India's GDP loss to be 4.3% due to climate change by 2030, as days become hotter, labour productivity to go down
A recent study has said that India may face a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of climate change to the tune of 4.3 per cent by the year 2030. This loss, it believes, would be essentially the result from the climate change making the “hottest days hotter”, affecting overall productivity.
Pointing out that in 2010, the GDP loss due to climate change was less than one per cent, the study says, India’s “estimated annual losses”, expressed as $US per person parity (PPP), were 55 billion in 2010, but they would reach up to 450 billion in 2030.
PPPs are the rates of currency conversion that equalise the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. In their simplest form, PPPs show the ratio of prices in national currencies of the same good or service in different countries.
Pointing out that these are “tentative estimates”, the study, published in the “Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health”, a Sage publication, adds, “But they indicate the importance of further analysis of this climate impact in many countries struggling to reduce poverty and improve socioeconomic conditions.”
Titled “Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change” and authored by Tord Kjellstrom, and M Meng, the study, analyzing impact of climate change in a large number of countries, says, “The impact on hourly labor productivity due to the increasing need for rest is likely to become a significant problem for many countries and communities.”
Suggesting that India, along with China is one of the worst affected economies because of climate change, the study says, “The local populations are clearly ‘behaviorally adapted’ to these heat levels, and the stories of how outdoor workers cope indicate, for instance, that construction workers in India rest during the whole afternoons in the hot seasons.”
It adds, “As climate change slowly makes the hottest days hotter, and there will be longer periods of excessively hot days, and there will be longer periods of excessively hot days, the impact on hourly labor productivity due to the increasing need for rest is likely to become a significant problem for many countries and communities.”
The study further says, “In the two hottest seasons, large parts of India are so hot that afternoon work becomes almost impossible”, with “local populations clearly ‘behaviorally adapted’ to these heat levels, and the stories of how outdoor workers cope indicate, that construction workers in India rest during the whole afternoons in the hot seasons.”
In order to make maps of the heat situation in different parts of the world, the study collected data in 60 000 grid cells (0.5° × 0.5°) from CRU (Climate Research Unit at University of East Anglia, UK), in order to calculate WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature), a common heat exposure index that combines temperature, humidity, wind speed, and heat radiation into one value for different months and years.
While working out “future model data were worked out”, the study says, “Heat maps for India were produced indicating what time percentage of typical daylight work hours can be maintained at different heat exposure levels, using the international standard as the basis for exposure–effect relationships.”
“The reduction of hourly active work time is expressed as ‘loss of work capacity due to heat’,” the study says, adding, “The data on current or future heat levels in workplaces can be assessed in terms of lost work capacity using exposure – response relationships from the few epidemiological studies available, or by using the recommended rest-to-work ratios in the international standard for workplace heat exposure.”
The study further says, “In the two hottest seasons, large parts of India are so hot that afternoon work becomes almost impossible”, with “local populations clearly ‘behaviorally adapted’ to these heat levels, and the stories of how outdoor workers cope indicate, that construction workers in India rest during the whole afternoons in the hot seasons.”
In order to make maps of the heat situation in different parts of the world, the study collected data in 60 000 grid cells (0.5° × 0.5°) from CRU (Climate Research Unit at University of East Anglia, UK), in order to calculate WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature), a common heat exposure index that combines temperature, humidity, wind speed, and heat radiation into one value for different months and years.
While working out “future model data were worked out”, the study says, “Heat maps for India were produced indicating what time percentage of typical daylight work hours can be maintained at different heat exposure levels, using the international standard as the basis for exposure–effect relationships.”
“The reduction of hourly active work time is expressed as ‘loss of work capacity due to heat’,” the study says, adding, “The data on current or future heat levels in workplaces can be assessed in terms of lost work capacity using exposure – response relationships from the few epidemiological studies available, or by using the recommended rest-to-work ratios in the international standard for workplace heat exposure.”
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