India's investment to GDP ratio 31%, as against 38% in 2007-08 during economic crisis, 41.2% in 2011

By Rajiv Shah
A top New York-based data analysis firm, CEIC Data, has revealed that India's investment accounted for 30.8 % of its nominal GDP in March 2018, a little higher than 30.1 % in the previous quarter. However, it conceded, India's investment share of nominal GDP data from June 2004 to March 2018 averaged 35.1 %, as against the all-time high of 41.2 % in September 2011. It reached a record low of 29.6 % in March 2017, post-demonetization.
The revelation comes amidst one of India's topmost economists, Arun Kumar, Malcolm S Adiseshiah chair professor, Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi, said that said that even during the period when the world economy was in crisis, 2007-08, India experienced a “The higher growth” which came at the “back of a 38% rate of investment and a 36% rate of savings, achieved by 2007-08”, adding, “These are now down to 32% and 30%, respectively.”
According to Prof Kumar, who is one of India's foremost experts on black money,“The 2007-08 crisis was a global one but the Indian economy continued to grow when many other economies were slowing down due to increase in fiscal deficit from its record low in 2007.” Referring to a relatively GDP growth in 2012-13, he adds, “The crisis of 2012-13 was due to the rise in petroleum prices and largely due to international factors.”

“However”, he explains, “The current slowdown is largely policy induced and less due to international factors. The twin shocks (demonetisation and the GST) have played havoc with the unorganised sector”, whose data, he adds, has not yet been “captured.”
Pointing out that “household savings have declined sharply and the investment climate remains poor with large numbers of dollar millionaires leaving the country”, the senior expert, refers to the manner in which the Government of India first released and then said these updated GDP data were not final calculation and shouldn't be quoted (click HERE), ostensibly because they suggested a better UPA performance.
Advising government to leave “the data debate to experts and not making it a political one”, Prof Kumar, providing a “larger picture of GDP, says, “The new data on GDP have raised a political storm, with the back series for GDP growth since 1993-94 becoming available.”
According to him, “Its importance lies in the fact that in 2015, a new series (with 2011-12 as the base year instead of 2004-05) was announced which showed India’s GDP growing faster than the earlier series had shown. This was politically advantageous to the NDA government which came to power in 2014.”
“But”, notes Prof Kumar, “In the new series, the rate of growth during the last two years of UPA-II was also higher than what the old series showed so that the economic performance under the UPA also did not look so bad. What the new series also showed was that the NDA had inherited an economy with GDP growing at 8.4% in the second quarter of 2014.”
He adds, “Data show that after the NDA took over, the rate of growth fell and then rose to a peak of 8.65% in 2015-16 Q4. After that it fell for five consecutive quarters – to 5.57% by 2017-18 Q1”, as the “two shocks to the economy (demonetisation and then the GST) had a big negative impact on the rate of growth.”

Comments

How community leaders overcome obstacles to protect forests and pastures in remote villages

By Bharat Dogra Dheera Ram Kapaya grew up in such poverty that, unable to attend school himself, he would carry another boy’s heavy school bag for five kilometers just to get a scoop of daliya (porridge). When he was finally able to attend school, he had to leave after class five to join other adolescent workers. However, as soon as opportunities arose, he involved himself in community efforts—promoting forest protection, adult literacy, and other constructive initiatives. His hidden talent for writing emerged during this time, and he became known for the songs and street play scripts he created to promote forest conservation, discourage child marriages, and support other social reforms.

Workers' groups condemn Gujarat Ordinance increasing working hours, warn of statewide agitation

By A Representative At a consultation organised today by the Asangathit Shramik Hit Rakshak Manch at Circuit House in Ahmedabad, leaders of major trade unions and labour rights organisations strongly opposed the Gujarat government’s recent ordinance amending the Factories Act and the draft rules notified under the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) Code, 2020. Around 50 representatives from central trade unions, independent unions, and labour welfare organisations participated in the meeting.

The GMO illusion: Three decades of hype, harm, and false hope

By Sridhar Radhakrishnan Three decades of hype, billions of dollars spent, and still no miracle crop. It's time to abandon the GMO biotech fairy tale and return to the soil, the seed, and the farmer. “Trust us,” they said. “GMOs will feed the world.” Picture a world where there is plenty of food, no hunger, fields grow without chemical pesticides, children are saved from malnutrition, and people live healthily.

Deaths in Chhattisgarh are not just numbers – they mark a deeper democratic crisis

By Sunil Kumar For a while, I had withdrawn into a quieter life, seeking solace in nature. But the rising tide of state-sponsored violence and recurring conflict across India has compelled deeper reflection. The recent incidents of killings in central India—particularly in Chhattisgarh—are not isolated acts. They point to a larger and ongoing crisis that concerns the health of democracy and the treatment of marginalised communities.

Sandra Gonzalez Sanabria: An inspiring life from Colombia’s Amazonian valley

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* In the village of Héctor Ramírez, known as Agua Bonita, in La Montañita, Caquetá, Colombia, a vision of peace and renewal is unfolding. In the pre-2016 period, this would have been nearly impossible for outsiders to visit, as it was the epicenter of violent resistance against state oppression. However, after the Peace Accord was signed between the Colombian government and former revolutionaries—marking the end of a 70-year insurgency that claimed over 400,000 lives until 2025, including civilians, rebel fighters, and security personnel—things began to change. Visiting Agua Bonita during the Global Land Forum in Bogotá revealed a village of hope and resilience. Former FARC revolutionaries have settled here and transformed the village into a center of peace and aspiration.

'Bengali Muslim migrant workers face crackdown in Gurgaon': Academic raises alarm

By A Representative Political analyst and retired Delhi University professor Shamsul Islam has raised serious concerns over the ongoing targeting and detention of Muslim migrant workers from West Bengal in Gurgaon, Haryana. In a public statement, Islam described the situation as "brutal repression" and accused law enforcement agencies of detaining migrants arbitrarily under the pretext of verifying their citizenship.

Indigenous Karen activist calls for global solidarity amid continued struggles in Burma

By A Representative At the International Festival for People’s Rights and Struggles (IFPRS), Naw Paw Pree, an Indigenous Karen activist from the Karen Human Rights Group (KHRG), shared her experiences of oppression, resilience, and hope. Organized with the support of the International Indigenous Peoples Movement for Self-Determination and Liberation (IPMSDL), the event brought together Indigenous and marginalized communities from across the globe, offering a rare safe space for shared learning, solidarity, and expression.

Gender violence defies stringent laws: The need for robust social capital

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra* The tragic death of Miss Soumyashree Bisi, a 20-year-old student from Fakir Mohan College, Balasore, who reportedly self-immolated due to harassment, shocked the conscience of Odisha. Even before the public could process this horrifying event, another harrowing case emerged—a 15-year-old girl from Balanga, Puri, was allegedly set ablaze by miscreants. These incidents are not isolated; they highlight a disturbing pattern of rising gender-based violence across the state and the country.

A matter of deep concern: The silent struggles of India's visually impaired women

By N.S. Venkataraman Visual impairment is one of the most severe forms of physical disability that afflicts humanity, and its impact is even more acute when it affects women. The burden becomes overwhelming when visually impaired women also belong to economically weaker sections of society, with little or no financial or institutional support. Their struggle for dignity, survival, and identity is often invisible—hidden in plain sight across cities and rural corners alike. And yet, these women form a large, neglected segment of society not just in India, but around the world. In India, governmental assistance to visually impaired persons exists but remains minimal. While policies are framed with good intent, they often fall short in implementation. More importantly, no real distinction is made between the unique challenges faced by visually impaired men and women. This gender-blind approach to disability support overlooks the compounded social vulnerabilities that women face due to...

Search This Blog