Skip to main content

Will Modi realise 'appeasement' policy has lost its value, pay China in the same coin?

2017: Modi with Xi in Ahmedabad
By NS Venkataraman*

The morale of the world community is now at very low level due to the Covid-19 crisis, with no one knowing when it would end, and the consequent shattered economy of most countries in the world. Chinese government under the dictatorship of Xi Jinping appears to have decided that present is the best time for Chinese government to achieve its long cherished ambition of dominating the world in all respects and emerging as the undisputed super power of the world.

It is very obvious that the Chinese government has concluded, after all its calculation or miscalculation, that its strategies towards total domination of the world should start now by confronting and weakening India and even humiliating it, if possible. Large populated country like India, if it were to decisively weaken under the pressure of China, then probably Chinese government thinks that there would not be many insurmountable hurdles to “conquer the world”.
While the 1962 war with China left India humiliated and it is yet to recover from the shock of Chinese deceit, Chinese government has consistently applied pressure on India in various ways in multiple forums.
With this game plan of weakening India, Chinese government has directly and indirectly encouraged Pakistan to maintain hate relationship with India and prejudiced leadership of Pakistan has just considered China not wisely as “all weather friend”. In this process, today Pakistan has virtually become an extended territory of China and Pakistan government is in no position to refuse any dictates from China. With huge debts and several infrastructure projects under the Chinese companies, China can any time make Pakistan open a bigger military front against India than what it has been doing so far.
Now, with the border dispute raised by Nepalese government with India, Nepalese government is now virtually dependent on the mercy of China.
The appeasement of China by India started when Jawaharlal Nehru misread the motives and game plan of the then Chinese government. The recent visit of Xi Jin Ping to India when Prime Minister Modi went out of the way to extend a glamorous welcome to the Chinese President, made many think whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi also has misread the game plan of Chinese government, just as Jawaharlal Nehru did several decades back.
When China occupied Tibet after the massacre of thousands of Tibetan protestors and India simply recognized the Chinese occupation of Tibet, in spite of the fact that Tibet under Chinese control could be a threat for India’s security interests, the world virtually lost faith that India has the will power to confront Chinese government.
Now, the tragic news that three Indian army men lost their lives in the border clash with Chinese military on 15th June has shocked entire India, with people wondering how Mr. Modi would handle the situation. Will he try to buy peace with China in spite of the provocation or gather courage and work out plans to resist Chinese government.
Many think Prime Minister Modi has misread the game plan of the Chinese government, just as Jawaharlal Nehru did several decades back
 In any case, it is obvious now that India has no option other than resisting China in every possible way and make China realize that India is not a country that China can take for granted. 
 The terrorist attacks by militants from Pakistan in Kashmir which has been steadily increasing in recent times and the government of Nepal creating border dispute with India and Chinese military creating border tension , clearly indicate that China has worked out its strategic game plan. 
In all probability, it is likely that Pakistan will intensify its conflict with India in Kashmir and Nepal government would become more belligerent against India and Chinese military provocation in the border will intensify. Just as China killed Indian military personnel on 15th June, Nepal government too shot down an Indian a few days back at its border with India.
The scheme behind the well coordinated plan of Chinese government with support from governments of Pakistan and Nepal is to force India to resist the incursions on the border with China , Nepal and Pakistan using its military force. This will give an opportunity for Chinese government to send its force to Pakistan and Nepal to “defend their border”. Then, the Chinese military will not go back at all from these territories of Pakistan and Nepal.
The news that China has asked Nepalese government to teach its students Chinese language Mandarin and has promised to meet the expenses for teaching the Mandarin language clearly indicate that China has deep interest in controlling Nepal and possibly even occupying Nepal in one form or the other. It is disturbing to think whether Nepal too would go the Tibet way.
What options for Indian government now?
China's exports to India increased by 2.1 per cent last year totalling to 515.63 billion yuan, while India's exports to China decreased by 0.2% totalling to 123.89 billion yuan. India has to necessarily stop import from China in a big way and certainly the import of non essential items can be stopped forthwith by imposing safeguard duty.
This will be a matter of concern to China and effectively reveal present Indian government’s mindset to Chinese government. Certainly, India would suffer a little by suddenly curbing imports from China but this will be a very small price that India can afford.
India has to express its concern about the occupation of Tibet by China in subtle ways and allow the Tibetans in India to express their views and anger freely about atrocities committed by China in Tibet.
India has to develop relationship with Taiwan in a more open way and strengthen the trade relations with Taiwan. China should be given an impression that India would not hesitate to give recognition to Taiwan, if necessary.
India has to seek cooperation from countries like USA, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Israel and others who are equally concerned about the Chinese greed and territorial ambitions.
It appears that military confrontation with China and its allies Pakistan and Nepal will be inevitable in the coming days in a small or big way. Possibly, India need to have an understanding with USA and even military pact to face the situation, in the event of massive attacks from these three neighbouring countries.
Above all, Modi has to clearly realize that China has to be paid in the same coin and the appeasement policy has lost its value once for all.
---
*Trustee, Nandini Voice For The Deprived, Chennai

Comments

TRENDING

What's behind public sector banks showing huge profits in 2nd quarter of 2022-23?

By Thomas Franco*  The quarter two results of the public sector banks (PSBs) appear to be noteworthy compared to a few years ago. All these banks showed good profits in the financial year 2021-22. Twelve PSBs made a net profit of Rs 25,685 crore in quarter 2 of FY23 and a total of Rs 40,991 crore in the first half of 2023. The combined profit of 12 banks in March 2022 was Rs 66,539 crore which was 110% more than 2021 – Rs. 31,816 crore. The Asset Quality Review of 2015 saw a surge in NPAs of PSBs jumping to Rs 8.96 lakh crore in March 2018 from Rs 2.17 lakh crore in March 2014. This was simply because the norms for NPAs were changed from 180 days to 90 days, and all restructuring of even genuine accounts was done away with. In 2018 NPA of SBI was 5.73% which has come down to 0.8% in Q2 of FY23. The NPA of Canara Bank has come down to 2.19% from 7.48% in Mar 2018. The same trend is seen in all public banks. Now SBI has seen a jump of 74% in its net profit, while Canara Bank’s profit is

Economist-editor's allegations on Narmada defamatory, baseless: Medha Patkar

Counterview Desk  In a reply directly addressed to well-known economist, journalist and columnist Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar’s two articles in the Times of India (republished here and here ), calling them defamatory and wondering whether they were borne out of “ignorance or a conspiracy through political alliance”, Narmada Bachao Andolan leader Medha Pakar has said that the Narmada Sardar Saravar Project and the people's movement by adivasis, farmers, labourers, fish workers, potters and all the generations’ old communities from the river valley have suddenly come to be focused on, since the Gujarat elections are in the doorstep. She believes that while the “defamatory accusations with baseless conceptions such as ‘urban naxals’ are to be laughed at as the electoral strategic moves, one gets shocked to read the articles by a known old columnist like Swaminathan Ankalesaria Aiyar, published in a reputed daily like the Times of India." According to her, Aiyar’s two articl

Business back to normal? IIM-A survey says, sales expectations have sharply improved

By Our Representative  The Indian Institute of Management’s Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES), which polls a panel of business leaders to find out their perception of slack in economy, including their inflation expectations, year-ahead cost expectations and the factors influencing price changes, such as profit and sales levels, etc., has said that the cost perceptions data indicates signs of moderation in price pressures. Carried out for September, the survey says, the cost pressure of the reporting firms has shifted from “very significant increase (over 6%) to moderate increase (3.1% to 6%).” It adds, “The percentage of firms perceiving over 10% cost increase y-o-y has declined. Over 21% of the firms in September 2022 round of the survey perceive that costs have increased very significantly (over 10%) – down from 26% recorded in August 2022.” Claiming to be a unique survey, in that it goes straight to businesses -- the price setters -- rather than to consumers or household

Buddhist shrines were 'massively destroyed' by Brahmanical rulers: Historian DN Jha

Nalanda mahavihara By Our Representative Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

Hindutva groups threat to peace, freedom: US diaspora groups tell FBI, other govt depts

By Our Representative  The Islamophobic and neo-Nazi ideology of Hindutva is a clear and present danger to peace and freedoms in the United States, a coalition of civil rights organizations told key officials of the U.S. Attorney General’s Office, the US Department of Justice (DOJ), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) at a recent event in Edison, New Jersey. At the event titled United Against Hate, activists from American Muslims for Democracy (AMD), Hindus for Human Rights (HfHR) and Indian American Muslim Council (IAMC) made detailed presentations on this ideology of Hindu supremacism that is committing mass persecution of India’s Muslims and Christians and is rearing its ugly head in New Jersey as well as across the US. Attending the event were David S Leonardis, Special Investigator from the New Jersey Department of Law & Public Safety; Michael E Campion, Chief of the Civil Rights Division for the US Attorney General's Office; and Jonathan R Norbut of the U.S. Dep

GoI's productivity linked incentives to corporates 'without independent analysis'

Counterview Desk  Wondering how prudent is the Government of India's (GoI's) Productivity Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, EAS Sarma, former secretary, GoI, in a representation to Nirmala Sitharaman, Union finance minister, has said it appears to be nothing more than subsidy to the private sector without any responsibility. Giving a specific example against the backdrop of announcement of 50% subsidy covering the project cost of the Vedanta Group's decision to set up a semiconductor fabrication plant in Gujarat, in collaboration with Foxconn, Sarma says, "The total cost of this project is reported to be Rs 1,54,000 crore. 50% of this works out to Rs 77,000 crore." Stating that this creates the impression that the entire subsidy allocation for the semiconductor manufacturing sector would be appropriated by this company, Sarma says, "The Gujarat government did not lag behind in liberally announcing similar incentives for the Vedanta-Foxconn project. It offered 7

As polls approach, electorate 'failing to realise': Gujarat model is in a shambles

By DN Rath*  Gujarat assembly elections, scheduled to be held on 1 and 5 December 2022, is viewed by many as dress rehearsal for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. When the suffering people have been pointing towards redressal of some local issues like absence of cleanliness, sewage problem, shortage of water supply, troubles created by stray cattle, insufficiency of streetlights, etc., it is evident that they are not fully aware that assembly elections are being fought on ideological standpoints and policy decisions. Nor is there the realisation that the state is in a shambles and the much-trumpeted ‘Gujarat model’ of development has proved to be a hoax. Like other states, the people of Gujarat are also back-broken by steep rise in prices to the tune of 400% in last 20 years. It is not that the government cannot control the spurt in prices if it so wants. Apart from the fact that price rise is an inevitability in a capitalist economy, artificial shortage triggered by massive hoarding, b

BJP poll gimmick? Bilkis Bano rape case 'pardon' vs Rajiv assassins' release

By Sandeep Pandey*  Supreme Court has released six convicts in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case. This was bound to happen as earlier AG Perarivalan was released in the same case, setting a precedent. Even though four of them are Sri Lankans but a popular Tamil sentiment favoured the release of these convicts which is why Tamil political parties supported this and resolutions were passed by different governments in Tamil Nadu to his effect.  Rajiv Gandhi paid the price of sending Indian Peace Keeping Force to Sri Lanka where it got entangled with Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and eventually the whole operation ended up is a fiasco.  However, most importantly Sonia and Priyanka Gandhi and probably Rahul too do not have any objections to the release of these convicts. In fact, Sonia Gandhi played an important role in getting the death sentence of the only lady among the convicts Nalini commuted to life term through the Tamil Nadu Governor. Priyanka visited Nalini in Vellore Jail and

Amit Shah accused of inciting communal passion: Demand to postpone Gujarat polls

Counterview Desk  In an email representation to the Election Commission of India (ECI), Dr EAS Sarma, former secretary to the Government of India, has objected to the statement reported to have been made by Union home minister Amit Shah, who allegedly justified the 2002 Gujarat riots stating that certain sections of people “taught a lesson” to the rioters. Noting that the statement, if correct, “in effect implies those other than the law enforcement authorities had taken law into their hands”, Sarma says, “Shah's statement needs to be viewed by the ECI in conjunction with the reported fact that it was the Union Home Ministry that cleared the release of the eleven rape convicts in the Bilkis Bano case, directly related to the infamous Godhra incidents in 2002, which triggered the shameful sequence of events that shook the nation's conscience.” According to Sarma, if the statement is true, “I am constrained to draw the inevitable inference that it would have already impacted th