India's investment proposals to be lowest since 2004-05 in fiscal 2017-18: CMIE

By Rajiv Shah
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the country's top independent consultant, has said that the fiscal 2017-18 "is likely to go down as the worst possible year for investments in India", predicting, "New investment proposals are likely to stabilise around Rs 8 trillion in 2017-18, which would be about 60 per cent of the new proposals made during 2016-17 and would be the lowest level since 2004-05."
Coming against the backdrop of the Government of India basking in the glory over "rise" in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last quarter from 5.7% to 6.3%, the CMIE's fresh analysis, based on the data it has collected, says, "This would be the third consecutive year of a fall in new investments since they spiked momentarily in 2014-15. The difference is that the fall in 2017-18 would be sharper than in earlier years."
The CMIE further says, "Revival of projects that were shelved or abandoned earlier would likely add up to about Rs 1.2 trillion in 2017-18. This would be half of the revivals in 2016-17. Nevertheless, they assume greater importance now than ever before in the light of the fall in new investment proposals."
The CMIE continues, "Revived projects would account for nearly 15 per cent of new proposals in 2017-18. In 2016-17, they were 18 per cent of the value of all new projects. Till 2012-13, they were less than 10 per cent of new proposals". It adds, "Total investments made during the entire implementation of projects that would be completed during 2017-18 are likely to add up to a Rs 4 trillion. This is much smaller compared to Rs 6.3 trillion in 2016-17 and Rs 5.8 trillion in 2015-16."
Pointing out that the sum of Rs 4 trillion is "very small compared to the Rs 11 trillion worth of completions that were initially supposed to be commissioned during the year", the CMIE reveal, "Companies kept delaying their completion dates, and as a result, the estimates of completions during 2017-18 came down progressively during the year to Rs 9 trillion and then to Rs 7 trillion."

Mahesh Vyas

The analysis, by Mahesh Vyas is Managing Director and CEO of the CMIE, says, "The value of projects that get stalled, abandoned or shelved increased during 2017-18. In the first three quarters these added up to Rs 3.9 trillion which is the same as it was in the entire fiscal 2016-17." It adds, they are "slated to increase" to about Rs 6 trillion in fiscal 2017-18.
Noting that "another Rs 5.9 trillion worth of projects were dropped because of lack of any information on them for a very long time", the CMIE says, "Thus, the total attrition during the first three quarters was investments worth Rs 9.9 trillion", which could "cross Rs 14 trillion" in fiscal 2017-18.
In fact, according to the CMIE, "The ratio of projects attrition to accretion, i.e the ratio of projects stalled or dropped to the addition of projects because of new announcements or revival of old ones, is expected to rise sharply during 2017-18", adding, "Attrition would exceed accretions by over 50%... In the past, attrition of investments has never exceeded accretions."
Admitting that the "CMIE is somewhat conservative in announcing that a project is stalled", the analysis says, "Compared to the investments stalled, a much larger value of outstanding investments sits under the header 'Projects with no information, but live'. These amounted to Rs 15.8 trillion as of the end of December 2017 compared to accretions that amounted to Rs 9.9 trillion during the first three quarters ended December 2017."
Even as saying that "the pipeline of investments may quite big at Rs 182 trillion", thr CMIE does not fail to point out that "this pipeline hasn’t grown. It has, in fact, shrunk from its peak of Rs 185 trillion as of March 2017. Half of these outstanding projects have moved beyond the stage of mere announcements..."

Comments

US-China truce temporary, larger trade war between two economies to continue

By Prabir Purkayastha The Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, South Korea on 30 October 2025 may have brought about a temporary relief in the US-China trade war. But unless we see the fine print of the agreement, it is difficult to assess whether this is a temporary truce or the beginning of a real rapprochement between the two nations. The jury is still out on that one and we will wait for a better understanding of what has really been achieved in Busan.

Mergers and privatisation: The Finance Minister’s misguided banking agenda

By Thomas Franco The Finance Minister has once again revived talk of merging two or three large public sector banks to make them globally competitive. Reports also suggest that the government is considering appointing Managing Directors in public sector banks from the private sector. Both moves would strike at the heart of India’s public banking system . Privatisation undermines the constitutional vision of social and economic justice, and such steps could lead to irreversible damage.

Buddhist shrines were 'massively destroyed' by Brahmanical rulers: Historian DN Jha

Nalanda mahavihara By Rajiv Shah Prominent historian DN Jha, an expert in India's ancient and medieval past, in his new book , "Against the Grain: Notes on Identity, Intolerance and History", in a sharp critique of "Hindutva ideologues", who look at the ancient period of Indian history as "a golden age marked by social harmony, devoid of any religious violence", has said, "Demolition and desecration of rival religious establishments, and the appropriation of their idols, was not uncommon in India before the advent of Islam".

New RTI draft rules inspired by citizen-unfriendly, overtly bureaucratic approach

By Venkatesh Nayak* The Department of Personnel and Training , Government of India has invited comments on a new set of Draft Rules (available in English only) to implement The Right to Information Act, 2005 . The RTI Rules were last amended in 2012 after a long period of consultation with various stakeholders. The Government’s move to put the draft RTI Rules out for people’s comments and suggestions for change is a welcome continuation of the tradition of public consultation. Positive aspects of the Draft RTI Rules While 60-65% of the Draft RTI Rules repeat the content of the 2012 RTI Rules, some new aspects deserve appreciation as they clarify the manner of implementation of key provisions of the RTI Act. These are: Provisions for dealing with non-compliance of the orders and directives of the Central Information Commission (CIC) by public authorities- this was missing in the 2012 RTI Rules. Non-compliance is increasingly becoming a major problem- two of my non-compliance cases are...

Political misfires in Bihar: Reasons behind the Opposition's self-inflicted defeat

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* The Bihar Vidhansabha Election 2025 verdict is out. I maintained deliberate silence about the growing tribe of “social media” experts and their opinions. Lately, these do not fascinate me. Anyone forming an opinion solely on the basis of these “experts” lives in a fool’s paradise. I do not watch them, nor do I follow them on Twitter. I stayed away partly because I was not certain of a MahaGathbandhan victory, even though I wanted it. But my personal preference is not the issue here. The parties disappointed.

Shrinking settlements, fading schools: The Tibetan exile crisis in India

By Tseten Lhundup* Since the 14th Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959, the Tibetan exile community in Dharamsala has established the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) as the guardian of Tibetan culture and identity. Once admired for its democratic governance , educational system , and religious vitality , the exile community now faces an alarming demographic and institutional decline.

N-power plant at Mithi Virdi: CRZ nod is arbitrary, without jurisdiction

By Krishnakant* A case-appeal has been filed against the order of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) and others granting CRZ clearance for establishment of intake and outfall facility for proposed 6000 MWe Nuclear Power Plant at Mithi Virdi, District Bhavnagar, Gujarat by Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) vide order in F 11-23 /2014-IA- III dated March 3, 2015. The case-appeal in the National Green Tribunal at Western Bench at Pune is filed by Shaktisinh Gohil, Sarpanch of Jasapara; Hajabhai Dihora of Mithi Virdi; Jagrutiben Gohil of Jasapara; Krishnakant and Rohit Prajapati activist of the Paryavaran Suraksha Samiti. The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has issued a notice to the MoEF&CC, Gujarat Pollution Control Board, Gujarat Coastal Zone Management Authority, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and case is kept for hearing on August 20, 2015. Appeal No. 23 of 2015 (WZ) is filed, a...

Celebrating 125 yr old legacy of healthcare work of missionaries

Vilas Shende, director, Mure Memorial Hospital By Moin Qazi* Central India has been one of the most fertile belts for several unique experiments undertaken by missionaries in the field of education and healthcare. The result is a network of several well-known schools, colleges and hospitals that have woven themselves into the social landscape of the region. They have also become a byword for quality and affordable services delivered to all sections of the society. These institutions are characterised by committed and compassionate staff driven by the selfless pursuit of improving the well-being of society. This is the reason why the region has nursed and nurtured so many eminent people who occupy high positions in varied fields across the country as well as beyond. One of the fruits of this legacy is a more than century old iconic hospital that nestles in the heart of Nagpur city. Named as Mure Memorial Hospital after a British warrior who lost his life in a war while defending his cou...

Sardar Patel was on Nathuram Godse's hit list: Noted Marathi writer Sadanand More

Sadanand More (right) By A Representative In a surprise revelation, well-known Gujarati journalist Hari Desai has claimed that Nathuram Godse did not just kill Mahatma Gandhi, but also intended to kill Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel. Citing a voluminous book authored by Sadanand More, “Lokmanya to Mahatma”, Volume II, translated from Marathi into English last year, Desai says, nowadays, there is a lot of talk about conspiracy to kill Gandhi, Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose, and Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, but little is known about how the Sardar was also targeted.

Search This Blog