West Asian turmoil: India’s strategic dilemma when power speaks through guns

By Vikas Meshram*

The United States–Israel strike on Iran is being justified by many Western nations as both logical and necessary. Yet this attack claimed the life of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, members of his family, and many others. Such an act cannot be justified. It marks a breakdown of the global legal order and underscores the expansion of American imperial ambitions. Since Donald Trump assumed the presidency, his administration has weakened global sovereignty and rendered international institutions—including the United Nations—increasingly ineffective.

The earlier intervention in Venezuela, which saw President Nicolás Maduro arrested and brought to the United States, followed by the killing of Khamenei, signals a drift toward lawlessness in global politics. Power now seems to flow from the barrel of a gun. The sovereignty of smaller nations is under threat. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combined with American actions in Venezuela and Iran, suggests that countries facing geopolitical tensions—such as Taiwan—may confront existential challenges in the future.

Global supply chains are already strained. Trump’s protectionist policies, including steep import tariffs, have further destabilized the world economy. Employment opportunities have shrunk, inflation has surged, and the consequences of the U.S.–Israel strike on Iran will reverberate far beyond the Middle East. Ultimately, humanity bears the true cost of this conflict.

India, too, will inevitably face repercussions. The timing of the attack—coming soon after the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Israel—creates uncertainty in New Delhi’s Middle East policy. The supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted, directly affecting India’s economy. More than nine million Indians working in the region may be impacted, and remittances could decline. Nearly half of India’s imported crude oil passes through Hormuz, and U.S. pressure on India to reduce Russian oil purchases has increased this dependence. Rising tensions will translate into higher fuel prices for Indian consumers.

Oil supplies through the Red Sea are also vulnerable due to threats from Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Diplomatically, India faces a dilemma. As the current BRICS chair, and with Iran now a member, can India openly oppose the attack? Given its historical ties with Iran, can it distance itself from the United States?

The assassination of Khamenei and the subsequent escalation have plunged West Asia into chaos. Trump’s call for Iranians to overthrow the Islamic Republic went unanswered. Instead, Iran retaliated by striking American bases and Israeli positions. Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel, while Iran-backed militias in Iraq targeted U.S. assets. The conflict expanded further when the U.S. attacked the Iranian warship IRIS Dena near Sri Lanka, killing 83 crew members. Rather than collapsing, Iran’s government has consolidated, igniting a broader regional war.

Neither side shows willingness to de-escalate. Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani has rejected negotiations, while Washington considers arming Kurdish militias—an act that risks internal instability. Trump appears to have initiated war without a clear exit strategy. With no major divisions inside Iran, the U.S. may resort to broader bombing campaigns or attempts to fuel civil conflict. Domestically, Trump faces growing criticism, with some far-right supporters dismissing the conflict as “Israel’s war.”

For India, rising oil and gas prices will burden the economy, while millions of Indians in West Asia face risks to their livelihoods and safety. Initially hesitant to condemn Khamenei’s assassination, New Delhi may now need to adopt a firmer stance and work with other global powers to end the conflict. India must also resist any attempt by the U.S. to extend the war into regions close to its borders.

The consequences of this war will be felt worldwide. Iran’s retaliatory strikes have destabilized neighboring economies, disrupted shipping routes, and triggered a severe energy crisis. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz—through which one-fifth of global oil passes—have driven up transportation costs as insurers withdraw war-risk coverage. Brent crude prices have spiked, intensifying inflationary pressures globally. Developing nations, in particular, face mounting economic crises as central banks struggle to balance growth with inflation control.

India, which imports 80 percent of its crude oil—40 percent from West Asia—faces a sharply rising import bill and a widening fiscal deficit. Even a $10 increase per barrel could significantly raise costs. Trade routes through the Gulf are increasingly precarious, threatening both imports and exports. Electronics and other goods reliant on Hormuz shipping may face delays, higher costs, and lost opportunities.

Although the Indian government projects confidence, prolonged conflict will intensify economic challenges. Urgent policy measures are required: diversifying energy sources, strengthening economic safeguards, and preparing for geopolitical instability. The fragile global order is under strain, and India must act decisively to protect its interests.

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*Freelance journalist

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