Skip to main content

Failure of rural job plan? "Pro-Modi" economist finds deep urban-rural differentials in Gujarat, other states

By Rajiv Shah
A recent research work by a well-known pro-Narendra Modi economist, who many say is one of the key contenders for an authoritative posting in the Government of India in case the Gujarat CM becomes India’s next prime minister, has found that while urban Gujarat has seen a sharp rise in worker-population ratio (WPR) compared to any other part of India, the rural counterpart has suffered. Prof Ravindra Dholakia drawn the conclusion in a recent research paper, “Urban – Rural Income Differential in Major States: Contribution of Structural Factors”, co-authored with two Gujarat government officials.
While Prof Dholakia is a faculty at the Indian Institute of Management, the others, Manish B. Pandya and Payal M. Pateriya, are with the department of economics and statistics, notorious for poor standards in analysing data. The study finds that Gujarat’s WPR in urban areas was 37.7 per cent in 2004-05, reaching 38.4 per cent in 2011-12. But the rural WPR of Gujarat has gone down sharply – it was 51.4 per cent in 2004-05, sharply plummeting to 44.7 per cent in 2011-12. Dholakia is known for his neo-liberal views, and believes that market forces will automatically “adjust” other sectors, including human development.
As a result of the sharp fall in rural WPR, if the calculations made by Dholakia and others are to be believed, Gujarat’s urban-rural income differentials (URID), too, have gone up sharply. Thus, the differential, on a scale was one, was 0.73 in 2004-05, and in 2011-12, it reached 0.86. The URID in Gujarat, the calculations suggest, is one of the highest in India – higher than several states, including Karnataka (0.84), Maharashtra (0.75), Tamil Nadu (0.81), Madhya Pradesh (0.80), Rajasthan (0.77), and so on.
The team headed by Dholakia says that, in the country as whole, the URID have shown an rising trend over time in most of India, adding, in Gujarat and several other states has particularly gone up (since 1993-94, after which the data have been analyzed) particularly sharply. Other states which show a similar “consistency” are Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and West Bengal.
The scholars admit, interestingly, that the urban-rural differential would have been even higher, but for the programmes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), which promises 100 days of employment to anyone in the country’s rural areas at state expense. Had this programme not been there, rural worker-participation rate, they seem to suggest, would have gone been particularly very low.
If one goes by this logic, analysts say, it would suggests that states like Gujarat are not implementing MGNREGS well enough! While the authors do not say so in so many words, they warn, “If targeted programmes aimed specifically at increasing rural labour productivity in different sectors are not implemented, the URID will show tendency to increase in future.” They add, the differential suggests that the structure of the work force in the economy as a whole “would change because of possible differences in the urban-rural population.”
As a result of the urban-rural income differential, Dholakia and others find, while there have been very sharp changes in employment pattern in Gujarat’s urban areas – one of the highest in India – it is not as high the state’s rural areas. In fact, in the rural areas, change in the employment structure is given the unit 0.045, which is lower than several states, including Kerala (0.126), Punjab (0.048), West Bengal (0.055), Maharashtra (0.052), Tamil Nadu (0.053), and so on.
In monetary terms, Prof Dholakia and others believe, the rural per capita gross state domestic product (GSDP) in Gujarat comes to Rs 64,499 in 2011-12, which is lower than Tamil Nadu (Rs 71,648), Kerala (Rs 75,128), Punjab (Rs 73,418), and Haryana (Rs 87,614). As for the urban areas, ther per capita GSDP in Gujarat comes to Rs 1,53,434, which is lower than two states – Maharasthra (Rs 1,68,178) and Haryana (Rs 1,75,960).
Significantly, these are average income levels, and hide the difference in income levels between different classes. Even then, the authors seek to conclude, these calculations would help “various development efforts undertaken by government and private sector entities by properly evaluating and monitoring long term programmes.”

Comments

TRENDING

Andhra team joins Gandhians to protest against 'bulldozer action' in Varanasi

By Rosamma Thomas*  November 1 marked the 52nd day of the 100-day relay fast at the satyagraha site of Rajghat in Varanasi, seeking the restoration of the 12 acres of land to the Sarva Seva Sangh, the Gandhian organization that was evicted from the banks of the river. Twelve buildings were demolished as the site was abruptly taken over by the government after “bulldozer” action in August 2023, even as the matter was pending in court.  

Right-arm fast bowler who helped West Indies shape arguably greatest Test team in cricket history

By Harsh Thakor*  Malcolm Marshall redefined what it meant to be a right-arm fast bowler, challenging the traditional laws of biomechanics with his unique skill. As we remember his 25th death anniversary on November 4th, we reflect on the legacy he left behind after his untimely death from colon cancer. For a significant part of his career, Marshall was considered one of the fastest and most formidable bowlers in the world, helping to shape the West Indies into arguably the greatest Test team in cricket history.

Tributes paid to pioneer of Naxalism in Punjab, who 'dodged' police for 60 yrs

By Harsh Thakor*  Jagjit Singh Sohal, known as Comrade Sharma, a pioneer of Naxalism in Punjab, passed away on October 20 at the age of 96. Committed to the Naxalite cause and a prominent Maoist leader, Sohal, who succeeded Charu Majumdar, played hide and seek with the police for almost six decades. He was cremated in Patiala.

Campaign group urges INDIA alliance to release Jharkhand manifesto to counter BJP’s 'divisive' agenda

By Our Representative  The Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan, an advocacy group, has issued a press release urging the INDIA alliance to release a Jharkhand-specific manifesto to counter the BJP’s "divisive" electoral agenda. With just two weeks remaining before the assembly elections, the INDIA coalition has yet to announce its plans and priorities for the state. Meanwhile, the BJP's campaign, according to the press release, is centered around communalism, divisiveness, and distraction from Jharkhand's core issues.

Israel's 'war crime': 18,000 children died not just from bomb explosions but also starvation

By Sandeep Pandey*  Last year 6 years old Madiha was a guest during Diwali at our home in Lucknow. Listening to the sound of fire crackers bursting outside she remarked, ‘It appears as if we’re in Gaza.’ She has probably no idea of the extent of damage and loss of life that has taken place in Palestine but can relate to sound of crackers as bombs exploding over Gaza.

United organisations oppose privatisation of health services in Madhya Pradesh

By Our Representative  In a strong show of opposition, multiple health associations under the umbrella of the United Organisations for Action against Privatisation of Health Services have condemned the Government of Madhya Pradesh’s recent moves towards privatising public health facilities. They argue that these actions, including outsourcing and the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model, will compromise the availability and accessibility of essential health services for the state’s citizens.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

A Hindu alternative to Valentine's Day? 'Shiv-Parvati was first love marriage in Universe'

By Rajiv Shah  The other day, I was searching on Google a quote on Maha Shivratri which I wanted to send to someone, a confirmed Shiv Bhakt, quite close to me -- with an underlying message to act positively instead of being negative. On top of the search, I chanced upon an article in, imagine!, a Nashik Corporation site which offered me something very unusual. 

Will Left victory in Sri Lanka deliver economic sovereignty plan, go beyond 'tired' IMF agenda?

By Atul Chandra, Vijay Prashad*  On September 22, 2024, the Sri Lankan election authority announced that Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) alliance won the presidential election. Dissanayake, who has been the leader of the left-wing JVP since 2014, defeated 37 other candidates, including the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) and his closest challenger Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya.