Skip to main content

India's 7% GDP growth leads to less than 1% job growth: 14-16% youth, highly educated are unemployed

By Rajiv Shah
A just-released study “State of Working India 2018”, prepared by the Centre for Sustainable Employment of the Azim Premji University, has said that if in 1970s and 1980s, when GDP growth was around 3-4%, employment growth was around 2%, but “since the 1990s, and particularly in the 2000s, GDP growth has accelerated to 7% but employment growth has slowed to 1% or even less.”
Pointing out that today the situation has reached a point where a 10% increase in GDP would lead to “less than 1% increase in employment”, the study says, it calculates unemployment rate as “the share of the labour force that is not part of the workforce” – the reason being that “those above the age of 15 may be looking for work but are unable to find it for at least six months of employment.”
Calculated thus, the study says, in 2015 the unemployment rate was 5%, and stood at 5.7% in June 2018.
However, according to this study, “The unemployed are disproportionately young”, adding, “More than 60% of them are in the 15-25 year age group. In contrast, this group constitutes only 30% of the total working age population.”
“In fact”, according to the study, “If we look at the unemployment rate in just the 15-25 year group, it is much higher at 16.5%, similar to the rate among the college-educated.” Against this, the data released in the study show, the unemployment rate is 4.7% in the age 26-35, falling to 1.4% in the age group 36-45, and 0.8% in the age group 46-55.
Further, the study shows that among the higher educated sections, unemployment rate is very high – it is 16.3% among the graduates, 14.2% among the post-graduates and above, 11.1% among the diploma-level undergraduates, 11.3% among those with the certified course at undergraduate level, 4.2% among those who are only secondary educated, 3% among middle-educated, 2.4% among the primary educated, and 1.8-2% among the illiterate or semi-illiterate.
The study states, “Highly educated unemployed people overwhelmingly report that the reason for unemployment is that they did not find a job that matched their skills”, adding, “This obviously points to the issue being not only one of job creation, but of the creation of decent and desirable jobs.”
According to the study, “This phenomenon of mass unemployment among educated, young men is manifested in various ways. Consider the fact that almost every public sector recruitment drive is massively over-subscribed.”
“For example”, it says, “In early 2017, the West Bengal government held an examination for 6,000 jobs in the Class IV or Group D category, the lowest category of permanent employment in government service. 2.5 million appeared for the exam, many of them holders of graduate and postgraduate degrees.”
Similarly, the study says, “In 2015, 2.3 million applied for around 400 Class IV jobs in Uttar Pradesh, of them 150,000 graduates”, adding, “Such examples may be multiplied.”
The study further says, “Another way the clamour for jobs has manifested is in mass youth rallies across the country demanding reservations in government jobs. Strikingly, these have been mostly led by youth from traditionally dominant agricultural castes such as Patels, Marathas, Jats, and so on.”
It adds, “Even a relatively better performing state such as Karnataka saw a major political campaign on the jobs issue in the lead up to its 2018 assembly elections.”
Thus, the study reveals that workers receiving a regular salary account were less than 20% of all workers. “A household earning over Rs 1 lakh per month is in the top 0.2% of income earners in the country, while 67% of households report monthly earnings of Rs 10,000 or less” – at a time when “the lowest government salary under the Seventh Central Pay Commission is much higher at Rs 18,000.”

Comments

TRENDING

Unlike other revolutionaries, Hindutva icon wrote 5 mercy petitions to British masters

By Shamsul Islam*  The Hindutva icon VD Savarkar of the RSS-BJP rulers of India submitted not one, two,or three but five mercy petitions to the British masters! Savarkarites argue: “There are no evidences to prove that Savarkar collaborated with the British for his release from jail. In fact, his appeal for release was a ruse. He was well aware of the political developments outside and wanted to be part of it. So he kept requesting for his release. But the British authorities did not trust him a bit” (YD Phadke, ‘A complex Hero’, "The Indian Expres"s, August 31, 2004)

Whither SDG goal? India's maternal mortality rate fall target 5.5% per yr, actual 4.5%

By Srinivas Goli, Parul Puri* The maternal mortality ratio (number of maternal deaths per one lakh live births) is a key and sensitive parameter used by health policymakers to monitor maternal health conditions in particular and women's status in general in a country.

Employment loss vis-a-vis pre-Covid situation 'neutralized', claim Govt of India data

By Arup Mitra, DPS Negi, Puneet Kumar Shrivastav* The Labour Bureau, an attached office of the Ministry of Labour & Employment, has been entrusted with the task of conducting the All-India Quarterly Establishment based Employment Survey (AQEES) which has two components namely Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) in respect of establishments employing 10 or more workers (mostly constituting ‘organised’ segment) and Area Frame Establishment Survey (AFES) to build up a frame in respect of establishments employing nine or less workers.

Savarkar 'criminally betrayed' Netaji and his INA by siding with the British rulers

By Shamsul Islam* RSS-BJP rulers of India have been trying to show off as great fans of Netaji. But Indians must know what role ideological parents of today's RSS/BJP played against Netaji and Indian National Army (INA). The Hindu Mahasabha and RSS which always had prominent lawyers on their rolls made no attempt to defend the INA accused at Red Fort trials.

Fresh efforts to subsume Buddhism within Hindu fold 'undermining' Ambedkar

By Aviral Anand*  From Yeola in 1935, when Dr Ambedkar announced that he would not die a Hindu, to Nagpur in 1956 when he converted to Buddhism, is a considerable distance in time. But, there was in him a need to make a public announcement in 1935 about moving away from Hinduism. 

How green revolution led to 'deterioration' of Punjab economy, land, air and water

By Dr Gian Singh*  A recent research paper, based on a survey of 320 farming families in four districts of Punjab, has tried to show that high crop densities and the use of inputs have led to degradation of land, air, water and humans through a rich agricultural structure. Although mechanization has increased agricultural productivity, it has also caused environmental degradation.

Buddhist shrines were 'massively destroyed' by Brahmanical rulers: Historian DN Jha

Nalanda mahavihara By Our Representative Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

Article 370 abrogation hasn't helped curb terrorist attacks: Kashmiri Pandit group

Counterview Desk In a letter to the Lt Governor, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in the wake of recent terrorist attacks in the Valley, Kashmiri Pandit Sangharsh Samiti (KPSS) president Sanjay K Tickoo has taken strong exception to what he calls" callous approach" shown by the administration and security agencies towards "non-migrant Kashmiri Pandits / Hindus living in Kashmir Valley".

India's weak fiscal position: Can higher gold reserves help stem further deterioration?

Counterview Desk  India Gold Policy Centre at the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIMA), which has been researching on global gold markets working closely with the Government of India as as an advisor on various policy initiatives in several key areas relating to the use of gold as a fungible financial asset, has claimed that high levels of Central Bank gold reserves has had “positive implications for India.”

India's 55% firms perceive significant, sustained high-cost pressure: IIM-A survey

Costs per unit compare: % responses By Our Representative  A new Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A) survey, involving responses from executives of around 1,200 companies across India, has said that the cost perceptions data indicates “sustained high-cost pressures”, with over 55% of the firms perceiving significant (over 6%) cost increase.