Gujarat OBC Muslims' 1.9% poverty in 2011-12 based on NSSO sample size of 5 households!

Arvind Panagariya

By Rajiv Shah
In a major goof-up, the Government of India’s National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) chose just about five households as a sample in order to assess monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) of OBC Muslims of rural Gujarat. While a senior Gujarat-based activist has characterized this as a “deliberate statistical fraud”, what has made the matter particularly serious is, overlooking the small sample size, top economist Arvind Panagariya of the Columbia University has calculated that rural Gujarat’s poverty levels came down to 7.7 per cent in 2011-12 from 31 per cent in 2004-05, and the reason for this is high rise in the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP).
Known for his neo-liberal approach, Prof Panagariya, in a recent study, “Poverty by Social, Religious & Economic Groups in India and Its Largest States: 1993-94 to 2011-12”, done jointly with Vishal More, has happily said that in the rural areas, “Gujarat leads with the lowest poverty ratio of 7.7 per cent for the Muslims.” The figures, which he has worked out on the basis of NSSO’s unreleased data on MPCE of religious groups, suggest that Gujarat’s rural poverty has gone down so drastically that it has reached even lower than Kerala (eight per cent)!

Prof Panagariya is known for his closeness to Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. In a recent rejoinder to “The Economist”, he justified Modi’s alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots saying they should not be called a “pogrom” but just riots. In a letter, jointly written with Columbia University’s Prof Jagdish Bhagwati, also of the neo-liberal school, he said, there is “no basis” in the involvement of Modi in the riots, as no evidence has been found against him by the special investigation team appointed by the Supreme Court.

Amitabh Kundu

Based on the sample size of five households, Gujarat's OBC Muslims' poverty ratio has been worked out at at just 1.9 per cent in 2011-12, down from 40.5 per cent in 2004-05. The NSSO’s "blunder" on Gujarat rural poverty has come to light, following the Jawaharlal Nehru University professor Amitabh Kundu’s analysis of state-level poverty data.

Prof Kundu has been heading a committee appointed by Government of India to assess the condition of Muslims in India over the last seven years, following implementation of the Sachar Committee report of 2006 on the state of minorities India. The committee recently submitted its draft report to the Ministry of Minority Affairs, Government of India.
While recognizing that the Gujarat data suggest -- when analysed “in the context of the changes in employment structure and other macro economic variables, comparing these with the changes in other similar states” – that “there has been sharp poverty reduction during 2004-05 to 2011-12 in the country and specifically in the state of Gujarat”, he has underlined, there is a “high standard error” because of an extremely small sample size for rural Gujarat’s OBC.
He told Counterview, the sample size for OBC Muslims is five in 2011-12 and 25 in 2004-5 in Gujarat. For total Muslims also, the size is much below the acceptable level and with high standard error. Not just Gujarat, for a few other states, too, the sample is below ten!

Overall, too, the sample size of Muslims (OBC Muslims plus Other Muslims) taken together is extremely small, hence it is impossible to reach a conclusion. This is one reason, the committee under him has “not used the state-level NSS data for drawing inferences regarding the conditions of the Muslims.”

Comments

Modi’s Israel visit strengthened Pakistan’s hand in US–Iran truce: Ex-Indian diplomat

By Jag Jivan M. K. Bhadrakumar , a career diplomat with three decades of service in postings across the former Soviet Union, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, and Turkey, has warned that the current truce in the US–Iran war is “fragile and ridden with contradictions.” Writing in his blog India Punchline , Bhadrakumar argues that while Pakistan has emerged as a surprising broker of dialogue, the durability of the ceasefire remains uncertain.

Incarceration of Prof Saibaba 'revives' the question: What is crime, who is criminal?

By Kunal Pant* In 2016, a Supreme Court Judge asked the state of Maharashtra, “Do you want to extract a pound of flesh?” The statement was directed against the state for contesting the bail plea of Delhi University Professor GN Saibaba. Saibaba was arrested in 2014, a justification for which was to prevent him from committing what the police called “anti-national activities.”

Why Indo-Pak relations have been on 'knife’s edge' , hostilities may remain for long

By Utkarsh Bajpai* The past few decades have seen strides being made in all aspects of life – from sticks and stones to weaponry. The extreme case of this phenomenon has been nuclear weapons. The menace caused by nuclear weapons in the past is unforgettable. Images of Hiroshima and Nagasaki from 1945 come to mind, after the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the cities.

Manufacturing, services: India's low-skill, middle-skill labour remains underemployed

By Francis Kuriakose* The Indian economy was in a state of deceleration well before Covid-19 made its impact in early 2020. This can be inferred from the declining trends of four important macroeconomic variables that indicate the health of the economy in the last quarter of 2019.

Food security? Gujarat govt puts more than 5 lakh ration cards in the 'silent' category

By Pankti Jog* A new statistical report uploaded by the Gujarat government on the national food security portal shows that ensuring food security for the marginalized community is still not a priority of the state. The statistical report, uploaded on December 24, highlights many weaknesses in implementing the National Food Security Act (NFSA) in state.

The soundtrack of resistance: How 'Sada Sada Ya Nabi' is fueling the Iran war

By Syed Ali Mujtaba* The Persian track “ Sada Sada Ya Nabi ye ” by Hossein Sotoodeh has taken the world by storm. This viral media has cut across linguistic barriers to achieve cult status, reaching over 10 million views. The electrifying music and passionate rendition by the Iranian singer have resonated across the globe, particularly as the high-intensity military conflict involving Iran entered its second month in March 2026.

Lata Mangeshkar, a Dalit from Devdasi family, 'refused to sing a song' about Ambedkar

By Pramod Ranjan* An artist is known and respected for her art. But she is equally, or even more so known and respected for her social concerns. An artist's social concerns or in other words, her worldview, give a direction and purpose to her art. History remembers only such artists whose social concerns are deep, reasoned and of durable importance. Lata Mangeshkar (28 September 1929 – 6 February 2022) was a celebrated playback singer of the Hindi film industry. She was the uncrowned queen of Indian music for over seven decades. Her popularity was unmatched. Her songs were heard and admired not only in India but also in Pakistan, Bangladesh and many other South Asian countries. In this article, we will focus on her social concerns. Lata lived for 92 long years. Music ran in her blood. Her father also belonged to the world of music. Her two sisters, Asha Bhonsle and Usha Mangeshkar, are well-known singers. Lata might have been born in Indore but the blood of a famous Devdasi family...

'Batteries now cheap enough for solar to meet India's 90% demand': Expert quotes Ember study

By A Representative Shankar Sharma, Power & Climate Policy Analyst, has urged India’s top policymakers to reconsider the financial and ecological implications of the country’s energy transition strategy in light of recent global developments. In a letter dated April 10, 2026, addressed to the Union Ministers of Finance, Power, New & Renewable Energy, Environment, Forest & Climate Change, and the Vice Chair of NITI Aayog, with a copy to the Prime Minister, Sharma highlighted concerns over India’s ambitious plans for coal gasification and the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR).

Health Day ads spark row as NAPi targets Britannia campaign, criticizes celebrity endorsement

By A Representative The advocacy group Nutrition Advocacy in Public Interest (NAPi) has raised concerns over what it describes as misleading advertising of ultra-processed food products (UPFs), particularly those high in sugar, fat and salt, calling for stricter regulations and an end to such promotions across media platforms.

Search This Blog