Behind the numbers: What the Rajya Sabha results reveal about J&K politics

By Raqif Makhdoomi*

After a gap of four years, were finally held in . These are —meaning the people do not vote directly, but their elected representatives do. Similar to , the process relies on votes cast by legislators.

This time, the elections took an unexpected turn when the alleged at a rally that some National Conference (NC) MLAs were preparing to switch sides to the . The timing of the claim—just before the Rajya Sabha polls—sparked public curiosity. Would there be , or was it just political posturing?

The ruling National Conference found itself in a difficult position. Its ally, the , was upset that it was not given a “.” NC decided to contest three seats and offered one to Congress—the one they were least confident of winning. Congress viewed this as a betrayal. When asked about the party’s stance on supporting the NC candidate, the state Congress chief deferred the decision to the central leadership, hinting that all was not well within the alliance.

Sensing trouble, the National Conference changed tone—from confrontation to persuasion. It began appealing to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), its uneasy ally Congress, and other like-minded legislators to help “keep the BJP away.” Ironically, the same PDP that NC leaders had accused of being close to the BJP now became a key player. PDP chief and former Chief Minister held a press conference declaring support for the NC candidate, though with a condition: her party would vote for NC as a third preference rather than a fourth. She explained that NC itself was unsure of securing the fourth seat, and PDP would not shoulder the risk if things went wrong. The PDP even issued a whip directing its MLAs to vote for the NC.

The Deputy Chief Minister confidently claimed that NC would win all four seats, while the BJP, contesting three, also expressed optimism. One seat was uncontested, meaning NC only had to manage three.

When results came, NC did win three—but the fourth seat shocked everyone. BJP, despite lacking the required numbers, secured 33 votes, while the NC candidate got only 21. The question now is: how did BJP manage seven extra votes?

It cannot be blamed on ’s group, which abstained from voting. Both Congress and PDP had issued whips to their MLAs to vote for NC, so defying those orders would have attracted legal consequences. Independents like , , and publicly stated they voted for NC. So who helped the BJP?

Was the Leader of Opposition right when he said that “all is not well” within the NC? Perhaps. When was asked why he did not contest the Rajya Sabha polls, he said he needed to “look into matters at home,” hinting at internal discord. Given how his government was once toppled in the past, such a possibility cannot be dismissed today.

In the Assembly, there were heated exchanges between the Deputy Chief Minister and the opposition BJP over cross-voting. The Deputy CM’s cryptic remark—“Don’t force me to tell the truth. I know everything”—only deepened the mystery. If he truly knows the truth, why not share it with the public? Or is this all part of a larger drama to keep people guessing while the alliance quietly continues?

Some NC leaders have started blaming the PDP, but the public is unconvinced. The PDP’s whip was clear, and any defiance would have triggered legal scrutiny. Instead of pointing fingers, the NC should look inward. It is likely that a few of its own members voted for the BJP to secure personal advantages or safety. Even the Chief Minister acknowledged that some within the party voted against its interests. If that’s known, why not be transparent about it?

Jammu and Kashmir cannot afford another political episode like the one involving . The region’s fragile stability cannot withstand fresh turmoil. The National Conference must abandon its “Maharaja” mindset and function like a truly democratic party—accountable to the people, not merely to its power brokers.

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*Law student and human rights activist

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