to non-issues. There was uneasy calm that both the Congress and the BJP failed to sense. It was anger.
There was Dalit anger that was quite visible. There was Adivasi anger that was silent, and there was Muslim anger that was ignored. It was this Muslim-Adivasi-Dalit (MAD) factor that frustrated the BJP. It is a modified incarnation of the KHAM theory, floated in mid-1980s by the Congress, which created an alliance of Kshatiyas, Harijans, Adivasis and Muslims.
Has Gujarat become a model for Navsarjan for India? One has to wait and see...
---
*Founder, Navsarjan Trust, Ahmedabad

Comments

How natural and organic farming can be a key to combating the climate crisis

By Raj Kumar Sinha* On July 9, while addressing the “Sahkar Samvad” in Ahmedabad with women and workers associated with cooperatives from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, Union Home Minister Amit Shah emphasized that natural farming is essential for both our health and the health of the soil. This is a significant statement in the context of addressing the climate change crisis. Natural farming can play a crucial role in combating climate change. Also known as organic farming, it is a system of agriculture that can increase food production without harming the environment. Natural farming has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 35% to 50%.

100 yrs of RSS as seen by global media house: Power, controversy, push for Hindu-first India

By Rajiv Shah On a blistering summer evening in Nagpur, nearly a thousand men in brown trousers, white shirts, and black caps stood in formation as a saffron flag was raised, marking a graduation ceremony for Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) workers. This vivid scene, described in a recent FT Weekend Magazine article, “A hundred years after it was founded, India's Hindu-nationalist movement is getting closer to its goal of a Hindu-first state,” captures the enduring presence of the RSS, a century-old Hindu-nationalist organization.

Another 'honor' killing in Tamil Nadu: Caste pride has murdered love, again

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* Once again, Tamil Nadu has witnessed a brutal so-called 'honor' killing. This time, it is Kevin Selvaganesh, a 27-year-old software engineer from the Scheduled Caste community, who has been hacked to death by the family of the girl he loved since childhood. Kevin, a brilliant student employed at Tata Consultancy Services, was in a relationship with Subashini, his schoolmate and girlfriend. The couple, both well-educated and professionally qualified, had plans to marry. Yet, that love story ended in bloodshed — sacrificed at the altar of caste pride.

Why is India’s cheetah project under fire? Study flags ecological, social, species injustices

By Rajiv Shah A recent peer-reviewed study has sharply criticized Project Cheetah—India’s high-profile initiative to reintroduce African cheetahs into the wild—as ethically compromised, scientifically flawed, and socially unjust. Titled “Delineating the Environmental Justice Implications of an Experimental Cheetah Introduction Project in India”, the paper is authored by Yashendu C. Joshi, Stephanie E. Klarmann, and Louise C. de Waal, and was published in Frontiers in Conservation Science.

The myth of population decline: India’s real challenge is density, not fertility

By N.S. Venkataraman* India’s population in 2025 stands at approximately 1.4 billion. In 1950, it was 359 million, rising sharply to 1.05 billion by 2000. The population continues to grow and is projected to reach around 1.7 billion by 2050.

Siang dam project sparks debate over security, development, and displacement in Arunachal

By Aarna Gupta* The proposed Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) in Arunachal Pradesh, India, has emerged as a contentious initiative shaped by strategic, environmental, and social concerns. Indian officials, including Union Minister Kiren Rijiju and Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu, have voiced strong support for the project. One of the primary motivations is China’s plan to build a 60,000 MW hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (the upper stretch of the Brahmaputra) in Tibet, which Indian authorities see as a threat to water and national security. In response, the 11,000 MW Siang Dam, with its 9 billion cubic meter reservoir, is viewed as a necessary countermeasure to manage water flow and reduce vulnerability.

Shanghai Textbook reassessed: Between revolutionary rhetoric and economic reality

By Harsh Thakor "Maoist Economics and the Revolutionary Road to Communism: The Shanghai Textbook on Socialist Political Economy" (1975) presents a detailed exposition of the Chinese perspective on socialist political economy under Mao . Developed during the Cultural Revolution, it outlines a theoretical framework for the functioning of a socialist alternative to capitalism. The book was formulated under the direction of Zhang Chunqiao, who played a central role in discussions, content planning, and final reviews of the draft.

Trump’s tariff tactics are a geopolitical bully move that may backfire

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent move to impose high tariffs on Indian goods is yet another example of his aggressive, unilateralist economic policy—an attempt to pressure and punish rather than to negotiate. This is not an isolated action. Trump has shown similar hostility toward other countries aligned with the BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—reflecting his disdain for multipolar global cooperation and his desire to maintain American economic supremacy at all costs.

Search This Blog