Whither GIFT City push? Housing supply soars in Mumbai, Hyderabad, Pune, not Ahmedabad

By Rajiv Shah

A new report by a firm describing itself as a "digital real estate transaction and advisory platform," , states that the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) has been the largest contributor to housing units among India's top eight cities currently experiencing a real estate boom. Accounting for 26.9% of all new launches, it is followed by with 18.7% and with 13.6%. These three cities collectively represented 59.2% of the new inventory introduced during the third quarter (July to September 2025), which is the focus of the report’s analysis.

At the same time, it noted, and witnessed an "extraordinary YoY surge in new launches, with increases of 128.8% and 105.0%, respectively, signalling a significant revival of developer activity."

Refusing to extend similar praise to , Gujarat’s business capital, despite the boost being "injected" by the powers-that-be into the project next to the city, the report—which analyses the real estate boom in eight top cities: Mumbai, Pune, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Chennai, , Kolkata, and Ahmedabad—finds that India’s real estate sector may be standing "on the cusp of a trillion-dollar transformation," projected to touch USD 1 trillion by 2030, and "evolving faster than ever."

However, it laments that the July to September quarter also saw a "contraction in the total number of units sold" despite a "significant increase in the aggregate transactional value," suggesting "a clear indicator of the premium segment’s growing dominance." This, the market "recorded" a year-on-year decline of 0.1%. It commented, "This near-flat performance reflects cautious optimism in the residential market, with both buyers and developers taking a measured approach amid evolving macroeconomic conditions."

In fact, according to the report, new supplies in the third quarter of 2024 were 91,863 units, which declined to 91,807 units in the third quarter of 2025. Sales during the same period fell from 96,544 units in 2024 to 95,547 units in 2025.

Despite this, the report noted, "The total value of sales in Q3 2025 surged by 14% YoY to reach approximately INR 1.52 lakh crore, a clear testament to the increasing preference for higher-value homes. This divergence between volume and value underscores the market’s premiumization, where fewer but more expensive homes are driving overall market growth."

It added that the total "unsold stock across the top eight cities increased by 4% YoY to approximately 5.06 lakh units." The Quarters-to-Sell (QTS)—a key metric representing the time it would take to sell the current unsold stock at the prevailing sales rate—stood at "approximately 17.4 months."

It observed that while this figure may well be within the "comfortable range of 18–24 months, indicating a balanced market where supply is not significantly outpacing demand," a deeper look into the composition of this inventory reveals a "noteworthy" trend: "The surge in new launches in the premium and luxury segments has led to a corresponding increase in unsold stock within these categories. Unsold inventory in the INR 2–5 crore price bracket, for instance, has risen by a significant 47% YoY... This growing stock of high-value properties is a key indicator to monitor, as its absorption will be critical to maintaining market equilibrium."

Ironically, while price movement trends show that Ahmedabad offered the cheapest housing units among the eight cities at Rs 4,820 per square foot, its share of new supplies was just 5.1%, compared to Mumbai’s 26.9%, Pune’s 18.7%, Hyderabad’s 13.6%, Bengaluru’s 13.4%, Chennai’s 10.4%, and Delhi-NCR’s 8.1%. Only Kolkata had a lower share than Ahmedabad—at 3.8%—but its YoY surge in new launches registered a whopping increase of 128.8%.

In fact, the report found that Ahmedabad’s Q3 (July to September 2025) residential market recorded sales of 8,889 units, a decline of (-) 5.0%, while new supplies stood at 4,677 units, a sharp drop of (-) 28.7% YoY. This occurred even though, to quote the report, "Mid-segment dominated demand."

A comparison with other cities shows:

- Bengaluru’s sales were 13,124 units (+17.6% YoY), with new supplies at 12,311 units (-11.9% YoY)

- Chennai’s sales were 7,862 units (+120.8% YoY), and new supplies 9,530 units (+105.0% YoY)

- Delhi-NCR’s sales were 7,961 units (-21.2% YoY), and new supplies 7,435 units (-37.8% YoY)

- Hyderabad’s sales were 17,658 units (+52.7% YoY), and new supplies 12,530 units (+46.6% YoY)

- Kolkata’s new supplies were 3,469 units (+128.8% YoY), and sales 3,729 units (+33.4% YoY)

- Mumbai’s sales were 23,334 units (-22.2% YoY), and new supplies 24,692 units (-20.7% YoY)

- Pune’s new supplies were 17,163 units (+26.7% YoY), and sales 12,990 units (-27.8% YoY)

Meanwhile, a recent media report, citing a study released by the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Associations of India (CREDAI), stated, "Real estate developers in Ahmedabad are postponing new project launches, leading to a sharp 61% decline in new housing units introduced during the first six months of 2025," even as the city’s primary housing market showed a 3% uptick in sales and a 7% increase in average property prices.

Keen real estate watchers commenting on social media platforms say, prices in Ahmedabad—especially and parts of where the boom is "visible"—are so high that demand appears to be dipping. "A few builders I’ve spoken to seem unusually eager or even frustrated, like they’re struggling to close deals," said one commentator, adding, "A lot of people around me are holding back due to job uncertainty and overall economic pressure. It just doesn’t feel like the buying sentiment is strong anymore—yet rates haven’t budged much."

Another observer remarked, "Right now, prices in Ahmedabad (especially SG Highway, Bopal, Gandhinagar) are out of sync with what average people can afford. Many of us are just stretching beyond comfort because we’re scared prices will go up even more," adding, "We won’t buy until prices reflect real affordability... If enough of us wait, wouldn’t that force builders to finally respond?"

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