Beyond demographic strength: The case for population stabilization

By N.S. Venkataraman* 

India has recently overtaken China to become the most populous country in the world, with an estimated population between 1.45 and 1.5 billion. Projections suggest that this number could rise to around 1.8 billion by 2050, a level that raises serious concerns about sustainability and quality of life. Despite the magnitude of this demographic shift, public discourse in India has not reflected a sense of urgency. Some continue to describe this situation as a “demographic strength,” overlooking the potential socio-economic pressures that come with such rapid population growth.

A comparison with other large nations highlights the issue starkly. India’s land area is about 3.3 million square kilometers, supporting a population density of approximately 492 people per square kilometer. In contrast, the United States, with nearly three times the land area, has a population density of only 38 people per square kilometer, and China’s density stands at about 151. Russia, with an even larger territory, has just 8.5 people per square kilometer. Managing such a vast population within limited land resources presents India with a challenge unmatched in global history.

According to the 2023 Sample Registration Survey Statistical Report, India’s crude birth rate (CBR) declined from 19.1 to 18.4 per thousand, and the total fertility rate (TFR) dropped to 1.9. However, these figures vary widely across states—from a CBR of 25.8 in Bihar to 12 in Tamil Nadu. Bihar also records the highest TFR at 2.8. Although declining fertility is a positive trend, life expectancy continues to rise—up from 35 years in 1950 to 73 years in 2023—meaning the overall population will likely keep growing.

Some argue that falling fertility rates could result in an aging population and a shrinking workforce, pointing to examples from Japan, Russia, and China. However, given India’s already high population density, such concerns may be overstated. The country must balance population growth with its resource base, economic capacity, and employment opportunities.

Joblessness remains a pressing issue. With automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence transforming industries, the availability of jobs is shrinking, even as the number of job seekers continues to expand. Agriculture, which still employs a large section of the workforce, is also becoming increasingly mechanized. Persistent unemployment among the youth has led to growing social tensions, and governments have often resorted to subsidies and welfare schemes to manage discontent—an approach that is financially unsustainable in the long run.

India’s “overflowing” population has also driven many to seek employment abroad, sometimes resulting in political backlash against migrants in host countries. The growing criticism of “body shopping” by Indian firms abroad reflects broader global unease about such migration patterns.

At independence in 1947, India’s population stood at about 350 million. In 75 years, it has quadrupled. Yet, population control has largely receded from the national policy agenda. Some political and religious groups even encourage larger families, further complicating the demographic challenge.

To ensure long-term economic and social stability, India needs to adopt a clear, pragmatic population policy. A reasonable target would be to stabilize the population at around one billion in the coming decades. A balanced population size, aligned with the nation’s resources, could help India realize its economic potential, sustain social harmony, and move closer to becoming a global economic leader.

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*Trustee, Nandini Voice for the Deprived, Chennai