Supreme Court’s dismissal of PIL on Covid vaccine safety is counter to known science and mathematics

By Bhaskaran Raman*
On 14 Oct 2024, the Supreme Court of India dismissed a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) on the side-effects of the Covid vaccine. In 2021, the world saw the rollout of various Covid vaccine candidates. In India, Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin and Serum Institute of India’s Covishield were rolled out. Covishield was nothing but Oxford’s AstraZeneca relabelled in India.

The importance of open-minded and scientific probe of Covid vaccine safety

In 2020/2021, all Covid vaccines were authorized for emergency use, which meant that the necessary efficacy and safety follow-up was incomplete at that time. The originally approved trials – called randomised controlled trials (RCT) had a “vaccine” group and a “placebo” group for comparison. Such experimental comparison/control is the cornerstone of the scientific method – which even children learn in photosynthesis experiments in class-1. The vaccine trials were scheduled to conclude in late 2022/early 2023. For instance, Covaxin’s trial was scheduled to end in Dec 2022, while Covishield’s trial was scheduled to end in Feb 2023.
In another court case, the government has argued that safety is not of concern now that “Covid is long gone. Vaccination is long over”. Nothing could be further from the truth. The long-term comparison of the two groups “vaccine” versus “placebo” is absolutely essential for answering with confidence, questions such as: “are the increased heart attacks among youth today due to the Covid vaccine or some other reason?” However, none of Covid vaccines (including Covaxin & Covishield) which were originally approved for emergency use, have completed trial results.
The issue of long-term safety is all the more important given that 100+ crore Indians, including tens of crores of children and youth have been administered the emergency use products, although nowhere in the world did children and youth face an emergency due to Covid itself – they were hardly affected by the virus.
Despite the monumental importance however, the Supreme Court gave this issue only a brief few moments before dismissing the PIL without even a hearing. Furthermore, the remarks made by the bench prior to the dismissal are counter to known science and mathematics.

Remarks counter to known science

The bench has remarked “Because of the vaccines, we were able to deal with the pandemic”. Now, the known science behind immunology, which is indeed the basis of vaccines, is that exposure to a virus (weakened in a vaccine or natural) builds robust immunity. As of July 2021, we knew that the majority of Indians had already been exposed to the virus naturally, while only 10% of Indians had been given the vaccines at that time. Therefore the claim of vaccines helping in dealing with the pandemic is counter to known science.
The claim also flies in the face of data from other countries which had wave-after-wave of Covid even after much higher coverage of Covid vaccines. Two stark examples are that of Singapore and Australia, which had no major Covid waves at all, until after 75% of their population had been vaccinated – see graph of data below. More worryingly, both Singapore and Australia have reported record levels of excess deaths in the years following mass Covid vaccination.

The renowned physicist and Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman once said: “It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.” The theory of the Indian Supreme Court that the Covid vaccines helped deal with the pandemic may be beautiful and emotionally satisfying, but it does not match with observed data, and hence it is scientifically flawed.

Remarks counter to known mathematics

During the brief proceedings, the bench also checked if the counsel of the petitioner had any Covid vaccine side-effect. When the counsel said that he had not had any side-effect (thankfully), the bench immediately dismissed the case. This reflects a flawed understanding of basic mathematical probability. If the counsel of the petitioner was not affected, it clearly does not mean that the risk of the vaccine side-effect was zero. As an analogy, if a particular smoker does not get lung cancer (thankfully), it does not mean that there is no risk of smoking.
In dismissing the case without even a hearing, the Supreme Court has overestimated the risk of Covid and underestimated the risk of the vaccine. What is the relative risk of death or serious health damage with versus without the vaccine? It is precisely to answer this question that the vaccine trials are conducted. Surely, the Supreme Court is not expected to know such risk-benefit analysis. However, it is expected to know enough to seek expert opinion and ask for the trial results.

The way forward

The dismissal of the PIL by the Supreme Court is thus on flawed grounds. To repeat, none of the Covid vaccines which were originally approved for emergency use, have completed trial results. The Supreme Court should therefore do the right thing and ask the relevant authorities such as the ICMR and the vaccine manufacturers for the completed trial results.
---
*Professor at IIT Bombay. Views are personal

Comments

Plastic burning in homes threatens food, water and air across Global South: Study

By Jag Jivan In a groundbreaking study spanning 26 countries across the Global South , researchers have uncovered the widespread and concerning practice of households burning plastic waste as a fuel for cooking, heating, and other domestic needs. The research, published in Nature Communications , reveals that this hazardous method of managing both waste and energy poverty is driven by systemic failures in municipal services and the unaffordability of clean alternatives, posing severe risks to human health and the environment.

Economic superpower’s social failure? Inequality, malnutrition and crisis of India's democracy

By Vikas Meshram India may be celebrated as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, but a closer look at who benefits from that growth tells a starkly different story. The recently released World Inequality Report 2026 lays bare a country sharply divided by wealth, privilege and power. According to the report, nearly 65 percent of India’s total wealth is owned by the richest 10 percent of its population, while the bottom half of the country controls barely 6.4 percent. The top one percent—around 14 million people—holds more than 40 percent, the highest concentration since 1961. Meanwhile, the female labour force participation rate is a dismal 15.7 percent.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

The greatest threat to our food system: The aggressive push for GM crops

By Bharat Dogra Thanks to the courageous resistance of several leading scientists who continue to speak the truth despite increasing pressures from the powerful GM crop and GM food lobby , the many-sided and in some contexts irreversible environmental and health impacts of GM foods and crops, as well as the highly disruptive effects of this technology on farmers, are widely known today.

History, culture and literature of Fatehpur, UP, from where Maulana Hasrat Mohani hailed

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* Maulana Hasrat Mohani was a member of the Constituent Assembly and an extremely important leader of our freedom movement. Born in Unnao district of Uttar Pradesh, Hasrat Mohani's relationship with nearby district of Fatehpur is interesting and not explored much by biographers and historians. Dr Mohammad Ismail Azad Fatehpuri has written a book on Maulana Hasrat Mohani and Fatehpur. The book is in Urdu. He has just come out with another important book, 'Hindi kee Pratham Rachna: Chandayan' authored by Mulla Daud Dalmai.' During my recent visit to Fatehpur town, I had an opportunity to meet Dr Mohammad Ismail Azad Fatehpuri and recorded a conversation with him on issues of history, culture and literature of Fatehpur. Sharing this conversation here with you. Kindly click this link. --- *Human rights defender. Facebook https://www.facebook.com/vbrawat , X @freetohumanity, Skype @vbrawat

Epic war against caste system is constitutional responsibility of elected government

Edited by well-known Gujarat Dalit rights leader Martin Macwan, the book, “Bhed-Bharat: An Account of Injustice and Atrocities on Dalits and Adivasis (2014-18)” (available in English and Gujarati*) is a selection of news articles on Dalits and Adivasis (2014-2018) published by Dalit Shakti Prakashan, Ahmedabad. Preface to the book, in which Macwan seeks to answer key questions on why the book is needed today: *** The thought of compiling a book on atrocities on Dalits and thus present an overall Indian picture had occurred to me a long time ago. Absence of such a comprehensive picture is a major reason for a weak social and political consciousness among Dalits as well as non-Dalits. But gradually the idea took a different form. I found that lay readers don’t understand numbers and don’t like to read well-researched articles. The best way to reach out to them was storytelling. As I started writing in Gujarati and sharing the idea of the book with my friends, it occurred to me that while...

Would breaking idols, burning books annihilate caste? Recalling a 1972 Dalit protest

By Rajiv Shah A few days ago, I received an email alert from a veteran human rights leader who has fought many battles in Gujarat for the Dalit cause — both through ground-level campaigns and courtroom struggles. The alert, sent in Gujarati by Valjibhai Patel, who heads the Council for Social Justice, stated: “In 1935, Babasaheb Ambedkar burnt the Manusmriti . In 1972, we broke the idol of Krishna , whom we regarded as the creator of the varna (caste) system.”

'Restructuring' Sahitya Akademi: Is the ‘Gujarat model’ reaching Delhi?

By Prakash N. Shah* A fortnight and a few days have slipped past that grim event. It was as if the wedding preparations were complete and the groom’s face was about to be unveiled behind the ceremonial tinsel. At 3 PM on December 18, a press conference was poised to announce the Sahitya Akademi Awards .

From colonial mercantilism to Hindutva: New book on the making of power in Gujarat

By Rajiv Shah Professor Ghanshyam Shah ’s latest book, “ Caste-Class Hegemony and State Power: A Study of Gujarat Politics ”, published by Routledge , is penned by one of Gujarat ’s most respected chroniclers, drawing on decades of fieldwork in the state. It seeks to dissect how caste and class factors overlap to perpetuate the hegemony of upper strata in an ostensibly democratic polity. The book probes the dominance of two main political parties in Gujarat—the Indian National Congress and the BJP—arguing that both have sustained capitalist growth while reinforcing Brahmanic hierarchies.

Search This Blog