UPA miscalculation? World Bank says, 2011-12 Indian poverty was 12.4%, not 20.1%, blames methodology

A World Bank policy paper, approved by its chief economist Kaushik Basu, has said that India has been over-estimating its poverty levels by adopting an old methodology. The paper says that a major reason why India miscalculated is because it did not include long-term nonfood consumption items in consumer expenditure in its calculation methodology.
Titled “Ending Extreme Poverty and Sharing Prosperity: Progress and Policies”, in a sub-section, “Why poverty in India could be even lower”, the paper suggests, a major “non-food” factor which may have contributed in reducing poverty in India is infrastructure development in remote areas, particularly rural electrification.
As a result, says the paper, which has been authored by Marcio Cruz, James Foster, Bryce Quillin and Philip Schellekens, the actual poverty in India should not be 21.1 per cent, as earlier calculated, but actually 12.4 per cent in 2011-12.
As the reference year for poverty is 2011-12, observers say, it is “safe to assume” that the paper refers to the success achieved by the Rajiv Gandhi Rural Electrification Mission, floated by the previous UPA government, in order to provide subsidized power to the poorer sections of the population across India.
Pointing out that targeted infrastructure development has helped reduce poverty, the paper says, “Rural electrification in India has caused changes in consumption and earnings, with increases in the labor supply of both men and women, and promoted girls’ schooling by reallocating their time to tasks more conducive to school attendance.”
Apart from rural electrification, the paper says, better railroads has helped, too: “Investment in integration and connectedness through railroads in India helped reduce the exposure of agricultural prices and real income to rainfall shocks, and helped diminish the famine and mortality risks associated with recurrent weather shocks.”

Pointing towards what was wrong in the past methodology in poverty calculation, the paper says, “Poverty measures for India are based on the household expenditure surveys done as part of the National Sample Surveys (NSS). Since NSS began in the 1950s, it has used 30-day recall for consumption of both food and nonfood items to measure expenditures.”
“These so-called uniform reference period (URP) consumption aggregates collected in every consumption survey (except 1999/2000) provide the longest consistent series for measuring poverty in India”, the paper says, adding, even the World Bank used this methodology earlier. Under the UR-based consumption, India’s poverty would be 21.2 percent.
However, the NSS “introduced a new consumption series based on a modified mixed reference period (MMRP) in the 2009/10 survey. The MMRP series (which modified the 30-day recall to a 7-day recall for some food items and to a 1-year recall for low-frequency nonfood consumption items) was recommended as a more accurate reflection of consumption expenditures”, the paper says.
“As a result of the shorter recall period for food items, MMRP-based consumption expenditures in both rural and urban areas are 10–12 percent larger than URP-based aggregates. These higher expenditures, combined with a high population density around the poverty line, translates to a significantly lower poverty rate of 12.4 percent for 2011/12”, the paper underlines.

Comments

Shyam Benegal's Mathan a propaganda film that supported 'system'? No way

A few days ago, I watched Manthan, a Shyam Benegal movie released in 1976. If I remember correctly, the first time I saw this movie was with Safdar Hashmi, one of the rare young theater icons who was brutally murdered in January 1989. Back then, having completed an M.A. in English Literature from Delhi University in 1975, we would often move around together.

Beyond the Sattvik plate: Prof Anil Gupta's take on food, ethics, and sustainability

I was pleasantly surprised to receive a rather lengthy comment (I don't want to call it a rejoinder) on my blog post about the Sattvik Food Festival, held near the Sola Temple in Ahmedabad late last year. It came from no less a person than Anil Gupta, Professor Emeritus at the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A), under whose guidance this annual event was held.

Would Gujarat Governor, govt 'open up' their premises for NGOs? Activists apprehensive

Soon after I uploaded my blog about the Gujarat Governor possibly softening his stance on NGOs—evidenced by allowing a fisherfolk association to address the media at a venue controlled by the Raj Bhawan about India’s alleged failure to repatriate fishermen from Pakistani prisons—one of the media conference organizers called me. He expressed concern that my blog might harm their efforts to secure permission to hold meetings on state premises.

No to free thought? How Gujarat's private universities are cowing down their students

"Don't protest"—that's the message private universities across Gujarat seem to be conveying to their students. A senior professor told me that students at the university where he teaches are required to sign an undertaking promising not to engage in protests. "They simply sign the undertaking and hand it over to the university authorities," he said.

'Potentially lethal, carcinogenic': Global NGO questions India refusing to ban white asbestos

Associated with the Fight Inequality Alliance, a global movement that began in 2016 to "counter the concentration of power and wealth among a small elite", claiming to have members in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Kenya, Zambia, the Philippines, and Denmark, the advocacy group Confront Power appears all set to intensify its campaign against India as "the world’s largest asbestos importer".

In lieu of tribute to Pritish Nandy, said to be instrumental in collapse of Reliance-controlled daily

It is widely reported that Pritish Nandy , journalist, author, animal activist, and politician, has passed away. While it is customary to pay tributes to a departing soul—and I, too, have joined those who have posted heartfelt condolences on social media—I cannot forget the way he treated me when he was editor of the Reliance-controlled Business and Political Observer (BPO), for which I had been working informally in Moscow.

Challenging patriarchy? Adopting maternal and marital surnames: Resistance continues

Anandiben Patel The other day, I was talking with a group of family friends. The discussion revolved around someone very close to me who had not changed her official name in documents, including her Aadhaar and passport, after her marriage. However, on social media and within her husband's family, she had adopted her husband's surname as a suffix to her own. I mentioned that there is a growing trend—though not yet widespread—where women prefer to retain their maiden names or add their maiden surnames alongside their husband's surname. Another emerging trend is where men choose to add their mother's name, or even their wife's name, to their own. This revelation surprised my family friends.

Barred premise allowed? 'Modi govt fails to seek release of fishermen languishing in Pak jails'

Are the Indian authorities or their Gujarat counterparts softening their stance toward NGOs that flag human rights concerns? I can't say for sure, as only recently the foreign funding license of one of the most prominent NGOs, Janvikas, headed by the well-known civil society leader Gagan Sethi, was canceled. This NGO has been working on livelihood issues for underprivileged sections of society for several decades.

Sattvik Food Festival: Shouldn't one question notion of purity, cultural exclusion in food choices?

Recently, I visited the Sattvik Food Festival, an annual event in Ahmedabad organized by Anil Gupta, professor emeritus at the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A). I have known Prof. Gupta since 1993, when I sought an appointment to meet him a few months after joining The Times of India in Ahmedabad—one reason why I have always been interested in the activities he is involved in.

Search This Blog