Hardik factor "main hurdle" in BJP's easy win; despite Rahul's new energy, Gujarat remains Hindutva fortress

By A Representative
In an incisive analysis of Gujarat polls, top scribe Rajdeep Sardesai has predicted that, if a month ago, he would have almost unhesitatingly said the BJP would win at least 120 plus seats in the 182 member assembly, today he would press the pause button and maintain that the "BJP remains in pole position to cross the half way mark."
Calling Gujarat "the original Hindutva fortress", with "a formidable organisation right down to the last booth worker", Sardesai says, "By contrast, the Congress in Gujarat has remained a moribund and leaderless organisation", adding, while
"the vote share gap between the BJP and the Congress appears far too wide, especially in urban areas", the top scribe says, "there is an anti-government undercurrent in rural Gujarat".
Even as sharply coming down on Modi for his desperation going so far as "to bizarrely drag in Pakistan and suggest that Islamabad wants Ahmed Patel to be chief minister of Gujarat", calling it a "particularly low blow that brings down the credibility of the prime minister's office", Sardesai says, people still do not utter harsh words about Modi. Thus, "one textile shop owner who used the word 'feku' but very little else by way of personal attacks."
As for Rahul Gandhi, says Sardesai, he "has found a voice in Gujarat", with "even his worst critics can't deny that Rahul has surprised us with the energy with which he has campaigned in Gujarat". The scribe adds, Rahul's speeches "may lack an oratorical flow (he still uses crazily long English words like 'contradictions' in rural Gujarat) and the content is fuzzy", but he has "demonstrated a more intangible human quality called 'sincerity'."
Coming to Hardik Patel, Sardesai says, he is "the X factor in this election", insisting, "Make no mistake, without Hardik playing the dramatic street fighter role, this election in Gujarat may have been yet another tepid no-contest between a triumphant BJP and a timid Congress."
Within this framework, Sardesai says, "The Gujarat model is under strain", and there is a "sharp rural-urban-sub-regional divide". He adds, "The BJP will win a majority of seats in Ahmedabad despite the Patel factor; it will have limited losses in Surat despite anger over GST. The cities are a BJP citadel." However, "rural Gujarat, especially Saurashtra where farmers have suffered from agrarian distress and low minimum support prices, offers the best chance for the Congress to make major gains."
Even in urban areas, Sardesai suggests, BJP is not without problem: "The Gujarati trader and those engaged in small and micro enterprises, notebandi and then GST were a double whammy... In a state where the entrepreneurial spirit thrives, state power or 'tanashahi' is frowned upon".
Coming to tagline 'vikaas', Sardesai says, "Hindutva remains the overpowering sub-text. In 2002, there was James Michael Lyngdoh, in 2007 there was Mian Musharraf, in 2012 there was Mian Ahmed Patel, in 2017, there is Mughal dynasty. In every election, there are warnings of a return to 'Latif Raj' under Congress and, of course, that eternal promise of a Ram Mandir."
At the same, Sardesai complains, "In no other state is the attempt to polarise communities so easily and coarsely legitimised as it is in Gujarat. The well being of the state's 10 per cent minorities don't seem to matter as Gujarat's Muslims have gone missing in this election. The Congress is silent on their plight for fear of being branded pro-Muslim and losing the Hindu vote (hence, the need for Rahul Gandhi's temple tourism)."

Comments

N-power plant at Mithi Virdi: CRZ nod is arbitrary, without jurisdiction

By Krishnakant* A case-appeal has been filed against the order of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) and others granting CRZ clearance for establishment of intake and outfall facility for proposed 6000 MWe Nuclear Power Plant at Mithi Virdi, District Bhavnagar, Gujarat by Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) vide order in F 11-23 /2014-IA- III dated March 3, 2015. The case-appeal in the National Green Tribunal at Western Bench at Pune is filed by Shaktisinh Gohil, Sarpanch of Jasapara; Hajabhai Dihora of Mithi Virdi; Jagrutiben Gohil of Jasapara; Krishnakant and Rohit Prajapati activist of the Paryavaran Suraksha Samiti. The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has issued a notice to the MoEF&CC, Gujarat Pollution Control Board, Gujarat Coastal Zone Management Authority, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and case is kept for hearing on August 20, 2015. Appeal No. 23 of 2015 (WZ) is filed, a...

Spirit of leadership vs bondage: Of empowered chairman of 100-acre social forestry coop

By Gagan Sethi* This is about Khoda Sava, a young Dalit belonging to the Vankar sub-caste, who worked as a bonded labourer in a village near Vadgam in Banskantha district of North Gujarat. The year was 1982. Khoda had taken a loan of Rs 7,000 from the village sarpanch, a powerful landlord doing money-lending as his side business. Khoda, who had taken the loan for marriage, was landless. Normally, villagers would mortgage their land if they took loan from the sarpanch. But Khoda had no land. He had no option but to enter into a bondage agreement with the sarpanch in order to repay the loan. Working in bondage on the sarpanch’s field meant that he would be paid Rs 1,200 per annum, from which his loan amount with interest would be deducted. He was also obliged not to leave the sarpanch’s field and work as daily wager somewhere else. At the same time, Khoda was offered meal once a day, and his wife job as agricultural worker on a “priority basis”. That year, I was working as secretary...

Proposed Modi yatra from Jharkhand an 'insult' of Adivasi hero Birsa Munda: JMM

Counterview Desk The civil rights network, Jharkhand Janadhikar Mahasabha (JMM), which claims to have 30 grassroots groups under its wings, has decided to launch Save Democracy campaign to oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vikasit Bharat Sankalp Yatra to be launched on November 15 from the village of legendary 19th century tribal independence leader Birsa Munda from Ulihatu (Khunti district).

1857 War of Independence... when Hindu-Muslim separatism, hatred wasn't an issue

"The Sepoy Revolt at Meerut", Illustrated London News, 1857 By Shamsul Islam* Large sections of Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs unitedly challenged the greatest imperialist power, Britain, during India’s First War of Independence which began on May 10, 1857; the day being Sunday. This extraordinary unity, naturally, unnerved the firangees and made them realize that if their rule was to continue in India, it could happen only when Hindus and Muslims, the largest two religious communities were divided on communal lines.

NREGA Sangharsh Morcha demands rollback of NMMS App, restoration of workers’ rights

By A Representative The NREGA Sangharsh Morcha (NSM) has strongly demanded the immediate revocation of the National Mobile Monitoring System (NMMS) App used for recording workers’ attendance under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA). Citing the Union Ministry of Rural Development’s (MoRD) July 8, 2025 directive acknowledging widespread misuse and discrepancies in the NMMS App, NSM accused the government of admitting to deep-rooted corruption while continuing to impose a failed digital system.

Job opportunities decreasing, wages remain low: Delhi construction workers' plight

By Bharat Dogra* It was about 32 years back that a hut colony in posh Prashant Vihar area of Delhi was demolished. It was after a great struggle that the people evicted from here could get alternative plots that were not too far away from their earlier colony. Nirmana, an organization of construction workers, played an important role in helping the evicted people to get this alternative land. At that time it was a big relief to get this alternative land, even though the plots given to them were very small ones of 10X8 feet size. The people worked hard to construct new houses, often constructing two floors so that the family could be accommodated in the small plots. However a recent visit revealed that people are rather disheartened now by a number of adverse factors. They have not been given the proper allotment papers yet. There is still no sewer system here. They have to use public toilets constructed some distance away which can sometimes be quite messy. There is still no...

Two more "aadhaar-linked" Jharkhand deaths: 17 die of starvation since Sept 2017

Kaleshwar's sons Santosh and Mantosh Counterview Desk A fact-finding team of the Right to Feed Campaign, pointing towards the death of two more persons due to starvation in Jharkhand, has said that this has happened because of the absence of aadhaar, leading to “persistent lack of food at home and unavailability of any means of earning.” It has disputed the state government claims that these deaths are due to reasons other than starvation, adding, the authorities have “done nothing” to reduce the alarming state of food insecurity in the state.

Bangladesh alternative more vital for NE India than Kaladan project in Myanmar

By Mehjabin Bhanu* There has been a recent surge in the number of Chin refugees entering Mizoram from the adjacent nation as a result of airstrikes by the Myanmar Army on ethnic insurgents and intense fighting along the border between India and Myanmar. Uncertainty has surrounded India's Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport project, which uses Sittwe port in Myanmar, due to the recent outbreak of hostilities along the Mizoram-Myanmar border. Construction on the road portion of the Kaladan project, which runs from Paletwa in Myanmar to Zorinpui in Mizoram, was resumed thanks to the time of relative calm during the intermittent period. However, recent unrest has increased concerns about missing the revised commissioning goal dates. The project's goal is to link northeastern states with the rest of India via an alternate route, using the Sittwe port in Myanmar. In addition to this route, India can also connect the region with the rest of India through Assam by using the Chittagon...

Search This Blog