In
fact, massive “misclassification of deaths” by showing Covid deaths as
non-Covid, suggest the paper, “Covid mortality in India: National survey
data and health facility deaths”, authored 11 scholars, led by Prabhat
Jha of the University of Toronto, Canada, and consisting of an Indian
Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A) faculty Chinmay Tumbe.
The
authors of the paper estimate that India’s actual Covid-related deaths
were in the range of about 2,300 to 2,500 per million, or approximately
6- to 7-fold the officially reported rate on September 1, 2021. “This
would put India’s death rate per million population just below the range
reported in Brazil (2800/million) or Colombia (2500/million), where
registration of deaths is far more complete”, the authors say, adding,
“The actual excess deaths in the facilities may be larger as the
Government of India has yet to release these data from June 2021
onward”.
Adopting a complex methodology, based on “mortality reported in a nationally representative telephone survey conducted by CVoter” (which the authors qualify “established, independent, private polling agency”, data sources from public hospitals and smaller facilities, and the Census of India’s Civil Registration System (CSR), the authors say, “The majority of Covid deaths India experienced throughout the pandemic occurred from April 1 to July 1, 2021 (2.7 million).”
Adopting a complex methodology, based on “mortality reported in a nationally representative telephone survey conducted by CVoter” (which the authors qualify “established, independent, private polling agency”, data sources from public hospitals and smaller facilities, and the Census of India’s Civil Registration System (CSR), the authors say, “The majority of Covid deaths India experienced throughout the pandemic occurred from April 1 to July 1, 2021 (2.7 million).”
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| Covid-related deaths across States |
In
fact, according to them, “The crude death rate … more than doubled in
2021 compared to 2019… Much of this excess occurred in April-May 2021
(0.45 million or 71%), reaching a 120% increase over earlier year
totals. The increase in deaths in the first viral wave was predominantly
urban, but deaths in the second wave affected both urban and rural
facilities.”
India’s death rate per million was just below the range reported in Brazil (2800/million) or Colombia (2500/million)
The
authors continue, compared to 2018-19 totals, the increase in all-cause
deaths in April-May 2021 varied across states, with Gujarat reporting a
230% increase – the highest among ten States for which data were
available and analysed – and Kerala the lowest, having a 37% increase.
They add, “Total excess all-cause deaths were 1.25 million for the ten
States that reported about half of national official Covid deaths.”
Underlining that the “actual excess deaths in the facilities may be larger as the Government of India has yet to release these data from June 2021 onward”, the authors say, “Both the 2020 and 2021 viral waves were characterized by widespread (and, for 2021, mostly uncontrolled) multigenerational transmission of the virus within households, with high levels of antibodies detected.”
The authors state, “India’s significantly higher Covid death rate in 2021 compared to the lower than expected death rate in 2020 requires further research. The spread of infection to rural areas in 2021 is one factor, but there might also be differences in the pathogenicity between the original virus (Wuhan) in 2020 and the mix of alpha and delta variants accounting for most of the 2021 viral wave.”
They add, “Similarly, tracking death rates will be essential to understanding the effects of the Omicron wave currently underway in India, or future viral variants.”
Underlining that the “actual excess deaths in the facilities may be larger as the Government of India has yet to release these data from June 2021 onward”, the authors say, “Both the 2020 and 2021 viral waves were characterized by widespread (and, for 2021, mostly uncontrolled) multigenerational transmission of the virus within households, with high levels of antibodies detected.”
The authors state, “India’s significantly higher Covid death rate in 2021 compared to the lower than expected death rate in 2020 requires further research. The spread of infection to rural areas in 2021 is one factor, but there might also be differences in the pathogenicity between the original virus (Wuhan) in 2020 and the mix of alpha and delta variants accounting for most of the 2021 viral wave.”
They add, “Similarly, tracking death rates will be essential to understanding the effects of the Omicron wave currently underway in India, or future viral variants.”
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