Skip to main content

Gujarat model? Budget paper reveals, state's current price growth rate in 2012-13 was worse than all states

GSDP rate of growth in 2012-13 at current prices
By Rajiv Shah
In a major revelation, Gujarat’s rate of growth for the financial year 2012-13 was not only below the national average, but less than all major Indian states which have cared to make public gross state domestic product (GSDP) figures for that year. Latest GSDP figures, revealed by Gujarat’s finance minister Nitin Patel while presenting the interim budget for 2014-15, suggest that the state’s growth rate at current prices (i.e. without deducting inflation) in 2012-13 was just 9.52 per cent (rising from Rs 6,11,767 crore in 2011-12 to Rs 6,70,016 crore in 2012-13). This is against the national average (at current prices) of 13.26 per cent.
More important, no major Indian state experienced such low growth rate. Planning Commission figures show, Andhra Pradesh’s rate of growth was 13.83 per cent, Assam’s 13.45 per cent, Bihar’s 24.96 per cent, Chhattisgarh’s 14.82 per cent, Haryana’s 14.90 per cent, Himachal Pradesh’s 12.95 per cent, Jammu & Kashmir’s 12.72 per cent, Jharkhand’s 14.34 per cent, Karnataka’s 13.47 per cent, Madhya Pradesh’s 16.85 per cent, Maharashtra’s 14.43 per cent, Odisha’s 19.84 per cent, Punjab’s 13.88 per cent, Tamil Nadu’s 11.90 per cent, Uttar Pradesh’s 13.36 per cent, Uttarakhand’s 15.06 per cent, and West Bengal’s 16.89 per cent.
While the Planning Commission has not yet made public GSDP figures for three states – Rajasthan, Kerala and Gujarat -- Gujarat’s GSDP figures were revealed by the state finance minister while presenting the budget on February 21, 2014 in a very strange way to suggest great strides made by Gujarat. He said, “The GSDP (at current prices), which was Rs 1,11,139 crore in the year 2000-01, has increased to Rs 6,70,016 crore in the financial year 2012-13.” For obvious reasons, the finance minister did not care to make a comparison with 2011-12 figures, which have been in public domain.
Gujarat’s 9.52 per cent rate of growth figure has come to light a year after a top Gujarat government budget document, “Statements Under the Gujarat State Fiscal Responsibilities Act, 2005”, had predicted a rate of growth (at current prices) of 13.98 per cent for financial year 2012-13. According to the document, which was released in February 2013, the GSDP in 2012-13 was to be Rs 6,97,298 crore as against Rs 6,11,767 crore in the previous year, 2011-12, suggesting a 13.98 per cent rate of growth.
One of the topmost rating agencies, CARE, backed the state government document’s figure, predicting in March 2013 that Gujarat’s current price GSDP growth for 2012-13 would be would be 14 per cent, and in financial year 2013-14 it would be slightly better – at 14.5 per cent. It did not fail to notice “the impact of slowdown in overall economic activity in India”. While saying that this did not “suggest a weakening of fundamentals of the Gujarat economy,” it insisted, “Gujarat, being one of the major industrial and trade hub as well as a fast-growing consumption centre, is bound to be impacted by such macro-economic constraints.”

Constant price muddle: 3% rate of growth?

Meanwhile, economists and financial experts wonder as to why is the Gujarat government shy of revealing GSDP figures for 2012-13 at constant prices (by deducting the rate of inflation, and which would suggest the real growth rate). The figures have still not been handed over the Planning Commission.
Constant price GSDP figures are Rs 367,540 crore for 2010-11, which rose to Rs 3,98,884 in Rs 2011-12, a rise of 8.53 per cent. If these experts are to be believed, 8.53 per cent rate of growth was achieved when the GSDP at current prices rose by 15.33 per cent.
“While the Gujarat government has still not revealed its deflator rate to deduct inflation for 2012-13, a current price rate of growth of 9.52 per cent should mean, the state economy at constant prices grew by less than three per cent”, an expert said, making a wild guess.

Comments

TRENDING

IMA vs Ramdev: Why what's good or bad for goose should be good or bad for gander

By Dr Amitav Banerjee, MD* Baba Ramdev and his associate Balkrishna faced the wrath of the Supreme Court for their propaganda about their Ayurvedic products and belittling mainstream medicine. Baba Ramdev had to apologize in court. His apology was not accepted and he may face the contempt of court with harsher punishment. The Supreme Court acted on a public interest litigation (PIL) moved by the Indian Medical Association (IMA).

Women innovators on simple, revolutionary alternate solutions for water problems

By Proshakha Maitra, Mansee Bal Bhargava* The detrimental effects of uncontrolled population rise and accelerated change in the global climate have posed tremendous pressure on the water and sanitation. This calls all stakeholders, from both developed and developing nations, to improve their resilience and to instigate sustainability. It is more crucial than ever to optimise the use of the resources we have on hand since the world population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050.

Magnetic, stunning, Protima Bedi 'exposed' malice of sexual repression in society

By Harsh Thakor*  Protima Bedi was born to a baniya businessman and a Bengali mother as Protima Gupta in Delhi in 1949. Her father was a small-time trader, who was thrown out of his family for marrying a dark Bengali women. The theme of her early life was to rebel against traditional bondage. It was extraordinary how Protima underwent a metamorphosis from a conventional convent-educated girl into a freak. On October 12th was her 75th birthday; earlier this year, on August 18th it was her 25th death anniversary.

Alleged killing of another Bangladesh youth inside Indian territory: NHRC inquiry sought

By Kirity Roy* There was yet another incident of the killing of a Bangladeshi youth by the Border Security Force personnel attached with ‘Barthar’ BOP of ‘G’ Company of 75 BSF Battalion. In last five years several incidents of killings happened under this police station’s jurisdiction and the cases will get the award as “Not Guilty” as usual.

Modi model, Hindutva icon 'justified' alliance with Muslim League before Independence

By Shamsul Islam*  Our PM describes himself as ‘Hindu’ nationalist and member of RSS. He proudly shares the fact that he was groomed to be a political leader by one of the two fathers of the Hindutva politics, MS Golwalkar (the other being VD Savarkar) and given the task of establishing Hindutva polity in India after eradicating secularism.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah*   The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

Crusader for people’s causes, this Hollywood actor entered 'unexplored zones' in US

By Harsh Thakor*  Marlon Brando on April 3rd completes his birth centenary. He perished in 2004, on July 1, aged 80 years. Arguably in Hollywood Brando penetrated sensitivity and versatility at an unparalleled scale and discovered new horizons or explored path breaking zones in acting.

Savarkar 'criminally betrayed' Netaji and his INA by siding with the British rulers

By Shamsul Islam* RSS-BJP rulers of India have been trying to show off as great fans of Netaji. But Indians must know what role ideological parents of today's RSS/BJP played against Netaji and Indian National Army (INA). The Hindu Mahasabha and RSS which always had prominent lawyers on their rolls made no attempt to defend the INA accused at Red Fort trials.

Insider plot to kill Deendayal Upadhyay? What RSS pracharak Balraj Madhok said

By Shamsul Islam*  Balraj Madhok's died on May 2, 2016 ending an era of old guards of Hindutva politics. A senior RSS pracharak till his death was paid handsome tributes by the RSS leaders including PM Modi, himself a senior pracharak, for being a "stalwart leader of Jan Sangh. Balraj Madhok ji's ideological commitment was strong and clarity of thought immense. He was selflessly devoted to the nation and society. I had the good fortune of interacting with Balraj Madhok ji on many occasions". The RSS also issued a formal condolence message signed by the Supremo Mohan Bhagwat on behalf of all swayamsevaks, referring to his contribution of commitment to nation and society. He was a leading RSS pracharak on whom his organization relied for initiating prominent Hindutva projects. But today nobody in the RSS-BJP top hierarchy remembers/talks about Madhok as he was an insider chronicler of the immense degeneration which was spreading as an epidemic in the high echelons of th

India 'neglecting' air, water, vegetation as its world air quality index ranking decelerates

By Dr Gurinder Kaur* The World Air Quality Report 2023 , prepared by a Swiss technology company IQAir, was released on 19 March 2024. According to this report, India is the third most polluted country in the world after Bangladesh and Pakistan, and the capital of India, New Delhi, is the most polluted capital in the world.