Skip to main content

Impact of "improvement" in economic complexity under UPA: By 2024 India to be fastest growing economy

Top 20 countries which will grow fastest till 2024
By Our Representative
Basing on analysis of decade-long economic growth data and policies between 2004 and 2014 – which Manmohan Singh was India’s Prime Minister – the Centre for International Development (CID) at Harvard University has predicted that India has the “potential to be the fastest growing economy over the coming decade.”
Measuring what they call economic complexity index (ECI), which captures the diversity and sophistication of productive capabilities embedded in a country’s exports to generate growth projections”, CID researchers say that between 2004 and 2014, India’s ranking sharply went up from No 47 to No 42 among 101 countries of the world.
As against India’s five points improvement in ECI, the countries that have made the greatest improvements in their complexity because of fast growth in per capita income over the past decade are China (ECI rank: up 16 positions to rank 17th globally), and South Korea (up 11 positions to rank 4th).
Other countries, which have shown better improvement over the last decade in ECI ranking, include Thailand (up 13 points), the Philippines (up 29 points), Vietnam (up 36 points), Egypt (up 14 points), Pakistan (up 11 points), and Bangladesh (up 18 points).
The CID at Harvard University is a university-wide center that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty. It is a leading research hub focusing on resolving the dilemmas of public policy associated with generating stable, shared, and sustainable prosperity in developing countries.
“The projections reflect the latest 2014 trade data available. The global landscape for economic growth that results shows greatest potential for rapid growth in South Asia and East Africa. Conversely, oil economies and other commodity-driven economies face the slowest growth outlook”, CID says.
“India tops the global list for predicted annual growth rate for the coming decade, at 7.0 percent”, the researchers say, adding, “This far outpaces projections for its northern neighbor and economic rival, China, which the researchers expect to face a continued slowdown to 4.3 percent growth annually to 2024.”
This would happen because, says Ricardo Hausmann, Professor of the Practice of Economic Development at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), the leading researcher of The Atlas of Economic Complexity, and the director of CID, during the decade in question India made “important gains in productive capabilities, allowing it to diversify its exports into more complex products, including pharmaceuticals, vehicles, even electronics.”
“We expect that India’s recent gains in complexity, coupled with its ability to continue improving it will drive higher incomes, positioning India to lead global economic growth over the coming decade,” Hausmann says.
Interestingly, other countries which are projected to grow fast include African countries, Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya, rank in the top ten, with all predicted to grow at least 5.5 percent annually. “The growth forecast also looks favorably on Southeast Asia, where the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam look to drive growth well above global averages”, the research says.
As for the growth in advanced economies, it is predicted to remain slow with the US expected to grow at 2.8 percent annually to 2024, with higher growth predicted in the United Kingdom and Spain, and slower growth in Italy and Germany.
The countries that rank in the top positions in ECI are Japan, Germany, and Switzerland holding the greatest economic complexity, the research says, adding, however, during the decade of 2004-14, “Great Britain (10th), the United States, (13th) and France (16th) have all slid.”

Comments

TRENDING

'Modi govt's assault on dissent': Foreign funds of top finance NGO blocked

By Rajiv Shah  In a surprise move, the Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, has cancelled the foreign funding license of the well-known advocacy group, Centre for Financial Accountability (CFA), known for critically examining India's finance and banking sectors from human rights and environmental angle.

Misleading ads 'manipulate, seduce, lure' to market unhealthy harmful food

By Our Representative  The Nutrition Advocacy in Public Interest (NAPI) in its new report “50 Shades of Food Advertising” has sought to expose how seductive, luring, manipulative or deceptive these advertisements can be. Consequences of such advertising are increased intake of unhealthy food products that is associated with obesity and diabetes, it says. 

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah*   The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

'Wedding of the century': What does Mukesh Ambani want to prove by such extravaganza?

By NS Venkataraman*  Mukesh  Ambani,   a renowned Indian industrialist who is said to be the richest person in India and  one of the richest persons in the world,   has just now conducted the wedding celebration of  his son in Mumbai,   with unheard level of lavishness in India.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

'Failure of governance': India, China account for 54% pollution-related deaths globally

By Vikas Parsaram Meshram*   A recent report jointly prepared by UNICEF and the independent research organization Health Effects Institute has been released, and the statistics within it are alarming. It states that in 2021, air pollution caused the deaths of 2.1 million Indians, including 169,000 children who hadn't yet fully experienced life. These figures are indeed distressing and raise questions about why there hasn't been more serious effort in this direction, putting policymakers to shame. 

'28% rise in sedition cases': Top global NGO alliance rates India's civil space 'repressed'

By Rajiv Shah Rating India's civic space as repressed , Civicus, a global civil society alliance, in its new report submitted to the UN Human Rights Committee (UNHRC) on the state of civic space in the country has said that the use of sedition law against the Modi government’s critics continues. "Under the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sedition cases have increased by 28 per cent with over 500 cases against more than 7,000 people", it says.

How US is using Tibetans to provoke conflict with China 'ignoring' India

By Lobsang Tenzin*  On July 12, US President Joe Biden signed the Resolve Tibet Act, and Tibetans cheered for it, believing that the law promotes a resolution of the dispute between Tibet and China. Is this true? First, let's look at the issue of the ownership of Tibet. 

Over 3.8 billion animals at risk: India on crossroad in animal welfare practices

By Rupali Soni*  In a collaborative effort, the India Animal Fund and Dasra have unveiled their report , "Our Shared Future | Securing Animal Welfare, Human Wellbeing, and Sustainability in India." This landscape report provides a thorough overview of animal welfare and underscores its indispensable role within India's socio-economic and ecological frameworks. It also illustrates how animal welfare is intricately intertwined with public health, labor welfare, and climate resilience.