Skip to main content

West 'focusing' on permanently weakening Russia’s military power, not peace

By Katrina vanden Heuvel* 

What are the United States’ goals in the Ukraine war? Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently announced that the United States wants “Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” The U.S. commitment toward that end has been substantial.
Congress passed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act by near-unanimous vote, invoking the “arsenal of democracy” we provided to Britain during World War II. President Biden is seeking $33 billion in additional aid. 
When the defense ministers of some 40 countries gathered at Ramstein Air Base in Germany last month, the focus was not a peace settlement but outright Ukrainian victory or at least the “permanent weakening” of Russia’s military power.
But as the violence continues, the war fever rises, and we had better be clear about our objectives. A commitment to a long, grinding proxy war with Russia would have severe consequences not only for the Ukrainian people but also for the security interests of the United States and its allies.
Ukrainians’ stirring resistance to the Russian invasion should not blind us to the horrendous cost in lives and property. A staggering 28 percent of Ukraine’s population has reportedly been displaced, either internally or abroad. If the war drags on, that share will grow.
About one-third of Ukraine’s basic infrastructure — roads, rail lines, bridges — has been damaged or demolished. Such destruction will continue. Ukraine’s economy is projected to contract by nearly half this year. Even if the war were to stop tomorrow, rebuilding and returning to pre-war levels of production would require years and hundreds of billions of dollars.
Moreover, at a time when the world economy was already wracked by the coronavirus pandemic, this war and the sanctions imposed on Russia are adding to global dislocations. Last year, Russia was the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, the second-largest exporter of crude oil and the third-largest exporter of coal. It leads the world in enriching uranium for nuclear power plants.
Not surprisingly, the price of fuel has soared since the invasion. Our allies in Europe are particularly hard-hit. U.S. citizens, meanwhile, suffer from rising prices in the global markets for steel, aluminum, car batteries, computer chips and much more. Inevitably, this will begin to erode support for the war — as will the growing cost of sustaining it.
Russia and Ukraine together supply 30 percent of wheat and 20 percent of maize to global markets, according to the U.N. World Food Program, as well as three-quarters of the world’s sunflower oil and one-third of its barley. Russia is also a key producer of the products that go into fertilizer.
In the Western hemisphere, many Latin American countries are already facing shortages of fertilizer, with Brazil’s crops particularly at risk. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, 14 African nations depend on Russia and Ukraine for half their wheat, with Eritrea (100 percent), Somalia (more than 90 percent) and Egypt (nearly 75 percent) topping the list. A continuing war could condemn an additional 47 million people to acute hunger, experts estimate.
Inevitably, the continuing conflict strengthens hawks in both the United States and Russia — and makes any settlement more difficult. To justify the growing costs, each must rouse patriotic fervor and emphasize the stakes.
Nuclear arsenals loom in the backdrop. For the decades of the Cold War, Washington and its allies worked to avoid a war with Russia, standing by even as Russia suppressed independence movements in Czechoslovakia and Hungary. So for officials to now cmment about permanently weakening Russia is reckless in the extreme.
If Biden gets his $33 billion, the United States will have dedicated $47 billion in weapons and aid to Ukraine since the invasion began. That is, as William Hartung and Ben Freeman noted in the online magazine Responsible Statecraft, almost as much as the entire State Department budget and more than the Biden administration is committing to address climate change.
Washington may need to drive toward its own interest in ending the war, rather than toward resistance at all costs
This is why it is vital to step back from the emotions stirred by war and assess our real security priorities. The U.S. has far greater security challenges — including the pandemic and global contagion, climate change, the challenges posed by China, and the imperative to rebuild our economy and our democracy. Ukraine’s resistance has captured our attention and our sympathy, but its importance might be better calculated in relation to these other matters.
If Russia conquers the whole of Donbas, as now seems Vladimir Putin’s intent, Moscow may well be readier to talk about a settlement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the United States and NATO would have to decide whether to encourage negotiations.
Zelensky put forth elements of a compromise settlement in the first week of conflict; as the violence has continued, his position has hardened. Washington may need to drive toward its own interest in ending the war, rather than toward resistance at all costs.
Any settlement would no doubt demand withdrawal of Russian forces, probably in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality and territorial integrity, recognition of Russia’s control of Crimea, and some kind of federated status for the separatist provinces in Eastern Ukraine. And sanctions would no doubt need to be lifted.
The United States and its allies should make clear now to Zelensky, Russia, China and India — that is, acknowledging the geopolitics of a future security architecture — that we welcome a settlement that preserves the sovereignty of Ukraine but that also ends the war sooner rather than later. That is our real security interest.
---
*Editorial director and publisher of the Nation, president of the American Committee for U.S.-Russia Accord (ACURA), writes a weekly column at the Washington Post. Twitter: @KatrinaNation. This article is distributed by Globetrotter in partnership with The Nation

Comments

TRENDING

'Draconian' Kerala health law follows WHO diktat: Govt readies to take harsh measures

By Dr Maya Valecha*  The Governor of Kerala has signed the Kerala Public Health Bill, which essentially reverses the people’s campaign in healthcare services in Kerala for decentralisation. The campaign had led to relinquishing of state powers in 1996, resulting in improvement of health parameters in Kerala. Instead, now, enforcement of law through the exercise of power, fines, etc., and the implementation of protocol during the pandemic, are considered of prime importance.

Reject WHO's 'draconian' amendments on pandemic: Citizens to Union Health Minister

By Our Representative  Several concerned Indian citizens have written to the Union Health Minister to reject amendments to the International Health Regulations (IHR) of the World Health Organization (WHO) adopted during the 75th World Health Assembly (WHA75) in May 2022, apprehending this will make the signatories surrender their autonomy to the “unelected, unaccountable and the whimsical WHO in case of any future ‘pandemics’.”

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah*   The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

Bihar rural women entrepreneurs witness 50% surge in awareness about renewal energy

By Mignonne Dsouza*  An endline survey conducted under the Bolega Bihar initiative revealed a significant increase in awareness of renewable energy among women, rising from 25% to 76% in Nalanda and Gaya. Renu Kumari, a 34-year-old entrepreneur from Nalanda, Bihar, operates a village eatery that serves as the primary source of income for her family, including her husband and five children. However, a significant portion of her profits was being directed toward covering monthly electricity expenses that usually reach Rs 2,000. 

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

Work with Rajasthan's camel herders: German scientist wins World Cookbook Award 2023

By Rosamma Thomas*  Gourmand World Cookbook Awards are the only awards for international food culture. This year, German scientist  Ilse Kohler Rollefson , founder of Camel Charisma, the first of India’s camel dairies, in Pali district of Rajasthan, won the award for her work with camel herders in Rajasthan, and for preparing for the UN International Year of Camelids, 2024. 

Why is electricity tariff going up in India? Who is the beneficiary? A random reflection

By Thomas Franco*  Union Ministry of Power has used its power under Section 11 of the Electricity Act, 2003 to force States to import coal which has led to an increase in the cost of electricity production and every consumer is paying a higher tariff. In India, almost everybody from farmers to MSMEs are consumers of electricity.

'Pro-corporate agenda': Odisha crackdown on tribal slum dwellers fighting for land rights

By Our Representative  The civil rights network Campaign Against State Repression (CASR), even as condemning what it calls “brutal repression” on the Adivasi slum dwellers of Salia Sahi in Bhubaneshwar by the Odisha police, has said that the crackdown was against the tribals struggling for land rights in order to “stop the attempts at land-grab by the government.”

Deplorable, influential sections 'still believe' burning coal is essential indefinitely

By Shankar Sharma*  Some of the recent developments in the power sector, as some  recent news items show, should be of massive relevance/ interest to our policy makers in India. Assuming that our authorities are officially mandated/ committed to maintain a holistic approach to the overall welfare of all sections of our society, including the flora, fauna and general environment, these developments/ experiences from different parts of the globe should be clear pointers to the sustainable energy pathways for our people.

Hazrat Aisha’s age was 16, not 6: 'Weak' Hadith responsible for controversy

Sacred chamber where Prophet and Aisha used to live By Dr Mike Ghouse* Muslims must take the responsibility to end the age-old controversy about Hazrat Aisha’s age at the time of her marriage to the Prophet (pbuh) – it was 16, not 6 (minimum was 16, Max 23 per different calculations). The Hadiths published were in good faith, but no one ever checked their authenticity, and they kept passing on from scholar to scholar and book to book.  Thanks to 9/11, Muslims have started questioning and correcting the Hadiths, Seerah, and mistranslations of the Quran. Now, the Ulema have to issue an opinion, also known as Fatwa, to end it and remove those Hadith entries. Mustafa Akyol, a scholar of Islam, implores Muslims to stop deifying “the received traditions” and critically study their religious past, shedding rigid legalism and close-mindedness. Someone else used the phrase “copycat Muslims” to identify scholars who copied what was given to them and passed it on without researching or questioni