Skip to main content

Hardik factor "main hurdle" in BJP's easy win; despite Rahul's new energy, Gujarat remains Hindutva fortress

By A Representative
In an incisive analysis of Gujarat polls, top scribe Rajdeep Sardesai has predicted that, if a month ago, he would have almost unhesitatingly said the BJP would win at least 120 plus seats in the 182 member assembly, today he would press the pause button and maintain that the "BJP remains in pole position to cross the half way mark."
Calling Gujarat "the original Hindutva fortress", with "a formidable organisation right down to the last booth worker", Sardesai says, "By contrast, the Congress in Gujarat has remained a moribund and leaderless organisation", adding, while
"the vote share gap between the BJP and the Congress appears far too wide, especially in urban areas", the top scribe says, "there is an anti-government undercurrent in rural Gujarat".
Even as sharply coming down on Modi for his desperation going so far as "to bizarrely drag in Pakistan and suggest that Islamabad wants Ahmed Patel to be chief minister of Gujarat", calling it a "particularly low blow that brings down the credibility of the prime minister's office", Sardesai says, people still do not utter harsh words about Modi. Thus, "one textile shop owner who used the word 'feku' but very little else by way of personal attacks."
As for Rahul Gandhi, says Sardesai, he "has found a voice in Gujarat", with "even his worst critics can't deny that Rahul has surprised us with the energy with which he has campaigned in Gujarat". The scribe adds, Rahul's speeches "may lack an oratorical flow (he still uses crazily long English words like 'contradictions' in rural Gujarat) and the content is fuzzy", but he has "demonstrated a more intangible human quality called 'sincerity'."
Coming to Hardik Patel, Sardesai says, he is "the X factor in this election", insisting, "Make no mistake, without Hardik playing the dramatic street fighter role, this election in Gujarat may have been yet another tepid no-contest between a triumphant BJP and a timid Congress."
Within this framework, Sardesai says, "The Gujarat model is under strain", and there is a "sharp rural-urban-sub-regional divide". He adds, "The BJP will win a majority of seats in Ahmedabad despite the Patel factor; it will have limited losses in Surat despite anger over GST. The cities are a BJP citadel." However, "rural Gujarat, especially Saurashtra where farmers have suffered from agrarian distress and low minimum support prices, offers the best chance for the Congress to make major gains."
Even in urban areas, Sardesai suggests, BJP is not without problem: "The Gujarati trader and those engaged in small and micro enterprises, notebandi and then GST were a double whammy... In a state where the entrepreneurial spirit thrives, state power or 'tanashahi' is frowned upon".
Coming to tagline 'vikaas', Sardesai says, "Hindutva remains the overpowering sub-text. In 2002, there was James Michael Lyngdoh, in 2007 there was Mian Musharraf, in 2012 there was Mian Ahmed Patel, in 2017, there is Mughal dynasty. In every election, there are warnings of a return to 'Latif Raj' under Congress and, of course, that eternal promise of a Ram Mandir."
At the same, Sardesai complains, "In no other state is the attempt to polarise communities so easily and coarsely legitimised as it is in Gujarat. The well being of the state's 10 per cent minorities don't seem to matter as Gujarat's Muslims have gone missing in this election. The Congress is silent on their plight for fear of being branded pro-Muslim and losing the Hindu vote (hence, the need for Rahul Gandhi's temple tourism)."

Comments

TRENDING

10,000 students deprived of classes as Ahmedabad school remains shut: MCC writes to Gujarat CM

By A Representative   The Minority Coordination Committee (MCC) has written to Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, urging him to immediately reopen the Seventh Day Adventist School in Maninagar, Ahmedabad, where classes have been suspended for nearly two weeks. The MCC claims that the suspension, following a violent incident, violates the constitutional right to education of thousands of children.

Gujarat minority rights group seeks suspension of Botad police officials for brutal assault on minor

By A Representative   A human rights group, the Minority Coordination Committee (MCC) Gujarat,  has written to the Director General of Police (DGP), Gandhinagar, demanding the immediate suspension and criminal action against police personnel of Botad police station for allegedly brutally assaulting a minor boy from the Muslim community.

On Teachers’ Day, remembering Mother Teresa as the teacher of compassion

By Fr. Cedric Prakash SJ   It is Teachers’ Day once again! Significantly, the day also marks the Feast of St. Teresa of Calcutta (still lovingly called Mother Teresa). In 2012, the United Nations, as a fitting tribute to her, declared this day the International Day of Charity. A day pregnant with meaning—one that we must celebrate as meaningfully as possible.

A comrade in culture and controversy: Yao Wenyuan’s revolutionary legacy

By Harsh Thakor*  This year marks two important anniversaries in Chinese revolutionary history—the 20th death anniversary of Yao Wenyuan, and the 50th anniversary of his seminal essay "On the Social Basis of the Lin Biao Anti-Party Clique". These milestones invite reflection on the man whose pen ignited the first sparks of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and whose sharp ideological interventions left an indelible imprint on the political and cultural landscape of socialist China.

Targeted eviction of Bengali-speaking Muslims across Assam districts alleged

By A Representative   A delegation led by prominent academic and civil rights leader Sandeep Pandey  visited three districts in Assam—Goalpara, Dhubri, and Lakhimpur—between 2 and 4 September 2025 to meet families affected by recent demolitions and evictions. The delegation reported widespread displacement of Bengali-speaking Muslim communities, many of whom possess valid citizenship documents including Aadhaar, voter ID, ration cards, PAN cards, and NRC certification. 

'Govts must walk the talk on gender equality, right to health, human rights to deliver SDGs by 2030'

By A Representative  With just 64 months left to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), global health and rights advocates have called upon governments to honour their commitments on gender equality and the human right to health. Speaking ahead of the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), experts warned that rising anti-rights and anti-gender pushes are threatening hard-won progress on SDG-3 (health and wellbeing) and SDG-5 (gender equality).

Gandhiji quoted as saying his anti-untouchability view has little space for inter-dining with "lower" castes

By A Representative A senior activist close to Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA) leader Medha Patkar has defended top Booker prize winning novelist Arundhati Roy’s controversial utterance on Gandhiji that “his doctrine of nonviolence was based on an acceptance of the most brutal social hierarchy the world has ever known, the caste system.” Surprised at the police seeking video footage and transcript of Roy’s Mahatma Ayyankali memorial lecture at the Kerala University on July 17, Nandini K Oza in a recent blog quotes from available sources to “prove” that Gandhiji indeed believed in “removal of untouchability within the caste system.”

Is U.S. fast losing its financial and technological edge under Trump’s second tenure?

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra*  The United States, along with its Western European allies, once promoted globalization as a democratic force that would deliver shared prosperity and balanced growth. That promise has unraveled. Globalization, instead of building an even world, has produced one defined by inequality, asymmetry of power, and new vulnerabilities. For decades, Washington successfully turned this system to its advantage. Today, however, under Trump’s second administration, America is attempting to exploit the weaknesses of others without acknowledging how exposed it has become itself.

What mainstream economists won’t tell you about Chinese modernisation

By Shiran Illanperuma  China’s modernisation has been one of the most remarkable processes of the 21st century and one that has sparked endless academic debate. Meng Jie (孟捷), a distinguished professor from the School of Marxism at Fudan University in Shanghai, has spent the better part of his career unpacking this process to better understand what has taken place.