Gujarat model? Budget paper reveals, state's current price growth rate in 2012-13 was worse than all states

GSDP rate of growth in 2012-13 at current prices

By Rajiv Shah
In a major revelation, Gujarat’s rate of growth for the financial year 2012-13 was not only below the national average, but less than all major Indian states which have cared to make public gross state domestic product (GSDP) figures for that year. Latest GSDP figures, revealed by Gujarat’s finance minister Nitin Patel while presenting the interim budget for 2014-15, suggest that the state’s growth rate at current prices (i.e. without deducting inflation) in 2012-13 was just 9.52 per cent (rising from Rs 6,11,767 crore in 2011-12 to Rs 6,70,016 crore in 2012-13). This is against the national average (at current prices) of 13.26 per cent.
More important, no major Indian state experienced such low growth rate. Planning Commission figures show, Andhra Pradesh’s rate of growth was 13.83 per cent, Assam’s 13.45 per cent, Bihar’s 24.96 per cent, Chhattisgarh’s 14.82 per cent, Haryana’s 14.90 per cent, Himachal Pradesh’s 12.95 per cent, Jammu & Kashmir’s 12.72 per cent, Jharkhand’s 14.34 per cent, Karnataka’s 13.47 per cent, Madhya Pradesh’s 16.85 per cent, Maharashtra’s 14.43 per cent, Odisha’s 19.84 per cent, Punjab’s 13.88 per cent, Tamil Nadu’s 11.90 per cent, Uttar Pradesh’s 13.36 per cent, Uttarakhand’s 15.06 per cent, and West Bengal’s 16.89 per cent.
While the Planning Commission has not yet made public GSDP figures for three states – Rajasthan, Kerala and Gujarat -- Gujarat’s GSDP figures were revealed by the state finance minister while presenting the budget on February 21, 2014 in a very strange way to suggest great strides made by Gujarat. He said, “The GSDP (at current prices), which was Rs 1,11,139 crore in the year 2000-01, has increased to Rs 6,70,016 crore in the financial year 2012-13.” For obvious reasons, the finance minister did not care to make a comparison with 2011-12 figures, which have been in public domain.

Gujarat’s 9.52 per cent rate of growth figure has come to light a year after a top Gujarat government budget document, “Statements Under the Gujarat State Fiscal Responsibilities Act, 2005”, had predicted a rate of growth (at current prices) of 13.98 per cent for financial year 2012-13. According to the document, which was released in February 2013, the GSDP in 2012-13 was to be Rs 6,97,298 crore as against Rs 6,11,767 crore in the previous year, 2011-12, suggesting a 13.98 per cent rate of growth.

One of the topmost rating agencies, CARE, backed the state government document’s figure, predicting in March 2013 that Gujarat’s current price GSDP growth for 2012-13 would be would be 14 per cent, and in financial year 2013-14 it would be slightly better – at 14.5 per cent. It did not fail to notice “the impact of slowdown in overall economic activity in India”. While saying that this did not “suggest a weakening of fundamentals of the Gujarat economy,” it insisted, “Gujarat, being one of the major industrial and trade hub as well as a fast-growing consumption centre, is bound to be impacted by such macro-economic constraints.”

Constant price muddle: 3% rate of growth?

Meanwhile, economists and financial experts wonder as to why is the Gujarat government shy of revealing GSDP figures for 2012-13 at constant prices (by deducting the rate of inflation, and which would suggest the real growth rate). The figures have still not been handed over the Planning Commission.
Constant price GSDP figures are Rs 367,540 crore for 2010-11, which rose to Rs 3,98,884 in Rs 2011-12, a rise of 8.53 per cent. If these experts are to be believed, 8.53 per cent rate of growth was achieved when the GSDP at current prices rose by 15.33 per cent.
“While the Gujarat government has still not revealed its deflator rate to deduct inflation for 2012-13, a current price rate of growth of 9.52 per cent should mean, the state economy at constant prices grew by less than three per cent”, an expert said, making a wild guess.

Comments

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

Where’s the urgency for the 2,000 MW Sharavati PSP in Western Ghats?

By Shankar Sharma* A recent news article has raised credible concerns about the techno-economic clearance granted by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) for a large Pumped Storage Project (PSP) located within a protected area in the dense Western Ghats of Karnataka. The article , titled "Where is the hurry for the 2,000 MW Sharavati PSP in Western Ghats?", questions the rationale behind this fast-tracked approval for such a massive project in an ecologically sensitive zone.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual.

Will Bangladesh go Egypt way, where military ruler is in power for a decade?

By Vijay Prashad* The day after former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka, I was on the phone with a friend who had spent some time on the streets that day. He told me about the atmosphere in Dhaka, how people with little previous political experience had joined in the large protests alongside the students—who seemed to be leading the agitation. I asked him about the political infrastructure of the students and about their political orientation. He said that the protests seemed well-organized and that the students had escalated their demands from an end to certain quotas for government jobs to an end to the government of Sheikh Hasina. Even hours before she left the country, it did not seem that this would be the outcome.

Structural retrogression? Steady rise in share of self-employment in agriculture 2017-18 to 2023-24

By Ishwar Awasthi, Puneet Kumar Shrivastav* The National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) launched the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) in April 2017 to provide timely labour force data. The 2023-24 edition, released on 23rd September 2024, is the 7th round of the series and the fastest survey conducted, with data collected between July 2023 and June 2024. Key labour market indicators analysed include the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), Worker Population Ratio (WPR), and Unemployment Rate (UR), which highlight trends crucial to understanding labour market sustainability and economic growth.

Venugopal's book 'explores' genesis, evolution of Andhra Naxalism

By Harsh Thakor* N. Venugopal has been one of the most vocal critics of the neo-fascist forces of Hindutva and Brahmanism, as well as the encroachment of globalization and liberalization over the last few decades. With sharp insight, Venugopal has produced comprehensive writings on social movements, drawing from his experience as a participant in student, literary, and broader social movements.

Authorities' shrewd caveat? NREGA payment 'subject to funds availability': Barmer women protest

By Bharat Dogra* India is among very few developing countries to have a rural employment guarantee scheme. Apart from providing employment during the lean farm work season, this scheme can make a big contribution to important needs like water and soil conservation. Workers can get employment within or very near to their village on the kind of work which improves the sustainable development prospects of their village.

'Failing to grasp' his immense pain, would GN Saibaba's death haunt judiciary?

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* The death of Prof. G.N. Saibaba in Hyderabad should haunt our judiciary, which failed to grasp the immense pain he endured. A person with 90% disability, yet steadfast in his convictions, he was unjustly labeled as one of India’s most ‘wanted’ individuals by the state, a characterization upheld by the judiciary. In a democracy, diverse opinions should be respected, and as long as we uphold constitutional values and democratic dissent, these differences can strengthen us.

94.1% of households in mineral rich Keonjhar live below poverty line, 58.4% reside in mud houses

By Bhabani Shankar Nayak* Keonjhar district in Odisha, rich in mineral resources, plays a significant role in the state's revenue generation. The region boasts extensive reserves of iron ore, chromite, limestone, dolomite, nickel, and granite. According to District Mineral Foundation (DMF) reports, Keonjhar contains an estimated 2,555 million tonnes of iron ore. At the current extraction rate of 55 million tonnes annually, these reserves could last 60 years. However, if the extraction increases to 140 million tonnes per year, they could be depleted within just 23 years.

Search This Blog