BJP "success": Upper castes 44% of UP assembly strength, but represent 19% of total voters, says political centre

% voters in UP

By A Representative
A political data analysis centre has contested the claim that the BJP won the election in Uttar Pradesh (UP) on the platform of inclusive growth, pointing out that the BJP’s return to power “signifies a resurgence of representation of the upper castes, who make up 44% the new Assembly." Upper castes make up of 19% of voter share in UP.
Pointing out that “this is 12% more than 2012 and the highest share 1980”, a region-wise breakup by the Trivedi Centre for Political Data, Ashoka University, suggests that “more than 50% MLAs in Awadh, 43% in Doab, 36.6% in the Eastern Uttar Pradesh, 47% in Bundelkhand, 52.5% in Northeastern Uttar Pradesh and more than a third of the MLAs in Rohilkhand and Western Uttar Pradesh are from upper castes. ”
The centre's report (click HERE), says that, interestingly, “the BJP’s victory hasn’t led to an overall increase in representation of OBCs, even though many of them won on the saffron party’s tickets.”
“If we break down these large caste groups, we get a more clearer picture of the changes at work”, the report states, adding, ”As far as the upper castes are concerned, there is a significant rise in the representation of Thakurs and Banias. Brahmin representation remains stable.”
“While the overall OBC representation in the Assembly stays the same, there has been a historic churning within the category”, the report says, adding, “The representation of Yadavs has fallen – they now comprise 17% of the OBC MLAs.”
Pointing out that BJP strategy of keeping the dominant Yadav clan has succeeded, the report says, the representation of the Kurmis, on the other hand, “has increased from 11% to 28% of the OBC contingent. ” Similarly, it adds, “The representation of lower OBCs, a key target of the BJP, has also increased.”
Muslims, the report says, are the biggest losers, as the BJP, which won 312 seats in the 403 seat assembly, “The share of Muslim MLAs in the new Assembly is the lowest it has been since 1991. In 2012, for the first time, Muslims had near-proportionate representation in the Vidhan Sabha (with 17% MLAs from the community). This has fallen to 6.2%. ”
Explains the report, “The involvement of the prime minister and the focus on development and opportunity for all – while also sending signals to the party’s Hindu base through statements, symbols and acronyms in their speeches – add a layer to the fairly vintage BJP strategy of consolidation of upper castes and the lower OBCs.”
An analysis of the voter share suggests that the Samajwadi Party’s vote share (21.8%) is “misleading”, says the report, adding, “If only the seats it contested are taken into account, its vote share rises to 28.3%, just 1% less than in 2012. In contrast, the Congress’ vote share in seats where it contested is only 22%, which indicate that the alliance did not work well.”
The report further says, “Comparing the strike rates of parties – percentage of seats won to seats contested – exemplifies the failure of the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance. The Samajwadi Party’s strike rate is a low 15.1%, while the Congress’ share is 6.14%, at par with its previous performances in Vidhan Sabha elections.”
“In other words”, the report underlines, “Wherever a Congress candidate contested, the alliance under-performed. The large number of tickets given to Congress candidates cost the Samajwadi Party a substantial part of the vote share which, in closely fought races, might have helped reduce the gap with the BJP in terms of seats.”

Comments

Academics urge Azim Premji University to drop FIR against Student Reading Circle

By A Representative A group of academics and civil society members has issued an open letter to the leadership of Azim Premji University expressing concern over the filing of a police complaint that led to an FIR against a student-run reading circle following a recent incident of violence on campus. The signatories state that they hold the university in high regard for its commitment to constitutional values, critical inquiry and ethical public engagement, and argue that it is precisely because of this reputation that the present development is troubling.

Nepal votes amid regional rivalry: Why New Delhi is watching closely

By Nava Thakuria* As Nepal holds an early national election on Thursday (5 March 2026), the people of northeast India, along with other regional observers, are watching the proceedings closely. The vote was necessitated after the government of Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli collapsed in September 2025 following widespread anti-government protests. The election will determine the composition of the 275-member House of Representatives, originally scheduled for 2027, under the stewardship of an interim government led by former Supreme Court justice Sushila Karki.

'Policy long overdue': Coalition of 29 experts tells JP Nadda to act on SC warning label order

By A Representative In a significant development for public health, the Supreme Court of India has directed the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) to seriously consider implementing mandatory front-of-pack warning labels on pre-packaged food products. The order, passed by a bench of Justices J.B. Pardiwala and K.V. Viswanathan on February 10, 2026, comes as the Court expressed dissatisfaction with the regulatory body's progress on the issue.

Vaccination vs screening: Policy questions raised on cervical cancer strategy

By A Representative A public policy expert has written to Union Health Minister J. P. Nadda raising a series of concerns regarding the national Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination campaign launched on February 28 for 14-year-old girls.

From plagiarism to proxy exams: Galgotias and systemic failure in education

By Sandeep Pandey* Shock is being expressed at Galgotias University being found presenting a Chinese-made robotic dog and a South Korean-made soccer-playing drone as its own creations at the recently held India AI Impact Summit 2026, a global event in New Delhi. Earlier, a UGC-listed journal had published a paper from the university titled “Corona Virus Killed by Sound Vibrations Produced by Thali or Ghanti: A Potential Hypothesis,” which became the subject of widespread ridicule. Following the robotic dog controversy coming to light, the university has withdrawn the paper. These incidents are symptoms of deeper problems afflicting the Indian education system in general. Galgotias merely bit off more than it could chew.

Development vs community: New coal politics and old conflicts in Madhya Pradesh

By Deepmala Patel* The Singrauli region of Madhya Pradesh, often described as “India’s energy capital,” has for decades been a hub of coal mining and thermal power generation. Today, the Dhirouli coal mine project in this district has triggered widespread protests among local communities. In recent years, the project has generated intense controversy, public opposition, and significant legal and social questions. This is not merely a dispute over one mine; it raises a larger question—who pays the price for energy development? Large corporate beneficiaries or the survival of local communities?

The new anti-national certificate: If Arundhati Roy is the benchmark, count me in

By Dr. Mansee Bal Bhargava* Dear MANIT Alumni Network Committee, “Are you anti-national?” I encountered this fascinating—some may say intimidating—question from an elderly woman I barely know, an alumna of Maulana Azad College of Technology (MACT, now Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology - MANIT), Bhopal, and apparently one of the founders of the MACT (now MANIT) Alumni Network. The authority with which she posed the question was striking. “How much anti-national are you? What have you done for the Alumni Network Committee to identify you as anti-national?” When I asked what “anti-national” meant to her and who was busy certifying me as such, the response came in counter-questions.

UAPA action against Telangana activist: Criminalising legitimate democratic activity?

By A Representative The National Investigation Agency's Hyderabad branch has issued notices to more than ten individuals in Telangana in connection with FIR No. RC-04/2025. Those served include activists, former student leaders, civil rights advocates, poets, writers, retired schoolteachers, and local leaders associated with the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Indian National Congress.

Minority concerns mount: RTI reveals govt funded Delhi religious meet in December

By Syed Ali Mujtaba* Indian Muslims have expressed deep concern over what they describe as rising hate speech and hostility against their community under the BJP-led government in India. A recent flashpoint was the event organised by Sanatan Sanstha titled “Sanatan Rashtra Shankhnad Mahotsav” in New Delhi on 13–14 December 2025.

Search This Blog