India's investment proposals to be lowest since 2004-05 in fiscal 2017-18; just 60% of those in 2016-17, predicts CMIE

Click on the photograph for an enlarged view

By Rajiv Shah
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the country's top independent consultant, has said that the fiscal 2017-18 "is likely to go down as the worst possible year for investments in India", predicting, "New investment proposals are likely to stabilise around Rs 8 trillion in 2017-18, which would be about 60 per cent of the new proposals made during 2016-17 and would be the lowest level since 2004-05."
Coming against the backdrop of the Government of India basking in the glory over "rise" in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last quarter from 5.7% to 6.3%, the CMIE's fresh analysis, based on the data it has collected, says, "This would be the third consecutive year of a fall in new investments since they spiked momentarily in 2014-15. The difference is that the fall in 2017-18 would be sharper than in earlier years."
The CMIE further says, "Revival of projects that were shelved or abandoned earlier would likely add up to about Rs 1.2 trillion in 2017-18. This would be half of the revivals in 2016-17. Nevertheless, they assume greater importance now than ever before in the light of the fall in new investment proposals."
The CMIE continues, "Revived projects would account for nearly 15 per cent of new proposals in 2017-18. In 2016-17, they were 18 per cent of the value of all new projects. Till 2012-13, they were less than 10 per cent of new proposals". It adds, "Total investments made during the entire implementation of projects that would be completed during 2017-18 are likely to add up to a Rs 4 trillion. This is much smaller compared to Rs 6.3 trillion in 2016-17 and Rs 5.8 trillion in 2015-16."
Pointing out that the sum of Rs 4 trillion is "very small compared to the Rs 11 trillion worth of completions that were initially supposed to be commissioned during the year", the CMIE reveal, "Companies kept delaying their completion dates, and as a result, the estimates of completions during 2017-18 came down progressively during the year to Rs 9 trillion and then to Rs 7 trillion."

Mahesh Vyas

The analysis, by Mahesh Vyas is Managing Director and CEO of the CMIE, says, "The value of projects that get stalled, abandoned or shelved increased during 2017-18. In the first three quarters these added up to Rs 3.9 trillion which is the same as it was in the entire fiscal 2016-17." It adds, they are "slated to increase" to about Rs 6 trillion in fiscal 2017-18.
Noting that "another Rs 5.9 trillion worth of projects were dropped because of lack of any information on them for a very long time", the CMIE says, "Thus, the total attrition during the first three quarters was investments worth Rs 9.9 trillion", which could "cross Rs 14 trillion" in fiscal 2017-18.
In fact, according to the CMIE, "The ratio of projects attrition to accretion, i.e the ratio of projects stalled or dropped to the addition of projects because of new announcements or revival of old ones, is expected to rise sharply during 2017-18", adding, "Attrition would exceed accretions by over 50%... In the past, attrition of investments has never exceeded accretions."
Admitting that the "CMIE is somewhat conservative in announcing that a project is stalled", the analysis says, "Compared to the investments stalled, a much larger value of outstanding investments sits under the header 'Projects with no information, but live'. These amounted to Rs 15.8 trillion as of the end of December 2017 compared to accretions that amounted to Rs 9.9 trillion during the first three quarters ended December 2017."
Even as saying that "the pipeline of investments may quite big at Rs 182 trillion", thr CMIE does not fail to point out that "this pipeline hasn’t grown. It has, in fact, shrunk from its peak of Rs 185 trillion as of March 2017. Half of these outstanding projects have moved beyond the stage of mere announcements..."

Comments

World Bank clarifies: Its 26th rank to India not for universal access to power but for ease of doing business

By Our Representative
In a major embarrassment to the Government of India, the World Bank has reportedly clarified that it has not ranked India 26th out of 130 countries for providing power to its population. The top international banker’s clarification comes following Union Power Minister Piyush Goyal’s claim that India has “improved to 26 position from 99” in access to electricity in just one year.

"Misleading" satellite images being shared on Balakot surgical strike on Jaish camp

By Dr Vinay Kate*
With every passing day more questions are being raised about the surgical strike India did in Balakot as a response to Pulwama attacks. So far the Indian media has claimed mass casulaty of 300+ terrorists of Jaish-e-Mohammad in this surgical strike, but there is hardly any report from foreign media about the same.

Extreme repression, corporate loot, cultural genocide "characterise" India's tribal belt

Counterview Desk
As Lok Sabha polls approach, there is considerable ferment in one section of the population -- India's Adivasis, forming about 8.6 per cent of India's population. Things became particularly critical following the February 14, 2019 Supreme Court order, allegedly seeking to evict lakhs of tribals from their forest lands.

Industry in India "barely growing", export growth 0%, whither moral anchors?

Counterview Desk
In a sharp critique of the Modi government, the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A), one of world renowned economist Prof Kaushik Basu, who is Professor of Economics and Carl Marks Professor of International Studies at Cornell University, has told students at the IIM-A’s 54th Annual Convocation on March 16, 2019 that they have a “special responsibility” on their shoulders, “the responsibility to reject narrow sectarianism, uphold scientific thinking, openness to new ideas, and freedom of speech.”

Gujarat model? Industrial effluents "invade" borewells, discharge coloured water in farms

By Rajiv Shah
In a major embarrassment for Gujarat model, of the 21 samples taken by officials of the state government's environmental watchdog Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) in two villages of Vadodara district and analyzed by its laboratory in Gandhinagar, the state capital, to find out pollution level in groundwater, 16 were assessed as highly contaminated – these were, in fact, found to be discharging reddish, brownish, reddish, or yellowish water.

Refugees as criminals? US govt report blames Amit Shah for calling Bangladeshis termites

Counterview Desk
The chapter “Freedom of Movement” of the US State Department’s “India 2018 Human Rights Report”, released recently, has criticized BJP chief Amit Shah for terming alleged Bangladeshis who may be in Assam as “termites”, because their names were struck down from the list of National Register of Citizens, under preparation in the state.
Pointing out that four million residents were excluded from Assam’s final draft list, leading to “uncertainty over the status of these individuals, many of whose families had lived in the state for several generations”, the report regrets, the Indian law does not even contain the term “refugee,” treating refugees like Rohingiyas as “any other foreigners.”
“Undocumented physical presence in the country is a criminal offense. Persons without documentation were vulnerable to forced returns and abuse”, the report says.
Text of the Freedom of Movement chapter: The law provides for freedom of internal movement, foreign travel, emigration, a…

Congress would win just 9 of 26 Lok Sabha seats: Gujarat Assembly segment-wise analysis

By Rajiv Shah
Even as the Congress plans its first working committee meet in Gujarat on February 28 after an almost 58 year gap, there is reason to wonder what is in store for India’s grand old party in a state which has been long been a BJP bastion – in fact ever since mid-1990s. Ahead of the then assembly polls in late 2012, talking with me, a senior Gujarat Congress leader, currently Rajya Sabha MP, frankly said he saw no reason why Congress would win.

"Pro-corporate" Supreme Court order on FRA would further marginalize Adivasis

By VS Roy David, JP Raju*
For millions of Adivasis and other traditional forest dwellers February 13, 2019 will go down in history as the day of apocalypse. This is like the proverbial Black Friday where millions of most marginalized people of India were ordered by malicious anti-people draconian Supreme Court order depriving them the life and livelihood by evicting them from their habitats.

Financial inclusion? Not micro-loans; India's poor "need" investment in health, education

By Moin Qazi*
India has grown into a global powerhouse. Its economy is soaring but the picture on the ground is still quite arid. The green shoots that you see are only a patch of its landscape. Most Indians are hapless victims of inequity. India is one country where intense poverty abounds in the shadow of immense wealth.

India, Pakistan told to eliminate nuclear weapons: N-war "would kill" 2 billion

Counterview Desk
The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), a non-partisan federation of national medical organizations in 64 countries, representing tens of thousands of doctors, medical students, other health workers, and concerned citizens, claiming to share the common goal of creating a more peaceful and secure world freed from the threat of nuclear annihilation, has warned that “an unprecedented global catastrophe” awaits the globe against the backdrop of warmongering in India and Pakistan.

Counterview

Search This Blog