IIM-A survey 'debunks' GoI claim, says: Sales, profits of Indian firms remain subdued

The Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad's (IIM-A's) latest round of Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES) has found that sales and profit margins of Indian businesses have remained subdued despite tall claims by the Government of India (GoI) that the Indian economy doing well even as world is going in wrong direction.
The survey says that about 56% of the firms are reporting ‘much less than normal’ or ‘somewhat less than normal’ sales in September 2023 – up from 52% reported in August 2023, even as the percentage of firms reporting ‘normal’ and above normal sales has marginally declined to 45% in September 2023 from 47% reported in August 2023.

The IIM-A survey further says that around 36% of the firms in September 2023 are reporting profit margins to be ‘about normal’ or greater, as compared to 39% reported in August 2023, even as pointing ou that, "Overall, the profit margins expectations have remained somewhat subdued" for businesses.

At the same time, the survey says that the cost perceptions data in September 2023 does not indicate any significant increase in cost pressures. The percentage of firms perceiving significant cost increase (over 6%) has remained unchanged around 33% during last four rounds.
The survey seeks to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders, asking them questions about year-ahead cost expectations and the factors influencing price changes, such as profit, sales levels, etc. It is considered unique in that it goes straight to businesses -- the price setters -- rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes.
Providing an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy, results of the Survey are claimed to be useful in understanding the inflation expectations of businesses and complement other macro data required for policy making. Carried out by the Misra Centre for Financial Markets and Economy, IIM-A, results of the survey are based on the responses of around 1,100 companies.

According to the survey, "One year ahead business inflation expectation, as estimated from the mean of individual probability distribution of unit cost increase, has marginally increased to 4.39% in September 2023, from 4.32% reported in August 2023. Average inflation expectation of the firms remained anchored around 4.3% for the past five consecutive months."

Comments

A conman, a demolition man: How 'prominent' scribes are defending Pritish Nandy

How to defend Pritish Nandy? That’s the big question some of his so-called fans seem to ponder, especially amidst sharp criticism of his alleged insensitivity during his journalistic career. One such incident involved the theft and publication of the birth certificate of Masaba Gupta, daughter of actor Neena Gupta, in the Illustrated Weekly of India, which Nandy was editing at the time. He reportedly did this to uncover the identity of Masaba’s father.

Whither Jeffrey Sachs-supported research project which 'created' Gujarat model of development for Modi?

Even as Donald Trump was swearing-in as US President, a friend forwarded to me a YouTube video in which veteran world renowned economist Prof Jeffrey Sachs participated and sought an answer as to why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was "afraid to fly" despite being invited to Donald Trump's swearing in ceremony. This took my memory to 2003, when I -- as representative of the Times of India -- had a short tet-a-tat along with a couple of other reporters with Sachs in the chief minister's office in Gandhinagar.

No to free thought? How Gujarat's private universities are cowing down their students

"Don't protest"—that's the message private universities across Gujarat seem to be conveying to their students. A senior professor told me that students at the university where he teaches are required to sign an undertaking promising not to engage in protests. "They simply sign the undertaking and hand it over to the university authorities," he said.

Busy taking books to the needy, this rationalist exposes miracles in a superstition-infested Gujarat society

I knew his name as a campaigner against the sheer wastage of the large amounts of ghee brought by devotees from across India for a major religious ceremony conducted every year in Rupal village, near Gandhinagar, the Gujarat capital, on the ninth day of Navratri. I had seen him at several places during my visits to different NGO meetings as well as some media conferences.

'Potentially lethal, carcinogenic': Global NGO questions India refusing to ban white asbestos

Associated with the Fight Inequality Alliance, a global movement that began in 2016 to "counter the concentration of power and wealth among a small elite", claiming to have members in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Kenya, Zambia, the Philippines, and Denmark, the advocacy group Confront Power appears all set to intensify its campaign against India as "the world’s largest asbestos importer".

To be or not to be Sattvik: Different communities' differing notions of purity and fasting

This is a continuation of my last blog on Sattvik food. When talking about Sattvik, there is a tendency to overlook what it may mean to different sections of people around the world. First, let me redefine Sattvik: it means having a "serene, balanced, and harmonious mind or attitude." Derived from the Sanskrit word sattva, it variously means "pure, essence, nature, vital, energy, clean, conscious, strong, courage, true, honest, and wise." How do people achieve this so-called purity? Among Gujarati Hindus, especially those from the so-called upper castes who are vegetarians, one common way is fasting. On fasting days, such as agiyarash —the 11th day of the lunar cycle in the Vedic calendar—my close relatives fast but consume milk, fruit juices, mangoes, grapes, bananas, almonds, pistachios, and potato-based foods, including fried items. Another significant fasting period is adhik maas. During this time, many of my relatives "fast" by eating only a single me...

Beyond the Sattvik plate: Prof Anil Gupta's take on food, ethics, and sustainability

I was pleasantly surprised to receive a rather lengthy comment (I don't want to call it a rejoinder) on my blog post about the Sattvik Food Festival, held near the Sola Temple in Ahmedabad late last year. It came from no less a person than Anil Gupta, Professor Emeritus at the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A), under whose guidance this annual event was held.

Would Gujarat Governor, govt 'open up' their premises for NGOs? Activists apprehensive

Soon after I uploaded my blog about the Gujarat Governor possibly softening his stance on NGOs—evidenced by allowing a fisherfolk association to address the media at a venue controlled by the Raj Bhawan about India’s alleged failure to repatriate fishermen from Pakistani prisons—one of the media conference organizers called me. He expressed concern that my blog might harm their efforts to secure permission to hold meetings on state premises.

Sattvik Food Festival: Shouldn't one question notion of purity, cultural exclusion in food choices?

Recently, I visited the Sattvik Food Festival, an annual event in Ahmedabad organized by Anil Gupta, professor emeritus at the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A). I have known Prof. Gupta since 1993, when I sought an appointment to meet him a few months after joining The Times of India in Ahmedabad—one reason why I have always been interested in the activities he is involved in.

Search This Blog