Skip to main content

India's investment to GDP ratio 31%, as against 38% in 2007-08 during economic crisis, 41.2% in 2011

By Our Representative 
A top New York-based data analysis firm, CEIC Data, has revealed that “India's investment accounted for 30.8 % of its nominal GDP in March 2018, a little higher than 30.1 % in the previous quarter. However, it conceded, India's investment share of nominal GDP data from June 2004 to March 2018 averaged 35.1 %, as against the all-time high of 41.2 % in September 2011. It reached a record low of 29.6 % in March 2017, post-demonetization.
The revelation comes amidst one of India's topmost economists, Arun Kumar, Malcolm S Adiseshiah chair professor, Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi, has said that said that even during the period when the world economy was in crisis, 2007-08, India experienced a “The higher growth” which came at the “back of a 38% rate of investment and a 36% rate of savings, achieved by 2007-08”, adding, “These are now down to 32% and 30%, respectively.”
According to Prof Kumar, who is one of India's foremost experts on black money,“The 2007-08 crisis was a global one but the Indian economy continued to grow when many other economies were slowing down due to increase in fiscal deficit from its record low in 2007.” Referring to a relatively GDP growth in 2012-13, he adds, “The crisis of 2012-13 was due to the rise in petroleum prices and largely due to international factors.”
“However”, he explains, “The current slowdown is largely policy induced and less due to international factors. The twin shocks (demonetisation and the GST) have played havoc with the unorganised sector”, whose data, he adds, has not yet been “captured.”
Pointing out that “household savings have declined sharply and the investment climate remains poor with large numbers of dollar millionaires leaving the country”, the senior expert, refers to the manner in which the Government of India first released and then said these updated GDP data were not final calculation and shouldn't be quoted (click HERE), ostensibly because they suggested a better UPA performance.
Advising government to leave “the data debate to experts and not making it a political one”, Prof Kumar, providing a “larger picture of GDP, says, “The new data on GDP have raised a political storm, with the back series for GDP growth since 1993-94 becoming available.”
According to him, “Its importance lies in the fact that in 2015, a new series (with 2011-12 as the base year instead of 2004-05) was announced which showed India’s GDP growing faster than the earlier series had shown. This was politically advantageous to the NDA government which came to power in 2014.”
“But”, notes Prof Kumar, “In the new series, the rate of growth during the last two years of UPA-II was also higher than what the old series showed so that the economic performance under the UPA also did not look so bad. What the new series also showed was that the NDA had inherited an economy with GDP growing at 8.4% in the second quarter of 2014.”
He adds, “Data show that after the NDA took over, the rate of growth fell and then rose to a peak of 8.65% in 2015-16 Q4. After that it fell for five consecutive quarters – to 5.57% by 2017-18 Q1”, as the “two shocks to the economy (demonetisation and then the GST) had a big negative impact on the rate of growth.”

Comments

TRENDING

Mallika Sarabhai releases speech she was 'not allowed' to give at NID Convocation on Feb 7

Counterview Desk
The National Institute of Design (NID) in Ahmedabad, a Ministry of Commerce and Industry body, landed itself in controversy following its decision to put off its 40th convocation ceremony, where noted danseuse Mallika Sarabhai was invited as chief guest. The ceremony was scheduled to be held on February 7.

Modi, Shah 'forget': Gandhi’s first Satyagraha was against citizenship law of South Africa

By Nachiketa Desai*
Hindu fanatic Nathuram Godse assassinated Mahatma Gandhi once on January 30, 1948 but his followers raising the war cry of ‘Jai Sriram’ are killing the Mahatma every day. In his home state of Gujarat, Gandhiji was killed a thousand times in 2002 when over 2,000 Muslims were butchered, their women raped, homes and shops plundered and set on fire and even unborn babies ripped out of the wombs of their mothers.

As corona virus 'travels' to rural areas, NGO begins training tribals, marginalised women

By Souparno Chatterjee*
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared corona virus a pandemic. Originating from Wuhan in China, it has traversed the entire globe, almost, and claimed more than 16,000 lives already. That’s largely the urban population. In India, despite all the preparedness and war-like promptness to safeguard against the pandemic, several lives have been lost , and hundreds of individuals have tested positive.

Rani Laxmi Bai, Tatya Tope 'martyred' by East India Company, Scindia's forefathers

By Our Representative
In an email alert to Counterview, well-known political scientist Shamsul Islam has said that was “shameful for any political party in democratic India to keep children of Sindhias in their flock” given their role during the First War of Indian Independence (1857). In a direct commentary on Madhya Pradesh Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia moving over to BJP, Prof Islam has quote from a British gazetteer to prove his point.

COVID-19: Dalit rights bodies regret, no relief plan yet for SCs, STs, marginalized

By Our Representative
In a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the National Dalit Watch-National Campaign on Dalit Human Rights, endorsed* by several other Dalit rights organizations, have insisted, the Government of India should particular care of the scheduled castes and tribes, trans folks, persons with disabilities and the women and children from these communities, while fighting against COVID-19 pandemic.

Big 'danger' of NPR: A babu can tag anyone as doubtful citizen, Jharkhand meet told

' By Our Representative
People in large numbers from across Jharkhand gathered at the Raj Bhawan in Ranchi to demand that the Hemant Soren government reject National Population Register (NPR) and stop all NPR-related activities. The people’s organisations which participated in the dharna under the banner of the Jharkhand Janadhikar Mahasabha (JMM) resolved to intensify their struggle, insisting, NPR is not a Hindu-Muslim issue but is essentially anti-poor.

Coronavirus scare ‘pushing’ people from Northeast India into more hardship

By Rishiraj Sinha, Biswanath Sinha*
“No one is born hating another person because of the colour of his skin, or his background or his religion. People learn to hate, and if they can learn to hate, they can be taught to love, for love comes more naturally to the human heart than its opposite.” – Nelson Mandela
***

Gujarat govt plan to 'banish' Gandhian activist anti-democratic, unconstitutional

By Rohit Prajapati*
The current Central and Gujarat governments, and their bureaucracy, have been and are still unable to answer and address the concerns raised, with facts, figures, and constitutional provisions, regarding the terror of tourism in the name of the Statue of Unity and tourism projects surrounding it.

Gujarat construction workers walk home as Rs 2,900 crore welfare fund lies unused

By Our Representative
Situated behind the Gujarat University, some of the families of the migrant construction workers from Dahod and Panchmahals districts of Gujarat, and a few from Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, who had stayed put in make-shift shanties in Ahmedabad’s sprawling GMDC Ground, have begun a long journey, by foot, back to their home villages in the eastern tribal belt of Gujarat.