The central question being debated among Muslims in Bihar is who they should vote for in the upcoming Assembly elections scheduled for November 6 and 11, 2025. This time, they have several options: the Mahagathbandhan comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and others; Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) as part of the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA); Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj Party; and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JDU].
The Mahagathbandhan has fielded only eight Muslim candidates, a small number considering that Muslims influence nearly 87 constituencies where they make up over 20% of the population. The AIMIM, contesting 35 seats as part of the GDA—alongside Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party and Swami Prasad Maurya’s Apna Janata Party—faces a credibility issue after four of its five MLAs defected to the RJD following the 2020 polls.
Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj Party is contesting all 243 seats and has promised 40 tickets for Muslim candidates. However, being a new entrant, its electoral prospects remain uncertain. Nitish Kumar’s JDU, meanwhile, retains the support of Pasmanda Muslims, who form about 67% of Bihar’s Muslim population, due to his focus on backward caste welfare and the recent caste census. Yet, his alliance with the BJP remains a deterrent for many Muslim voters.
Muslims constitute around 18% of Bihar’s population and form more than 40% in northern districts. However, political parties have largely sidelined them. The JDU has given only four tickets to Muslims, as have the RJD and Congress, while the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has given one. The BJP has fielded none. This pattern indicates that major parties are increasingly disregarding Muslim political influence, prompting calls for the community to consolidate its electoral strength.
In the 2020 elections, the JDU fielded 11 Muslim candidates, all of whom lost. The RJD had 17, of which eight won; Congress had 10, of which four won; and AIMIM won five of its 20 contests. Pasmanda Muslims, who make up nearly three-quarters of the community, remain underrepresented, holding just 18% of Muslim MLA positions. Historically, Muslim representation in the Bihar Assembly has never exceeded 10%, except in 1985 when 34 Muslim MLAs were elected in undivided Bihar.
The state’s political geography further amplifies the community’s importance. North Bihar, which has 140 constituencies, determines the electoral outcome, with Muslims comprising up to 75% of voters in several northern districts. The Seemanchal region—covering Araria, Katihar, Kishanganj, and Purnia—has Muslim populations ranging from 40% to 70%.
However, a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls by the Election Commission has sparked allegations of targeted voter deletions in Muslim-dominated constituencies. The highest deletion rates reportedly occurred in seats held by the RJD and Congress, potentially weakening the Mahagathbandhan’s support base.
For decades, Bihar’s Muslims have faced chronic underrepresentation. In 2020, only 19 Muslim MLAs were elected out of 243. With influence in 87 constituencies, the community could significantly shape outcomes if it votes strategically. Analysts suggest that increased representation is crucial for ensuring Muslim participation in policymaking and securing economic and social advancement.
The challenge now is for Muslims to translate their demographic strength into political power. As the saying goes, “Bato gey to kato gey” — if divided, they may not survive politically.
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*Journalist based in Chennai
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