Skip to main content

Statistical fraud: Sample size 5 households, Gujarat OBC Muslims’ poverty rate 1.9%!

 Is the National Sample Survey (NSS) Organization, the statistical arm of the Government of India, seeking to play a “statistical fraud” by saying that overall Muslim poverty levels in rural Gujarat have gone down from 31 per cent in 2004-05 to 7.7 per cent in 2011-12? It would seem so if one looks at the NSS’ 2011-12 extremely small sample size for Gujarat’s OBC Muslims – just five households! Based on this sample size, the NSS’ unreleased report on monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) for socio-religious groups suggests that the OBC Muslims’ poverty rate went down from 40.5 to 1.9 per cent during the seven years.
In the second week of March 2014, a few newspapers carried a report that Gujarat had emerged as one of the top states in India where poverty among Muslims in both rural and urban areas has declined drastically in the last seven years. This was reportedly brought to light by a high-level committee formed under the Jawaharlal Nehru University professor, Amitabh Kundu. The committee was appointed by the Government of India in August 2013 to evaluate the socio-economic condition of the Muslim community during the period following the implementation of the Sachar Committee report on the condition of minorities in India, released in 2006.
Basing its findings on an unreleased National Sample Survey (NSS) Organization report on monthly per capita expenditure of socio-religious groups in 2011-12, the media reports said, the committee has highlighted that that, in rural Gujarat, the number of Muslims below poverty line (BPL) fell from 31 per cent in 2004-05 to a “measly” 7.7 per cent in 2011-12. Comparison of the same period reveals that those in the BPL population in urban areas also declined, from 42 per cent to 14.6 per cent. This happened at a time when the maximum MPCE (an indicator of economic well-being) of Muslims in rural Gujarat went up from Rs 209 to Rs 291. In urban areas, it shot up from Rs 259 to Rs 328 in the last seven years.
“I am neither a BJP supporter nor a Narendra Modi fan, but as far as the welfare of the Muslim community is concerned, the facts say that Gujarat did much better in the past seven years compared to other states,” Prof Kundu was quoted as saying. A right-wing website went gaga over the findings, and it reported how National Sample Survey (NSS) statistics have now confirmed that poverty level among Muslims in Gujarat has declined significantly in comparison to other states, “presently ruled by the parties which fight polls with agenda to lift the condition of people of the community.” The website also highlighted that in rural Gujarat, Muslim poverty has come down to 7.7 per cent – less the number of poor Muslims in rural Kerala, eight per cent!
There was nothing new in what the reports were been saying. A working paper by well-known Columbia University professor Arvind Panagariya and Vishal More, “Poverty by Social, Religious & Economic Groups in India and Its Largest States: 1993-94 to 2011-12” (October 2013), referring the unreleased MPCE data (quoted by the committee headed by Prof Kundu), had said, “In as many as seven out of the sixteen states for which we can credibly estimate poverty rates for both communities, the poverty rates for the Muslims have dropped below those for the Hindus. The seven states are: Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu.”
Muslims’ poverty levels (%) calculated by Kundu committee
The working paper adds, “In four of these seven states, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the poverty ratio for the Muslims is below ten per cent. In the fifth, Gujarat, at 11.4 percent, it is only marginally above the ten percent mark.” The paper doesn’t stop here. It says, the “perhaps the single most striking feature” found, on the basis of the 2011-12 NSS data, is, “In the rural areas, Gujarat leads with the lowest poverty ratio of 7.7 per cent for the Muslims. Other states with lower poverty ratio for the Muslims than Hindus are Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.”
Well-known economic commentator Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar, while analyzing the Pahagariya-More paper, was the first to see that there was something wrong with the NSS data, based on which the Kundu committee appeared to have reached its conclusions about a steep decline in the poverty levels in Gujarat. Writing in his blog swaminomics.org, he agrees that there may be good news for Muslims, as their poverty ratio declined in this seven-year period by 18.2 per cent, faster than the 15.6 per cent for Hindus, even though “the absolute level of Muslim poverty remains higher than of Hindus”.
Now coming to the “whopping surprise” of Panagariya and More – that “in as many as seven states, Muslims are less poor than Hindus” – Aiyar says, “Astonishingly, the rural Muslim poverty ratio is lowest of all in Gujarat, at 7.7 per cent. This is much lower than the urban ratio, and so raises the question whether it is a statistical quirk.” He adds, “Muslims in Gujarat were victims of terrible violence in 2002, and many still feel unsafe.” He sounds a note of caution with the data used by Panagariya-More to reach their conclusions: “The year-wise variations in some states look very steep, and seem to need a pinch of salt”. In Aiyar’s view, Panagariya and More conclusions were guided by the “rapid GDP growth in the seven years between 2004-05 and 2011-12”.
A deeper look into the data, which are part of the still unreleased Kundu committee report, suggests a much deeper malaise than what Aiyar has noted — “a statistical quirk”, which “need a pinch of salt.” A breakup of the Muslim poverty ratio suggests that in rural Gujarat (where the poverty ratios in are down to 7.7 per cent), other backward classes (OBC) Muslims’ poverty levels were 40.5 per cent in 2004-05. And these went to just 1.9 per cent in 2011-12! As against to this, the Other Muslims’ poverty levels in rural Gujarat have gone down at a much lower pace – during the same period, these have gone down from 23.2 per cent in 2004-05 to 18.7 per cent in 2011-12.
These data form part of an unpublished paper, prepared by Prof Kundu, who has clarified, through an e-mail, that there is no “typographical error” here, but are a result of “standard error”. To quote him: “The standard error in the estimates for different socio-economic groups in rural and urban areas would be high due to small sample size in the NSS.” He has said, “I looked at the disaggregated data for different socio-religious categories at the state level. The sample size for OBC Muslims in Gujarat, for example, is very small, even smaller than the size in 2004-05. I would therefore not be very confident in drawing conclusion for these sub-categories at the state level.”
And what is the sample size of OBC Muslims in Gujarat, based on which their poverty has allegedly gone down from 40.5 per cent to 1.9 per cent in the seven years in question? Prof Kundu says, “The sample size for OBC Muslims is five in 2011-12 and 25 in 2004-5. For total Muslims also the size is much below the acceptable level and with high standard error.” Hence, he points out, “The committee did not want to comment on the state-level estimates for socio-religious groups.” He adds, “Also, the growth rate in consumption expenditure and poverty reduction figures can be misleading due to their problem of uneven base.”
Prof Kundu further says, this is not just true of Gujarat but several states. To quote him, “The data for estimation of Muslim OBC poverty is below ten for a few states.” Overall, too, the Muslim sample size of OBC Muslims and Other Muslims taken together for several states is extremely small, hence it is impossible to reach a conclusion. This is one reason, he explains, that the committee under him has “not used the state-level NSS data for drawing inferences regarding the conditions of the Muslims.” Muslims’ small sample size is very small many states – it is “less than 100.” He underlines, “It is important that people discussing the results know about this.” Gujarat-based activists, working among poor Muslims, who suffered during the 2002 riots, believe, the data suggest nothing but a “statistical fraud.”

Comments

TRENDING

Irrational? Basis for fear among Hindus about being 'swamped' by Muslims

I was amused while reading an article titled "Ham Paanch, Hamare Pachees", shared on Facebook, by well-known policy analyst Mohan Guruswamy, an alumnus of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, and the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. Guruswamy, who has also worked as an advisor to the Finance Minister with the rank of Secretary to the Government of India, seeks to probe, as he himself states, "the supposed Muslim attitude to family planning"—a theme that was invoked by Narendra Modi as Gujarat Chief Minister ahead of the December 2002 assembly polls.

Why's Australian crackdown rattling Indian students? Whopping 25% fake visa applications

This is what happened several months ago. A teenager living in the housing society where I reside was sent to Australia to study at a university in Sydney with much fanfare. The parents, whom I often met as part of a group, would tell us how easily the boy got his admission with the help of "some well-meaning friends," adding that they had obtained an education loan to ensure he could study at a graduate school.

Tracking a lost link: Soviet-era legacy of Gujarati translator Atul Sawani

The other day, I received a message from a well-known activist, Raju Dipti, who runs an NGO called Jeevan Teerth in Koba village, near Gujarat’s capital, Gandhinagar. He was seeking the contact information of Atul Sawani, a translator of Russian books—mainly political and economic—into Gujarati for Progress Publishers during the Soviet era. He wanted to collect and hand over scanned soft copies, or if possible, hard copies, of Soviet books translated into Gujarati to Arvind Gupta, who currently lives in Pune and is undertaking the herculean task of collecting and making public soft copies of Soviet books that are no longer available in the market, both in English and Indian languages.

Gujarat slips in India Justice Report 2025: From model state to mid-table performer

Overall ranking in IJR reports The latest India Justice Report (IJR), prepared by legal experts with the backing of several civil society organisations and aimed at ranking the capacity of states to deliver justice, has found Gujarat—considered by India's rulers as a model state for others to follow—slipping to the 11th position from fourth in 2022.

Punishing senior citizens? Flipkart, Shopsy stop Cash on Delivery in Ahmedabad!

The other day, someone close to me attempted to order some goodies on Flipkart and its subsidiary Shopsy. After preparing a long list of items, this person, as usual, opted for the Cash on Delivery (popularly known as COD) option, as this senior citizen isn't very familiar with online prepaid payment methods like UPI, credit or debit cards, or online bank transfers through websites. In fact, she is hesitant to make online payments, fearing, "I may make a mistake," she explained, adding, "I read a lot about online frauds, so I always choose COD as it's safe. I have no knowledge of how to prepay online."

A conman, a demolition man: How 'prominent' scribes are defending Pritish Nandy

How to defend Pritish Nandy? That’s the big question some of his so-called fans seem to ponder, especially amidst sharp criticism of his alleged insensitivity during his journalistic career. One such incident involved the theft and publication of the birth certificate of Masaba Gupta, daughter of actor Neena Gupta, in the Illustrated Weekly of India, which Nandy was editing at the time. He reportedly did this to uncover the identity of Masaba’s father.

Of lingering shadow of Haren Pandya's murder during Modi's Gujarat days

Sunita Williams’ return to Earth has, ironically, reopened an old wound: the mysterious murder of her first cousin, the popular BJP leader Haren Pandya, in 2003. Initially a supporter of Narendra Modi, Haren turned against him, not sparing any opportunity to do things that would embarrass Modi. Social media and some online news portals, including The Wire , are abuzz with how Modi’s recent invitation to Sunita to visit India comes against the backdrop of how he, as Gujarat’s chief minister, didn’t care to offer any official protocol support during her 2007 visit to Gujarat.  

Area set aside in Ahmedabad for PM's affordable housing scheme 'has gone to big builders'

Following my article on affordable housing in Counterview, which quoted a top real estate consultant, I was informed that affordable housing—a scheme introduced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi—has deviated from its original intent. A former senior bureaucrat, whom I used to meet during my Sachivalaya days, told me that an entire area in Ahmedabad, designated for the scheme, has been used to construct costly houses instead. 

Just 5% Gujarat Dalit households 'recognise' social reformers who inspired Ambedkar

An interesting survey conducted across 22 districts and 32 villages in Gujarat sheds light on the representation of key social reformers in Dalit households. It suggests that while Dr. B.R. Ambedkar's photo was displayed in a majority of homes, images of Lord Buddha and the 19th-century reformist couple, Savitribai Phule and Jyotiba Phule, were not as commonly represented.