Gujarat model? Budget papers reveal, GSDP in 2012-13 was worse than all states

GSDP rate of growth in 2012-13 at current prices

By Rajiv Shah
In a major revelation, Gujarat’s rate of growth for the financial year 2012-13 was not only below the national average, but less than all major Indian states which have cared to make public gross state domestic product (GSDP) figures for that year. Latest GSDP figures, revealed by Gujarat’s finance minister Nitin Patel while presenting the interim budget for 2014-15, suggest that the state’s growth rate at current prices (i.e. without deducting inflation) in 2012-13 was just 9.52 per cent (rising from Rs 6,11,767 crore in 2011-12 to Rs 6,70,016 crore in 2012-13). This is against the national average (at current prices) of 13.26 per cent.
More important, no major Indian state experienced such low growth rate. Planning Commission figures show, Andhra Pradesh’s rate of growth was 13.83 per cent, Assam’s 13.45 per cent, Bihar’s 24.96 per cent, Chhattisgarh’s 14.82 per cent, Haryana’s 14.90 per cent, Himachal Pradesh’s 12.95 per cent, Jammu & Kashmir’s 12.72 per cent, Jharkhand’s 14.34 per cent, Karnataka’s 13.47 per cent, Madhya Pradesh’s 16.85 per cent, Maharashtra’s 14.43 per cent, Odisha’s 19.84 per cent, Punjab’s 13.88 per cent, Tamil Nadu’s 11.90 per cent, Uttar Pradesh’s 13.36 per cent, Uttarakhand’s 15.06 per cent, and West Bengal’s 16.89 per cent.
While the Planning Commission has not yet made public GSDP figures for three states – Rajasthan, Kerala and Gujarat -- Gujarat’s GSDP figures were revealed by the state finance minister while presenting the budget on February 21, 2014 in a very strange way to suggest great strides made by Gujarat. He said, “The GSDP (at current prices), which was Rs 1,11,139 crore in the year 2000-01, has increased to Rs 6,70,016 crore in the financial year 2012-13.” For obvious reasons, the finance minister did not care to make a comparison with 2011-12 figures, which have been in public domain.

Gujarat’s 9.52 per cent rate of growth figure has come to light a year after a top Gujarat government budget document, “Statements Under the Gujarat State Fiscal Responsibilities Act, 2005”, had predicted a rate of growth (at current prices) of 13.98 per cent for financial year 2012-13. According to the document, which was released in February 2013, the GSDP in 2012-13 was to be Rs 6,97,298 crore as against Rs 6,11,767 crore in the previous year, 2011-12, suggesting a 13.98 per cent rate of growth.

One of the topmost rating agencies, CARE, backed the state government document’s figure, predicting in March 2013 that Gujarat’s current price GSDP growth for 2012-13 would be would be 14 per cent, and in financial year 2013-14 it would be slightly better – at 14.5 per cent. It did not fail to notice “the impact of slowdown in overall economic activity in India”. While saying that this did not “suggest a weakening of fundamentals of the Gujarat economy,” it insisted, “Gujarat, being one of the major industrial and trade hubs as well as a fast-growing consumption centres, is bound to be impacted by such macro-economic constraints.”

Constant price muddle: 3% rate of growth?

Meanwhile, economists and financial experts wonder as to why is the Gujarat government shy of revealing GSDP figures for 2012-13 at constant prices (by deducting the rate of inflation, and which would suggest the real growth rate). The figures have still not been handed over the Planning Commission.
Constant price GSDP figures are Rs 367,540 crore for 2010-11, which rose to Rs 3,98,884 in Rs 2011-12, a rise of 8.53 per cent. If these experts are to be believed, 8.53 per cent rate of growth was achieved when the GSDP at current prices rose by 15.33 per cent.
“While the Gujarat government has still not revealed its deflator rate to deduct inflation for 2012-13, a current price rate of growth of 9.52 per cent should mean, the state economy at constant prices grew by less than three per cent”, an expert said, making a wild guess.

Comments

Whither space for the marginalised in Kerala's privately-driven townships after landslides?

By Ipshita Basu, Sudheesh R.C. In the early hours of July 30 2024, a landslide in the Wayanad district of Kerala state, India, killed 400 people. The Punjirimattom, Mundakkai, Vellarimala and Chooralmala villages in the Western Ghats mountain range turned into a dystopian rubble of uprooted trees and debris.

Advocacy group decries 'hyper-centralization' as States’ share of health funds plummets

By A Representative In a major pre-budget mobilization, the Jan Swasthya Abhiyan (JSA), India’s leading public health advocacy network, has issued a sharp critique of the Union government’s health spending and demanded a doubling of the health budget for the upcoming 2026-27 fiscal year.

Iswar Chandra Vidyasagar’s views on religion as Tagore’s saw them

By Harasankar Adhikari Religion has become a visible subject in India’s public discourse, particularly where it intersects with political debate. Recent events, including a mass Gita chanting programme in Kolkata and other incidents involving public expressions of faith, have drawn attention to how religion features in everyday life. These developments have raised questions about the relationship between modern technological progress and traditional religious practice.

Election bells ringing in Nepal: Can ousted premier Oli return to power?

By Nava Thakuria* Nepal is preparing for a national election necessitated by the collapse of KP Sharma Oli’s government at the height of a Gen Z rebellion (youth uprising) in September 2025. The polls are scheduled for 5 March. The Himalayan nation last conducted a general election in 2022, with the next polls originally due in 2027. However, following the dissolution of Nepal’s lower house of Parliament last year by President Ram Chandra Poudel, the electoral process began under the patronage of an interim government installed on 12 September under the leadership of retired Supreme Court judge Sushila Karki. The Hindu-majority nation of over 29 million people will witness more than 3,400 electoral candidates, including 390 women, representing 68 political parties as well as independents, vying for 165 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives.

Jayanthi Natarajan "never stood by tribals' rights" in MNC Vedanta's move to mine Niyamigiri Hills in Odisha

By A Representative The Odisha Chapter of the Campaign for Survival and Dignity (CSD), which played a vital role in the struggle for the enactment of historic Forest Rights Act, 2006 has blamed former Union environment minister Jaynaynthi Natarjan for failing to play any vital role to defend the tribals' rights in the forest areas during her tenure under the former UPA government. Countering her recent statement that she rejected environmental clearance to Vendanta, the top UK-based NMC, despite tremendous pressure from her colleagues in Cabinet and huge criticism from industry, and the claim that her decision was “upheld by the Supreme Court”, the CSD said this is simply not true, and actually she "disrespected" FRA.

With infant mortality rate of 5, better than US, guarantee to live is 'alive' in Kerala

By Nabil Abdul Majeed, Nitheesh Narayanan In 1945, two years prior to India's independence, the current Chief Minister of Kerala, Pinarayi Vijayan, was born into a working-class family in northern Kerala. He was his mother’s fourteenth child; of the thirteen siblings born before him, only two survived. His mother was an agricultural labourer and his father a toddy tapper. They belonged to a downtrodden caste, deemed untouchable under the Indian caste system.

Stands 'exposed': Cavalier attitude towards rushed construction of Char Dham project

By Bharat Dogra* The nation heaved a big sigh of relief when the 41 workers trapped in the under-construction Silkyara-Barkot tunnel (Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand) were finally rescued on November 28 after a 17-day rescue effort. All those involved in the rescue effort deserve a big thanks of the entire country. The government deserves appreciation for providing all-round support.

Ganga-Jamuni Tehzeeb: Akbar to Shivaji -- the cross-cultural alliances that built India

By Ram Puniyani What is Indian culture? Is it purely Hindu, or a blend of many influences? Today, Hindu right-wing advocates of Hindutva claim that Indian culture is synonymous with Hindu culture, which supposedly resisted "Muslim invaders" for centuries. This debate resurfaced recently in Kolkata at a seminar titled "The Need to Protect Hinduism from Hindutva."

Drowning or conspiracy? Singapore findings deepen questions over Zubeen Garg’s death

By Nava Thakuria* For millions of fans of Zubeen Garg, who died under unexplained circumstances in Singapore on 19 September last year, disturbing news has emerged from the island nation. Its police authorities have stated that the iconic Assamese singer died while intoxicated and swimming in the sea without a mandatory life jacket.

Search This Blog