180,000 Rohingyas identified for repatriation from Bangladesh: Will Myanmar act?

By Ibrahim Khalil Ahasan* 

A recent development has emerged regarding the potential repatriation of Rohingya refugees. Myanmar authorities have identified 180,000 individuals from a list of 800,000 Rohingyas currently residing in Bangladesh as eligible for return. The identification process was confirmed during the sixth BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok on April 4, where Myanmar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister informed Dr. Khalilur Rahman, High Representative of the Chief Advisor to Bangladesh. Additionally, verification of another 70,000 individuals is currently underway.

Bangladesh submitted this list in six phases between 2018 and 2020. This marks the first occasion that Myanmar has responded with a confirmed list of Rohingya eligible for repatriation, a development seen by some observers as a step forward. Myanmar has also stated its intention to expedite the verification of the remaining 550,000 individuals on the list.

While efforts for repatriation have previously involved both bilateral and multilateral negotiations, substantial progress has remained elusive until now. The Bangladesh government initially internationalized the Rohingya issue and continues to advocate for a phased approach to repatriation. Discussions between Dhaka and Naypyidaw are expected to proceed based on the verified list.

The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, has also urged Myanmar to ensure the safe and sustainable return of the Rohingyas. His involvement is considered a positive development, with expectations that the UN could play a significant role in the process.

Despite these recent moves, challenges remain. The current security situation in Rakhine State, particularly due to ongoing conflict between the Arakan Army and Myanmar’s military (the junta), raises concerns about the feasibility of safe repatriation. The junta reportedly lacks control in Rakhine, complicating any return process. Engaging with all relevant actors, including the Arakan Army, may become necessary for progress.

Strategic diplomatic actions are now essential. Bangladesh may need to:

1. Continue highlighting the Rohingya issue internationally.

2. Maintain a balanced approach to relations with Myanmar’s military and local power structures in Rakhine.

3. Strengthen partnerships with key stakeholders including China, ASEAN countries (notably Malaysia and Indonesia), and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

During a recent visit to China, Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus expressed hope that China would adopt a more active role in facilitating Rohingya repatriation. Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly assured support on this matter. Shortly afterward, Myanmar’s announcement regarding the 180,000 verified individuals was interpreted by some analysts as influenced by diplomatic pressure from external parties, including China.

However, intensified conflict in Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine, poses risks to any planned repatriation. Should the Myanmar government fail to regain control in the region, the practical implementation of repatriation may face further delays or obstacles. Moreover, even if central control is reestablished, local governance structures may continue to be influenced by Rakhine-based actors, necessitating further negotiations.

The prolonged delay in repatriation has led to rising concerns about crime and instability within Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar. With over 1.25 million registered refugees residing in Bangladesh, continued international support is critical. However, funding from donor countries and agencies has shown signs of decline, raising additional concerns. Ensuring timely and sustainable repatriation remains a priority for Bangladesh, which will require continued diplomatic engagement and international cooperation.

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*Bangladesh-based independent columnist and freelance journalist