Indus water treaty suspension 'overlooks' crisis ravaging the basin: climate change

By Rajiv Shah

A top environment expert Parineeta Dandekar, in a detailed piece on a site dedicated to water-related issues, has warned that amidst the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) suspension, the more immediate crisis already ravaging the Indus basin is climate change. This has been overlooked. Already, it has claimed lives, displaced communities, and disrupted livelihoods on both sides of the border through recurring disasters and shifting hydrology, particularly in the Chenab basin.

Basing on fieldwork in October-November 2024 across the Chenab basin, community interviews, government reports, and scientific studies, the expert says there are concerns related to climate change impacts, water security, hydropower development, and governance, and there is reason to question the wisdom of pursuing more dams in this vulnerable region.

She notes, as a western river with the most hydropower projects in India, Chenab is critical. Here, hastily advancing dam construction, bypassing essential studies, ignoring local protests, and overlooking disaster risks would prove perilous.

The expert, in her article with inputs from Himanshu Thakkar, states, the Chenab river, formed by the Chandra and Bhaga rivers in Lahaul and Spiti, Himachal Pradesh, is allocated to Pakistan under IWT, with India allowed limited consumptive and unlimited non-consumptive use.

The basin’s glaciers, vital for water security, are retreating rapidly. Studies estimate a 33.3% reduction in glacial volume from 1960 to 2005. With 50% of Chenab’s flow at Akhnoor derived from meltwater, this loss threatens both nations. Glacial melt supports 60% of irrigation in the Indus basin, making glacier health critical.

She notes that, as a western river with the most hydropower projects in India, the Chenab is critical. However, hastily advancing dam construction—bypassing essential studies, ignoring local protests, and overlooking disaster risks—would prove perilous.

The expert, in her article with inputs from Himanshu Thakkar, highlights that the Chenab River, formed by the Chandra and Bhaga rivers in Lahaul and Spiti, Himachal Pradesh, is allocated to Pakistan under the IWT, with India allowed limited consumptive and unlimited non-consumptive use. The basin’s glaciers, vital for water security, are retreating rapidly: studies estimate a 33.3% reduction in glacial volume between 1960 and 2005. With 50% of Chenab’s flow at Akhnoor derived from meltwater, this loss directly threatens both India and Pakistan. Glacial melt supports around 60% of irrigation in the entire Indus Basin.

She details specific vulnerabilities:

Bhaga River, originating near Surajtal Lake, hosts 306 glaciers storing approximately 15 billion tons of water. Between 1971 and 2020, glacier areas shrank significantly, with deglaciation rates doubling (0.25% per year). Rising temperatures (+1.14°C between 1961–2015) and declining precipitation since the 1990s have accelerated ice loss. Small glaciers (<1 km²) are at risk of extinction.
A 2018 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) near Zingzingbar and frequent floods and landslides underline the region’s vulnerability.
The proposed 300 MW Gyspa Hydropower Project, which would submerge 1,260 hectares and four villages, faces strong local opposition.
The Chandra Basin, covering 2,440 km² with 200 glaciers, has seen a 33% projected ice volume loss by the 2050s, with low-altitude glaciers potentially losing up to 97% of their volume by 2100.
Samudra Tapu Lake expanded 905% between 1965 and 2022 (from 14.19 ha to 142.69 ha). A full breach could release 17,342 m³/s, threatening settlements and the planned 126 MW Chhatru Hydropower Project.
Bara Shigri Glacier, the largest in Himachal Pradesh, lost 4 km² over the last century, with a 650-meter snout retreat recorded between 1977 and 1995. Over 60 supraglacial lakes on the glacier increase the risk of GLOFs.
Ghepan Gath Glacier and Lake expanded 178% (from 36.49 ha to 101.30 ha) between 1989 and 2022, threatening Sissu village.

In villages like Tandi and Tholang, drying springs and reduced snowfall have forced communities to rely on river-based lift irrigation, escalating upstream-downstream conflicts. Over 70% of residents surveyed in Lahaul-Spiti reported dried water sources and increasingly extreme weather events.

Despite these risks, three large hydropower projects—104 MW Tandi, 130 MW Rashil, and 175 MW Bardang—are proposed between Tandi and Udaipur. Strong local protests, led by groups like the Save Lahaul Spiti Society, highlight fears of climate disasters, loss of fertile land, and unstable nallahs like Jahlma causing landslides.

Other threatened areas include:

Miyar Nallah, with 156 glacial lakes and 120 glaciers, facing devastating floods in 2013, 2014, 2017, 2023, and 2024. The 120 MW Miyar Hydropower Project, cleared in 2012, sparked controversy due to ignored GLOF risks.
Pangi Valley, where a cascade of projects near Kadu Nallah threatens settlements with an expanding glacial lake formed around 2010.
In Jammu and Kashmir’s Chenab Basin, Mundiksar Lake in Kishtwar expanded 150% between 1980 and 2020, posing risks to major downstream hydropower projects like Bursar and Pakal Dul.

Recent floods near the Baglihar Hydropower Project further highlight the urgency of reconsidering development plans in this fragile landscape, says Dandekar.

She concludes that India's preparedness for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) remains inadequate, with minimal studies or governance frameworks addressing the hydropower-climate risk nexus. She insists that given the Chenab basin’s seismic activity, high disaster vulnerability, and projected climate impacts, rigorous, transparent, and community-centric planning must take precedence over geopolitical or economic motives.

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