Skip to main content

India's CO2 emissions projected to grow 6.3% in 2018, highest in the world: Study

By Rajiv Shah
An international interdisciplinary journal, “Earth System Science Data (ESSD)”, has raised the alarm that global fossil CO2 emissions in India grew at a rate of +5.2% per year on an average during the last one decade (2008-17), and are expected to grow even higher in 2018. Suggesting that this growth is higher than China’s CO2 emissions, an increase of +3.0%, an article in the journal says, while the global average for the decade was 1.5 % per year, the emissions decreased in the European Union (EU) countries by −1.8%.
Published by Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH, based in Göttingen, Germany, the research study by more than 50 scholars from across the world, led by Corinne Le Quéré, titled “Global Carbon Budget 2018”, however, says that even today India’s overall CO2 emissions contributed 7% to the global CO2 emissions in 2017, which was just below that of China (27 %), US (15 %), the EU (10%), with the rest of the world contributing 42%. 
According to the study, if the CO2 emission growth rate for India from 2016 to 2017 were +3.9 %, more than anywhere in the world – it was +1.5% for China, −0.5 % for US, +1.2 % for European Union countries and +1.9% for the rest of the world – projection for 2018 suggested that for India ther would be an increase of +6.3 % over 2017. “This is based on separate projections for coal (+7.1 %), oil (+2.9 %), gas (+6.0 %), and cement (+13.4 %)”, the study states. 
For calculating India’s CO2 emissions, the researchers use data from four different sources:
  1. monthly coal production and sales data from the Ministry of Mines (2018), Coal India Limited (CIL, 2018), and Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL, 2018), combined with import data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MCI, 2018) and power station stocks data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA, 2018); 
  2. monthly oil production and consumption data from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (2018); 
  3. monthly natural gas production and import data from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (2018); and 
  4. monthly cement production data from the Office of the Economic Advisor (OEA, 2018). 
Says the study, “All data were available for January to September or October. We use Holt–Winters exponential smoothing with multiplicative seasonality (Chatfield, 1978) on each of these four emission series to project to the end of the current year.”
It adds, “This iterative method produces estimates of both trend and seasonality at the end of the observation period that are a function of all prior observations, weighted most strongly to more recent data, while maintaining some smoothing effect. The main source of uncertainty in the projection of India's emissions is the assumption of continued trends and typical seasonality.”
In the past decade, the study says, fossil CO2 emissions decreased “significantly” in 25 countries. These countries were: Aruba, Barbados, Croatia, Czech Republic, North Korea, Denmark, France, Greece, Greenland, Iceland, Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Trinidad and Tobago, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, the US, Uzbekistan, and Venezuela. Notable was Germany, whose emissions did not decrease significantly.
The study continues, growth in global emissions of 1.6% in 2017 was within the range of the projected growth of 2.0% (range of 0.8 to 3.0%), adding, this was based on national emission projections for China, the US, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for fossil fuel carbon intensity of the economy (IFF trends) for the rest of the world.
In 2016, the study says, the largest absolute contributions to global CO2 emissions from a consumption perspective were China (25%), the US (16 %), the EU (12%), and India (6%). The difference between territorial and consumption emissions (the net emission transfer via international trade) has generally increased from 1990 to around 2005 and remained relatively stable afterwards until the last year available.

Comments

TRENDING

Political consensus? Celebrations, with over 5,000 plus post-vaccine deaths in India

By Rosamma Thomas*  As India fully vaccinated nearly 20% of its population and celebrated the “milestone” of administering one billion (100 crore) Covid-19 vaccine doses, it was time to remember those who died shortly after vaccination . By October 20, 2021 Twitter handle C400T, tracking deaths reported to have occurred after receiving the Covid-19 shot in India, updated the 5,134th death.

Is sacrilege charge against Punjab Dalits any different from Pak blasphemy cases?

Lakhbir Singh, his wife By Vidya Bhushan Rawat*  There is no doubt that Sikhism actually was a revolt against the Brahmanical system and superstition. Guru Granth Saheb is perhaps the only Holy Book which contains matters from different religions as well as those of various Sufi saints, including Kabir, Ravidas, Baba Farid and others. The aim of Sikhism was to create an egalitarian society, and, definitely, Punjab that way is far better than many other States in India, where violence against Dalits is rampant.

Billion vaccine doses? Devil is in details: 70% haven't got 2nd jab; numbers jacked up

By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury*  India has reached the one billion Covid-19 vaccinations milestone. It is indeed a great news and a big salute to the less paid ordinary health-workers in interiors of India for this feat. The government wants all of India's 944 million adults to get vaccinated this year. Around three-quarters of adults in the country of 1.3 billion people have had one shot and around 30 percent are fully vaccinated, the government says.

Savarkar 'criminally betrayed' Netaji and his INA by siding with the British rulers

By Shamsul Islam* RSS-BJP rulers of India have been trying to show off as great fans of Netaji. But Indians must know what role ideological parents of today's RSS/BJP played against Netaji and Indian National Army (INA). The Hindu Mahasabha and RSS which always had prominent lawyers on their rolls made no attempt to defend the INA accused at Red Fort trials.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

Buddhist shrines were 'massively destroyed' by Brahmanical rulers: Historian DN Jha

Nalanda mahavihara By Our Representative Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

Uttarakhand, Kerala disaster due to policies favouring India's developmental mafia

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat*  Two of India’s most beautiful regions where thousands of people go to watch and feel the wonders of nature are suffering because of the extremely disastrous rains and floods. The pain that the rains brought to Kerala and Uttarakhand is a warning to all of us. It's nature’s warning to us to mend our ways.

Religious mobs replicate blasphemy laws, 'threatening' liberty in a free country

Nihangs, Lakhbir Singh By Ajit Singh*   A Dalit man, Lakhbir Singh, was mercilessly beaten up and lynched to death near farmers’ protest site in the State of Haryana allegedly by Nihang Sikhs. It was alleged that he committed blasphemy by desecrating the Holy Book Guru Granth Sahib.

How are Tripura Muslims responsible for attacks in Bangladesh?: 'Concerned' citizens

Counterview Desk  Calling it a “retaliation” of Bangladesh violence, several “concerned citizens”*, including Magsaysay award winning social activist and academic Sandeep Pandey and PV Rajagopal of the Sarvodaya Samaj, have said that the recent attacks on Muslim community in different areas of Tripura is a the reflection of “growing trend of using violence against another community.”

Shabana Azmi joins Pak physicist Hoodbhoy to condemn B'desh anti-minority violence

By Our Representative  Several well-known South Asian activists and public figures of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Maldives have expressed “deep distress” by the spate of violence and killings in Bangladesh on the occasion of Durga Puja and Vijayadashami. “Attacks on minorities are a sign of injustice and a matter of shame for any society and bring a bad name to the Government”, they said in a joint statement.