Skip to main content

India's 7% GDP growth leads to less than 1% job growth: 14-16% youth, highly educated are unemployed

By Rajiv Shah
A just-released study “State of Working India 2018”, prepared by the Centre for Sustainable Employment of the Azim Premji University, has said that if in 1970s and 1980s, when GDP growth was around 3-4%, employment growth was around 2%, but “since the 1990s, and particularly in the 2000s, GDP growth has accelerated to 7% but employment growth has slowed to 1% or even less.”
Pointing out that today the situation has reached a point where a 10% increase in GDP would lead to “less than 1% increase in employment”, the study says, it calculates unemployment rate as “the share of the labour force that is not part of the workforce” – the reason being that “those above the age of 15 may be looking for work but are unable to find it for at least six months of employment.”
Calculated thus, the study says, in 2015 the unemployment rate was 5%, and stood at 5.7% in June 2018.
However, according to this study, “The unemployed are disproportionately young”, adding, “More than 60% of them are in the 15-25 year age group. In contrast, this group constitutes only 30% of the total working age population.”
“In fact”, according to the study, “If we look at the unemployment rate in just the 15-25 year group, it is much higher at 16.5%, similar to the rate among the college-educated.” Against this, the data released in the study show, the unemployment rate is 4.7% in the age 26-35, falling to 1.4% in the age group 36-45, and 0.8% in the age group 46-55.
Further, the study shows that among the higher educated sections, unemployment rate is very high – it is 16.3% among the graduates, 14.2% among the post-graduates and above, 11.1% among the diploma-level undergraduates, 11.3% among those with the certified course at undergraduate level, 4.2% among those who are only secondary educated, 3% among middle-educated, 2.4% among the primary educated, and 1.8-2% among the illiterate or semi-illiterate.
The study states, “Highly educated unemployed people overwhelmingly report that the reason for unemployment is that they did not find a job that matched their skills”, adding, “This obviously points to the issue being not only one of job creation, but of the creation of decent and desirable jobs.”
According to the study, “This phenomenon of mass unemployment among educated, young men is manifested in various ways. Consider the fact that almost every public sector recruitment drive is massively over-subscribed.”
“For example”, it says, “In early 2017, the West Bengal government held an examination for 6,000 jobs in the Class IV or Group D category, the lowest category of permanent employment in government service. 2.5 million appeared for the exam, many of them holders of graduate and postgraduate degrees.”
Similarly, the study says, “In 2015, 2.3 million applied for around 400 Class IV jobs in Uttar Pradesh, of them 150,000 graduates”, adding, “Such examples may be multiplied.”
The study further says, “Another way the clamour for jobs has manifested is in mass youth rallies across the country demanding reservations in government jobs. Strikingly, these have been mostly led by youth from traditionally dominant agricultural castes such as Patels, Marathas, Jats, and so on.”
It adds, “Even a relatively better performing state such as Karnataka saw a major political campaign on the jobs issue in the lead up to its 2018 assembly elections.”
Thus, the study reveals that workers receiving a regular salary account were less than 20% of all workers. “A household earning over Rs 1 lakh per month is in the top 0.2% of income earners in the country, while 67% of households report monthly earnings of Rs 10,000 or less” – at a time when “the lowest government salary under the Seventh Central Pay Commission is much higher at Rs 18,000.”

Comments

TRENDING

Savarkar 'criminally betrayed' Netaji and his INA by siding with the British rulers

By Shamsul Islam*
RSS-BJP rulers of India have been trying to show off as great fans of Netaji. But Indians must know what role ideological parents of today's RSS/BJP played against Netaji and Indian National Army (INA). The Hindu Mahasabha and RSS which always had prominent lawyers on their rolls made no attempt to defend the INA accused at Red Fort trials.

India under Modi among top 10 autocratizing nations, on verge of 'losing' democracy status

By Rajiv Shah
A new report, prepared by a top Swedish institute studying liberal democracy, has observed that there has been a sharp “dive in press freedom along with increasing repression of civil society in India associated with the current Hindu-nationalist regime of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.” The report places India among the top 10 countries that “have autocratized the most”. Other countries that have been identified for rolling towards autocracy are -- Hungary, Turkey, Poland, Serbia, Brazil, Mali, Thailand, Nicaragua and Zambia.

RSS supremo Deoras 'supported' Emergency, but Indira, Sanjay Gandhi 'didn't respond'

By Shamsul Islam*
National Emergency was imposed on the country by then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi on June 25-26, 1975, and it lasted for 19 months. This period is considered as ''dark times' for Indian democratic polity. Indira Gandhi claimed that due to Jaiprakash Narayan's call to the armed forces to disobey the 'illegal' orders of Congress rulers had created a situation of anarchy and there was danger to the existence of Indian Republic so there was no alternative but to impose Emergency under article 352 of the Constitution.

Letter to friends, mentors: Coming together of class, communal, corona viruses 'scary'

By Prof (Dr) Mansee Bal Bhargava*
COVID greetings from Ahmedabad to dear mentors and friends from around the world…
I hope you are keeping well and taking care of yourself besides caring for the people around you. I’m writing to learn how is the science and the society coping with the prevention and cure of the pandemic. I’m also writing to share the state of the corona virus that is further complicated with the long-standing class and communal viruses.

Hurried nod to Western Ghat projects: 16 lakh Goans' water security 'jeopardised'

Counterview Desk
Taking strong exception to "virtual clearances" to eco-sensitive projects in the Western Ghats, the National Alliance of People’s Movements (NAPM) in a statement has said urged for a review of the four-lane highway, 400 KV transmission line and double tracking of the railway line through the Bhagwan Mahavir Wildlife Sanctuary and Mollem National Park in Goa.

Disturbing signal? Reliance 'shifting focus' away from Indian petrochemical sector

By NS Venkataraman*
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), a large Indian company, has expanded and grown in a spectacular manner during the last few decades, like of which no industrial group in India has performed before. RIL is now involved in multi various activities relating to petroleum refineries, petrochemicals, oil and gas exploration, coal bed methane, life sciences, retail business, communication network, (Jio platform) media/entertainment etc.

Case for nationalising India's healthcare system amidst 'strong' private control

Counterview Desk
A draft discussion note, prepared by Dr Maya Valecha, a Gujarat-based gynecologist and activist, sent to the People's Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL) as also a large number of activists, academics and professionals as an email alert, is all set to create a flutter among policy experts for its strong insistence on nationalizing India’s healthcare system.

Oxfam on WB project: ICT 'ineffective', privatised learning to worsen gender divide

By Rajiv Shah 
A top multinational NGO, with presence in several developed and developing countries, has taken strong exception to the World Bank part-funding Strengthening Teaching-Learning and Results for States (STARS) project in six Indian states – Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Odisha – for its emphasis on information and communication technology (ICT)-enabled approaches for teacher development, student assessment and digital platform for early childhood education.

Coal blocks for tycoons: Rinchi village tribals may be declared forest land encroachers

By Gladson Dungdung*
On June 18, 2020, the Government of India initiated the process for auctioning 41 coal blocks for commercialisation. These coal blocks are located in different states within India and most of them fall under Fifth Schedule areas. The Indian government claims that their decision to auction these coal areas is a big step towards making the country Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant) in the energy sector.