Skip to main content

Uri attack: Kashmir valley is Modi govt's albatross; unless US wants, Pak will keep upper hand, says Ex-envoy

By Our Representative
A former senior Indian diplomat has said that however much the ruling BJP may talk war following the worst-ever Uri terrorist attack, in which 18 jawans were killed, there is enough indication to suggest that Pakistan “will force India to the negotiating table.”
A career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, who has served as a senior diplomat in Moscow, Islamabad, Bonn, Colombo and Seoul, apart from being ambassador to Turkey and Uzbekistan, MK Bhadrakumar has said, “The bottom line is that the present ruling elites dare not think of crossing any 'red line' that Washington demarcates.”
Pointing out how the US State Department, has distanced itself from the Indian positions with regard to the situation in the Kashmir valley, India-Pakistan tensions and Balochistan, the ex-diplomat says, “Conceivably, the Americans have cautioned our leadership already against making any precipitate military moves.”
“The kind of brazen military adventures that many self-styled Indian defence analysts are espousing will not get Washington's approval”, Bhadrakumar writes in his column in a news portal, adding, “As the Barack Obama administration tiptoes toward the lame-duck period, the last thing Washington wants as legacy is an India-Pakistan conflict.”
Claiming that “things are moving in this direction already”, Bhadrakumar says, “Obama has scheduled a meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Tuesday, September 20 (US time)”, adding, “What emerges out of the Obama-Sharif meeting will be decisive. Sharif can be expected to raise the Kashmir issue and Obama cannot but be sympathetic to the sufferings of the people in the valley.”
Additionally, notes Bhadrakumar, “Sharif will use the opportunity to re-calibrate the Pakistan-US engagement as such. The US too will be keen to lift the ties with Pakistan out of the present trough, given its regional strategies in Afghanistan, the New Cold War, re-balance in Asia, etc.”
“Most important”, he says, “Sharif will highlight Pakistan's willingness to settle disputes and differences, especially Kashmir, through talks. Suffice it to say, Indian ruling elites will be highly vulnerable to American pressure, despite their jingoistic posturing.”
“If the Americans do not want a war between India and Pakistan or any precipitate Indian military moves that violated international law, Modi cannot act otherwise”, predicts the ex-diplomat, adding, “The umbilical cord that ties the Sangh Parivar and our ruling elites to the US establishment may be invisible, but remains robust.”
Stating that “the Indian obduracy against talks is becoming unsustainable”, Bhadrakumar says, “The situation in the valley becomes Modi government's albatross, fundamentally speaking. Unless and until the valley calms down, Pakistan keeps the upper hand.”
“The situation in the Kashmir valley becomes the Modi government's albatross. Unless and until the valley calms down, Pakistan keeps the upper hand”, he says.
This, believes Bhadrakumar, will happen despite the “harsh tone” used by BJP spokesperson Ram Madhav, who remarked, “The prime minister has promised that those behind the Uri terror attack will not go unpunished. That should be the way forward; for one tooth, the complete jaw.”
Yet, on the government's part, says the ex-diplomat, Modi and Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh have refused even to name Pakistan, let alone use Madhav-style bombastic rhetoric.
Modi, for instance, said the perpetrators of the attack will not go unpunished, which is his trademark remark whenever terrorist attacks take place, while Rajnath said, “There are definite and conclusive indications that the perpetrators of Uri attack were highly trained, heavily armed and specially equipped.”

Comments

TRENDING

What's behind public sector banks showing huge profits in 2nd quarter of 2022-23?

By Thomas Franco*  The quarter two results of the public sector banks (PSBs) appear to be noteworthy compared to a few years ago. All these banks showed good profits in the financial year 2021-22. Twelve PSBs made a net profit of Rs 25,685 crore in quarter 2 of FY23 and a total of Rs 40,991 crore in the first half of 2023. The combined profit of 12 banks in March 2022 was Rs 66,539 crore which was 110% more than 2021 – Rs. 31,816 crore. The Asset Quality Review of 2015 saw a surge in NPAs of PSBs jumping to Rs 8.96 lakh crore in March 2018 from Rs 2.17 lakh crore in March 2014. This was simply because the norms for NPAs were changed from 180 days to 90 days, and all restructuring of even genuine accounts was done away with. In 2018 NPA of SBI was 5.73% which has come down to 0.8% in Q2 of FY23. The NPA of Canara Bank has come down to 2.19% from 7.48% in Mar 2018. The same trend is seen in all public banks. Now SBI has seen a jump of 74% in its net profit, while Canara Bank’s profit is

Business back to normal? IIM-A survey says, sales expectations have sharply improved

By Our Representative  The Indian Institute of Management’s Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES), which polls a panel of business leaders to find out their perception of slack in economy, including their inflation expectations, year-ahead cost expectations and the factors influencing price changes, such as profit and sales levels, etc., has said that the cost perceptions data indicates signs of moderation in price pressures. Carried out for September, the survey says, the cost pressure of the reporting firms has shifted from “very significant increase (over 6%) to moderate increase (3.1% to 6%).” It adds, “The percentage of firms perceiving over 10% cost increase y-o-y has declined. Over 21% of the firms in September 2022 round of the survey perceive that costs have increased very significantly (over 10%) – down from 26% recorded in August 2022.” Claiming to be a unique survey, in that it goes straight to businesses -- the price setters -- rather than to consumers or household

Innovative, Hrishikesh Mukherjee's movies often banked on excessive sentimentalism

By Harsh Thakor*  Late Hrishikesh Mukherjee more popularly known as Hrishi Da, whose birth centenary was celebrated recently, ranks amongst India’s most progressive and innovative film makers, exhibiting mastery in craft of making socially relevant themes. Mukherjee knitted plots together with great visualisation and sensitivity, be it in comedy, pathos, anger or romance, weaving every ingredient in proper proportion.  Melodrama was restrained and scripts dissected with surgical skill. Without over romanticisation, Mukherjee would do complete justice to the role of the character. He did not champion art films, but gave commercial films an artistic touch. Rarely have artists transcended the medium of cinema to project the real essence of their cultural values so or film directors who narrate a simple tale of regular families that have characters of unique shades, characters which are bound to touch human emotions universally. His characters frequently underwent life-changing journeys

GoI's productivity linked incentives to corporates 'without independent analysis'

Counterview Desk  Wondering how prudent is the Government of India's (GoI's) Productivity Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, EAS Sarma, former secretary, GoI, in a representation to Nirmala Sitharaman, Union finance minister, has said it appears to be nothing more than subsidy to the private sector without any responsibility. Giving a specific example against the backdrop of announcement of 50% subsidy covering the project cost of the Vedanta Group's decision to set up a semiconductor fabrication plant in Gujarat, in collaboration with Foxconn, Sarma says, "The total cost of this project is reported to be Rs 1,54,000 crore. 50% of this works out to Rs 77,000 crore." Stating that this creates the impression that the entire subsidy allocation for the semiconductor manufacturing sector would be appropriated by this company, Sarma says, "The Gujarat government did not lag behind in liberally announcing similar incentives for the Vedanta-Foxconn project. It offered 7

Buddhist shrines were 'massively destroyed' by Brahmanical rulers: Historian DN Jha

Nalanda mahavihara By Our Representative Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

There aren't any hard data to prove forced conversion, why move for a Central law?

By Fr Cedric Prakash SJ*  Srinivasan Jain, the popular TV anchor with NDTV, has done a tremendous service to the Constitution of India and, thereby, to the people of India! In a hard-hitting exposé on his weekly segment ‘Truth vs Hype’, released on 19 November, Jain talks about the so-called ‘Forced Conversions’ with incontrovertible facts and the falsehoods and myths that are built around the issue!   A good part of his expose is an interview with Ashwin Kumar Upadhyay, the petitioner in the current case on ‘forced conversions’ in the Supreme Court. Jain directly takes on Upadhyay and the 65-page petition submitted by the latter to the Supreme Court. Jain emphatically states that not a single example cited by Upadhyay in the petition comes under the ambit of ‘forced conversion’.  In fact, Jain proves that one of the examples is completely fake! Upadhyay, however, continues with his rant without being able to authenticate or substantiate or furnish a single bit of evidence to prove his

Savarkar 'criminally betrayed' Netaji and his INA by siding with the British rulers

By Shamsul Islam* RSS-BJP rulers of India have been trying to show off as great fans of Netaji. But Indians must know what role ideological parents of today's RSS/BJP played against Netaji and Indian National Army (INA). The Hindu Mahasabha and RSS which always had prominent lawyers on their rolls made no attempt to defend the INA accused at Red Fort trials.

Diminishing returns: Hydro projects contribute less than 10% of India's power generation

Counterview Desk  Pointing out that India’s hydro generation remains around 10% for the last six years, the advocacy group South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP) has said that power generation from hydropower projects continues to show diminishing returns, as has been the story close to three decades now. Yet, says SANDRP in a note, the Government of India continues to push large hydro by announcing a slew of additional subsidies for hydropower projects, more for political economy reason. In fact, attempts are being made to flog unviable hydropower projects with various kind of manipulations, illegalities and violations, it adds. Text : In last six years, from 2016-17 to 2021-22, India’s large hydropower projects (projects above 25 MW installed capacity) have contributed just around 10% of the total power generation, going as low as 9.68% in 2017-18. In fact, in three of these six years, large hydro contributed less than 10% and recovering only marginally in the rest,

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.