IIM-A survey 'contradicts' GoI revival claim: Industry costs high, sales, profits low

By A Representative
The Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad's Business Inflation Expectations Survey (BIES), seeking to provide ways to examine the amount of slack in the economy by polling a panel of business leaders of around 1,100 companies, has said that the cost perceptions data is “yet to indicate any significant reduction of cost pressures.”
Pointing that while there is “further decline in the number of firms perceiving very high cost increase (over 10%)”, nevertheless, around 27% of the firms “are still reporting more than 10% cost increase”, results of the survey state, adding, “Also, the number of firms perceiving significant cost increase (over 6%) has remained high around 57% during last two rounds of the survey.”
Claiming to be a unique survey, as it goes straight to businesses -- the price setters -- rather than to consumers or households, to understand their expectations of the price level changes, providing an indirect assessment of overall demand condition of the economy, a BIES report says, “Sales expectations in December 2021 have sharply dropped.”

Pointing out that this “possibly reflecting negative effects of Covid/Omicron outbreak”, the report says, “Percentage of firms reporting ‘much less than normal’ sales has shot up to 36% from 29% reported in November 2021”, adding, “Over 61% of the firms report that sales are ‘much or somewhat less than normal’, as compared to 57% reported in November 2021.”
“Normal means as compared to the average level obtained in the preceding three years, excluding the Covid-19 period”, the report explains.
The report further reveals, “The firms in December 2021 report muted profit expectations. Around 32% of the firms in the sample report ‘somewhat less than normal’ profit – noticeably up from 26% reported in November 2021.”
The bleak outlook for costs, sales and profits, significantly, comes amidst the Government of India (GoI) claiming a sharp revival of the economy to the pre-pandemic level. The Economic Survey 2021-2022, compiled by Principal Economic Adviser Sanjeev Sanyal and his team of advisors, claims that "there has been a revival in economic activities to pre-pandemic levels."

Stating that the results of this survey are useful in understanding the inflation expectations of businesses and complement other macro data required for policy making, the report says, “One year ahead business inflation expectations in December 2021, as estimated from the mean of individual probability distribution of unit cost increase, have increased by 15 basis points to 5.45% from 5.30% reported in November 2021.”
At the same time, it adds, “The uncertainty of business inflation expectations in December 2021, as captured by the square root of the average variance of the individual probability distribution of unit cost increase, has declined sharply to 1.9% from 2.1% reported in November 2021.”
According to the report, “The businesses in December 2021 expect one year ahead CPI headline inflation to be 4.96%, marginally down from 5.06% reported in October 2021, with a relatively low standard deviation of 0.93%. It has remained around 5% since June 2021.”

Comments

Gujarat Information Commission issues warning against misinterpretation of RTI orders

By A Representative The Gujarat Information Commission (GIC) has issued a press note clarifying that its orders limiting the number of Right to Information (RTI) applications for certain individuals apply only to those specific applicants. The GIC has warned that it will take disciplinary action against any public officials who misinterpret these orders to deny information to other citizens. The press note, signed by GIC Secretary Jaideep Dwivedi, states that the Right to Information Act, 2005, is a powerful tool for promoting transparency and accountability in public administration. However, the commission has observed that some applicants are misusing the act by filing an excessive number of applications, which disproportionately consumes the time and resources of Public Information Officers (PIOs), First Appellate Authorities (FAAs), and the commission itself. This misuse can cause delays for genuine applicants seeking justice. In response to this issue, and in acc...

On Teachers’ Day, remembering Mother Teresa as the teacher of compassion

By Fr. Cedric Prakash SJ It is Teachers’ Day once again! Significantly, the day also marks the Feast of St. Teresa of Calcutta (still lovingly called Mother Teresa). In 2012, the United Nations, as a fitting tribute to her, declared this day the International Day of Charity. A day pregnant with meaning—one that we must celebrate as meaningfully as possible.

Gujarat minority rights group seeks suspension of Botad police officials for brutal assault on minor

By A Representative A human rights group, the Minority Coordination Committee (MCC) Gujarat, has written to the Director General of Police (DGP), Gandhinagar, demanding the immediate suspension and criminal action against police personnel of Botad police station for allegedly brutally assaulting a minor boy from the Muslim community.

Targeted eviction of Bengali-speaking Muslims across Assam districts alleged

By A Representative A delegation led by prominent academic and civil rights leader Sandeep Pandey visited three districts in Assam—Goalpara, Dhubri, and Lakhimpur—between 2 and 4 September 2025 to meet families affected by recent demolitions and evictions. The delegation reported widespread displacement of Bengali-speaking Muslim communities, many of whom possess valid citizenship documents including Aadhaar, voter ID, ration cards, PAN cards, and NRC certification.

Gandhiji quoted as saying his anti-untouchability view has little space for inter-dining with "lower" castes

By A Representative A senior activist close to Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA) leader Medha Patkar has defended top Booker prize winning novelist Arundhati Roy’s controversial utterance on Gandhiji that “his doctrine of nonviolence was based on an acceptance of the most brutal social hierarchy the world has ever known, the caste system.” Surprised at the police seeking video footage and transcript of Roy’s Mahatma Ayyankali memorial lecture at the Kerala University on July 17, Nandini K Oza in a recent blog quotes from available sources to “prove” that Gandhiji indeed believed in “removal of untouchability within the caste system.”

A comrade in culture and controversy: Yao Wenyuan’s revolutionary legacy

By Harsh Thakor* This year marks two important anniversaries in Chinese revolutionary history—the 20th death anniversary of Yao Wenyuan, and the 50th anniversary of his seminal essay "On the Social Basis of the Lin Biao Anti-Party Clique". These milestones invite reflection on the man whose pen ignited the first sparks of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and whose sharp ideological interventions left an indelible imprint on the political and cultural landscape of socialist China.

'Govts must walk the talk on gender equality, right to health, human rights to deliver SDGs by 2030'

By A Representative With just 64 months left to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), global health and rights advocates have called upon governments to honour their commitments on gender equality and the human right to health. Speaking ahead of the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), experts warned that rising anti-rights and anti-gender pushes are threatening hard-won progress on SDG-3 (health and wellbeing) and SDG-5 (gender equality).

Is U.S. fast losing its financial and technological edge under Trump’s second tenure?

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra* The United States, along with its Western European allies, once promoted globalization as a democratic force that would deliver shared prosperity and balanced growth. That promise has unraveled. Globalization, instead of building an even world, has produced one defined by inequality, asymmetry of power, and new vulnerabilities. For decades, Washington successfully turned this system to its advantage. Today, however, under Trump’s second administration, America is attempting to exploit the weaknesses of others without acknowledging how exposed it has become itself.

Bhojpuri cinema’s crisis: When popularity becomes an excuse for vulgarity

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* Bhojpuri cinema is expanding rapidly. Songs from new films are eagerly awaited, and the industry is hailed for its booming business. Yet, big money and mass popularity do not automatically translate into quality cinema or meaningful content. The market has compelled us to celebrate numbers, even when what is being produced is deeply troubling.

Search This Blog